Elite Trader School

[SunTrader]

Also what I posted was a 100% price move and a 66.6 or 2/3rds points per day move.

We don't need no stinkin' fibs - in this case.

Gann said use all the tools all the time.

I use funnymentals when looking at the bigger longer picture. Just not when I am trading.

Who trades (I'm talking small self-directed type) over months and years. No one I know. Especially with the continual uncertainty we all face.

If this is all about investors on Elite Trader Forum - my question is ... why?

 

[longandshort]

" any prove why this is so. "

Step one, spell correctly when writing an abstract - or anything else for that matter.

LOL do you really expect me, a trader, to listen to yet another Ivory Tower academic?

Just like a broke clock is right twice a day - those who can't, teach. Except in this case ........ spelling.

Geez you haven't read many papers before, have you? It's a student research paper under supervision of a professor. Formal hypothesis testing follows a specific format so you can review their methods and findings. I suppose you prefer zodiac symbols, though.

You should read this book (but you won't lol) Amazon.com: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals (9780470008744): Aronson, David: Books

 

[longandshort]

Also what I posted was a 100% price move and a 66.6 or 2/3rds points per day move.

We don't need no stinkin' fibs - in this case.

Gann said use all the tools all the time.

I use funnymentals when looking at the bigger longer picture. Just not when I am trading.

Who trades (I'm talking small self-directed type) over months and years. No one I know. Especially with the continual uncertainty we all face.

If this is all about investors on Elite Trader Forum - my question is ... why?

Trading is speculation about what investors will do.

 

[SunTrader]

Geez you haven't read many papers before, have you? It's a student research paper under supervision of a professor. Formal hypothesis testing follows a specific format so you can review their methods and findings. I suppose you prefer zodiac symbols, though.

You should read this book (but you won't lol) Amazon.com: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals (9780470008744): Aronson, David: Books

Have read, thank you. It's a good one.

He actually trades, not pontificates.

 

[SunTrader]

Trading is speculation about what investors will do.

no it isn't.

If I trade an eMini or two or ten for the next couple of minutes/hours I couldn't care less what investors are thinking about next quarter or year or decade.

That might be the way YOU trade. In case you hadn't noticed one size does not fit all when it comes to traders.

 

[longandshort]

Have read, thank you. It's a good one.

He actually trades, not pontificates.

Then you missed the entire point of his book, which is that there is little to no predictive value in technical indicators.

If you are trading, the best price signal is momentum. In fact, I provided a link to a great paper which details methods that can improve your trend analysis (buy with the trend, buy dips in the trend, etc.). Which Trend Is Your Friend? by Ari Levine, Lasse Heje Pedersen :: SSRN

 

[longandshort]

no it isn't.

If I trade an eMini or two or ten for the next couple of minutes/hours I couldn't care less what investors are thinking about next quarter or year or decade.

That might be the way YOU trade. In case you hadn't noticed one size does not fit all when it comes to traders.

You are making an implicit bet that there will be someone for you to sell to at a price better than what you bought it at. What would drive that behavior? If a price is falling, why wouldn't it continue to fall? There must be a perception of value or a characteristic about a future buyer/seller that drives your action. Otherwise, you are just admitting that it's random.

 

[SunTrader]

Then you missed the entire point of his book, which is that there is little to no predictive value in technical indicators.

If you are trading, the best price signal is momentum. In fact, I provided a link to a great paper which details methods that can improve your trend analysis (buy with the trend, buy dips in the trend, etc.). Which Trend Is Your Friend? by Ari Levine, Lasse Heje Pedersen :: SSRN

I said I read. I didn't say I agreed with all the book has to say:-

My broken clock was right again - in this case NDX:-

 

[longandshort]

I said I read. I didn't say I agreed with all the book has to say:-

My broken clock was right again - in this case NDX:-
View attachment 263520

lol this is also what the book warned against -- overfitting data lol. How about you make the next 10 trades using fibs and then tell me what the win/loss ratio was. Also, your timeframe looks really long for a "trader"....

 

[SunTrader]

You are making an implicit bet that there will be someone for you to sell to at a price better than what you bought it at. What would drive that behavior? If a price is falling, why wouldn't it continue to fall? There must be a perception of value or a characteristic about a future buyer/seller that drives your action. Otherwise, you are just admitting that it's random.

Of course I am. But that buyer may be just like me - looking to get in and get out. And based on volume/open interest numbers - very likely.