Eliminating half of the risk - A practical options research

E

earth_imperator

Eliminating Half Of The Risk - A Practical Options Research

When trading options, the two most important changing values (ie. the risk sources) are
1) the price development of the underlying [price risk], and
2) the IV development of the option strike [IV risk].

This means an options trader has to consider and predict the development
of both of these risk variables for the whole duration of the option, ie. till expiry.
This is very hard to predict or to master.

A better alternative would be to use an options strategy that eliminates
one of these risk sources by "neutralizing" it, ie. zeroing out its negative effect.

Therefore the solution lies in the answers to these questions:
1) Which options strategies are IV-change neutral?
2) Which options strategies are price-change neutral?

The answer can of course lie only in options strategies with >= 2 legs,
like option spreads (ShortPut + LongPut, or ShortCall + LongCall,
or Call + Put (Straddle, Strangle), or Butterfly or Condor (3 or 4 legs), etc.

Questions:
Which is/are the best IV-neutral options strategy/ies?
Which is/are the best price-neutral options strategy/ies?

PS: price-change here of course means the change in the price of the underlying asset (stock, index, ETF, commodity etc),
and not the change in the option premium.
 
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lol achieving vol-neutrality in a vertical requires it to be deeply in or otm with all legs or minimal strike width. Or a pure arb like in the conversion and box markets. Rolls are neutral arbs across tenors. Neutral in the sense of no Greek sensitivity outside rho for arbs.

You can achieve root-time neutrality in calendars/diagonals but you’re an idiot and that would be pointless to discuss.
 
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earth_imperator said:
Eliminating Half Of The Risk - A Practical Options Research

When trading options, the two most important changing values (ie. the risk sources) are
1) the price development of the underlying [price risk], and
2) the IV development of the option strike [IV risk].

This means an options trader has to consider and predict the development
of both of these risk variables for the whole duration of the option, ie. till expiry.
This is very hard to predict or to master.

A better alternative would be to use an options strategy that eliminates
one of these risk sources by "neutralizing" it, ie. zeroing out its negative effect.

Therefore the solution lies in the answers to these questions:
1) Which options strategies are IV-change neutral?
2) Which options strategies are price-change neutral?

The answer can of course lie only in options strategies with >= 2 legs,
like option spreads (ShortPut + LongPut, or ShortCall + LongCall,
or Call + Put (Straddle, Strangle), or Butterfly or Condor (3 or 4 legs), etc.

Questions:
Which is/are the best IV-neutral options strategy/ies?
Which is/are the best price-neutral options strategy/ies?

PS: price-change here of course means the change in the price of the underlying asset (stock, index, ETF, commodity etc),
and not the change in the option premium.
More...

As said above, the two main risk sources with options are price-change of the underlying, and IV-change of the option strike.
Here a full table of the risk cases:
Risk_is.png


Isn't that an ideal task for a quantum computer?... :)
 
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The above said method of eliminating/reducing risk is the static method (you do it once at start).
It eliminates only one of the two risk sources.

Another method of eliminating/reducing risk is of course by constantly adjusting (dynamic method) the position using hedge methods like delta-hedging and vega-hedging. With these methods one can eliminate not only one, but can eliminate even both risks. But this requires much capital and much active trading.
For this latter type of risk reduction methods see also:
- What Is Delta Neutral?
- What Is Vega Neutral?
- What Is Gamma Neutral?
- What Is Delta-Gamma Hedging?
... :)

If a shortseller can do a good dynamic hedging then it should be possible to keep the whole credit one receives from the shortselling, or most of it... IMO... Ie. then it becomes a "low-risk trade", a "sure thing" so to say...
 
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Let me save you from years of mental masturbation....

Focus on #1. Put your effort into becoming proficient at directional trading...
If you can do that,everything will fall into place.

Skew,sticky delta,sticky strike are good info,but i do not believe thats what puts bread on the table.

As a retail guy,I dont think thats where you make real money...

Get proficient at direction,and then understand which option stategy offers the best risk reward,POP, edge per your assumptions...

IMHO,Delta and/or Long vol makes the RETAIL guy rich...




earth_imperator said:
Eliminating Half Of The Risk - A Practical Options Research

When trading options, the two most important changing values (ie. the risk sources) are
1) the price development of the underlying [price risk], and
2) the IV development of the option strike [IV risk].

This means an options trader has to consider and predict the development
of both of these risk variables for the whole duration of the option, ie. till expiry.
This is very hard to predict or to master.

A better alternative would be to use an options strategy that eliminates
one of these risk sources by "neutralizing" it, ie. zeroing out its negative effect.

Therefore the solution lies in the answers to these questions:
1) Which options strategies are IV-change neutral?
2) Which options strategies are price-change neutral?

The answer can of course lie only in options strategies with >= 2 legs,
like option spreads (ShortPut + LongPut, or ShortCall + LongCall,
or Call + Put (Straddle, Strangle), or Butterfly or Condor (3 or 4 legs), etc.

Questions:
Which is/are the best IV-neutral options strategy/ies?
Which is/are the best price-neutral options strategy/ies?

PS: price-change here of course means the change in the price of the underlying asset (stock, index, ETF, commodity etc),
and not the change in the option premium.
More...
 
@taowave, you seem not to be the brightest :), because even if "becoming proficient at directional trading", there still remains the IV risk! Or do you rather trade only the underlying stock etc, but not the options?
Then I wonder what you are doing in this options board at all?...
Clearly, your answers and actions don't make any sense, as you are very illogical, man! Q.E.D. :)


Very illogical, illogical, illogical... :-)
 
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With all due respect...How do i phrase this...STFU.....

You haven't made one trade in your life and have no clue to which end is up,and you are blabbering on in another thread about making 30 percent plus..per month...while not comprehending assignment risk..

So go trade boxes and jelly rolls,earn the risk free rate and yank yourself off in your moms basement:)



earth_imperator said:
@taowave, you seem not to be the brightest :), because even if "becoming proficient at directional trading", there still remains the IV risk! Or do you rather trade only the underlying stock etc, but not the options?
Then I wonder what you are doing in this options board at all?...
Clearly, your answers and actions don't make any sense, as you are very illogical, man! Q.E.D. :)


Very illogical, illogical, illogical... :)
More...
 
Since I currently specialize in options spreads (all variations: vertical, horizontal/calendar, diagonal),
I'm hopeful to find a method to eliminate the IV risk in such spread trades.

Rationale for this: since such an option spread trade consists of a ShortPut + LongPut (or ShortCall + LongCall) then a rising or falling IV should lead to a net zero result (ie. for one leg it's good and for the other leg a bad case, resulting in a neutral outcome).
But since IV at expiration doesn't play any role, then the above said mechanism unfortunately doesn't work at expiration... :-(

But there is IMO a workaround (a trick, a loophole) as follows: one must trade with the intention to close it not later than say about 1 month before expiry, so that the above said neutralization effect for IV changes still will function (since it all happens much before expiry).

I'm currently going to research this case; need to write some code to simulate it...
 
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oml that only works for arbitrarily narrow spreads. Sure, the vega is low but now you're trading a binary (up or down). If you choose to combo (bull cs, bear ps) then you're going to be trading a $0ish vega iron fly with a 95/100 payout for long gamma and the inverse for the short gamma fly with a 5% probability of sticking inside the wings.

The thing won't have any significant exposures a month to exp. You specialize in this?
 
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