Elite Trader seems quieter than usual today
- Thread starter SteveNYC
- Start date
A great example of horrendous critical thinking skills:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=211996&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
Oh, was that from Canadian schools? My bad.
The market has an uncanny ability to predict. That is to say you never know unti later whether or not you're in a recession or depression but this is certainly acting like it. Lastly not all market dips presage a recession however this one every week makes it more of a self-fulfilling prophecy. I know plenty of people who have been burned all the way down thus far. At some point the long term buyers as well as the buy and holders will capitulate and that usually happens when they anounce the Death Cross. Buy then for the rally. It's sell the rallies since May. Until that changes same plan. Let's see where we end up August 28th. That's a SUNDAY.
It was 25 years from the pre29 highs `til they regained all that ground. Could be 25 again `til we revisit the tech bubble highs.
Of course, this is not to imply that the market's gonna move in a straight line for the next 20-some years. And if you thought that was possible after reading my post then you have a WHOLE LOT more market study to do before you are ready to trade.
A sample size of 1? Is that how you judge a trading system?
In reality, more than half the downside crosses don't work--they often happen just before a rally (i.e., 10-20% corrections).
However, if you use 50/200 as a trading system, it does beat buy-and-hold over the long-term. You miss the worst of real bear markets (2000-2002, 2008, etc.) and avoid getting whipsawed out during strong bull markets.
You're not reading again. Death crosses are usually a buy signal. But I still wouldn't step in yet because we have stuff flyin' around behind the scenes. We removed the risk of the Flash crash turnaround. This is more pronounced. I smell a lot of long desperation though. We are getting close to a good bounce. Unfortunately I mean this sincerely not as a money making opportunity but as a human suffering point of view we are going through some bad times for many people.....