Trade between China and the United States is good for both economies.
Election week ahead: Bull vs Bear forces?
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
If there is a clear, uncontested Trump win late Tuesday night / Wednesday morning, look for the ES to open about 200 - 300 S&P points locked limit-up higher. Finish the year around 3800-4000 S&P. Biden win + Republican senate, S&P probably goes a little higher on Wednesday. Biden win + Dem senate, not sure what happens to the S&P, but the dollar will get absolutely killed -- green new deal + huge deficits. Hate to say it, but I agree with your long yuan short USD Biden hedge.
Those strangles are not cheap. Would need a really big move for them to pay. I'd rather cut S&P exposure here and replace with naked call or call verticals to reduce risk.
I need the market to go down, so it won't, you're welcome if you're on the long side.
You may find a quick look at how much deficits have grown in the last 3 years compared to the 4 years before that to be instructive (the first year of a President's term is under their predecessor's budget). Certainly deficits may go up under Biden more than they would under Trump, but it seems a bit silly to state that like it's a foregone conclusion when they were actually lower when Biden was last in office than when Trump was with Republican control of both houses. Turns out huge tax cuts tend to balloon deficits just as much as increased spending, who knew? If anything, Democratic administrations since Clinton have all reduced deficits from what they inherited, so again while past performance is no guarantee of future results it does seem odd one would completely ignore it.
All that aside, the dollar's decline was supposedly both imminent and inevitable in 2008 with the same setup of a Democratic trifecta, or as you could call it, the last time Republicans cared about deficits, right? How did that work out for anyone who invested on that thesis from 2008 to 2016?
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Yup, strangles aren't worth it.
I'm waiting for a plunge to jump in and buy some far OTM SPY calls.
Zero or hero trade
Yeah, but it'll probably come out as "Anything Trump happened would've right none".
Right. Our wives can buy cheap plastic junk at Wally-World to clog up the 3 car garage, and the Chinese can reverse engineer our hypersonic missles' circuit boards. Win/win there.