Election theme

[Cuddles]

It's $6T? Seriously?

I am backing a Canadian machine tool manufacturer. I may need a bailout.

get sum:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/03/24/trump-coronavirus-congress-economic-stimulus/
The package would extend extraordinary — and unprecedented — taxpayer assistance to potentially millions of American and foreign companies that have been hammered by the fast-moving economic crisis. It would extend one-time cash payments to most Americans in an effort to flood the economy with money. The bill is being rushed through Congress without public hearings or formal review, and it’s unclear how effective the measures would be in arresting the economy’s sudden fall.

It's 2T. The 4T number is American Skandia's preeminent economist's guess on Fed QE.

yeah, I'm still familiarizing myself w/bailouts. Thanks for clarifying. This sounded like it was just what's added up to now w/lowering interest rates and what's in the works? Basically no new money as far as I could tell?

 

[PoopyDeek]

get sum:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/03/24/trump-coronavirus-congress-economic-stimulus/
The package would extend extraordinary — and unprecedented — taxpayer assistance to potentially millions of American and foreign companies that have been hammered by the fast-moving economic crisis. It would extend one-time cash payments to most Americans in an effort to flood the economy with money. The bill is being rushed through Congress without public hearings or formal review, and it’s unclear how effective the measures would be in arresting the economy’s sudden fall.


yeah, I'm still familiarizing myself w/bailouts. Thanks for clarifying. This sounded like it was just what's added up to now w/lowering interest rates and what's in the works? Basically no new money as far as I could tell?

The $4T is quantifiable as new purchases. Basically buying toxic BBB- shit from Goldman at par that was trading at sixty cents the day before. Oh yeah, and buying Treasuries from Primary Dealers at two handles over marketable.

The Canadian mind-fuck was just inherited from in-laws. Anyone need a Kern 5-axis? Light use.

 

[PoopyDeek]

I am long shares from 145.8x average. I don't want to dump this fly but I think the bill passes.

Out 148.4 avg for a gain of 2.6. Remain long the fly from 0.48.

 

[PoopyDeek]

BA could close under 160 today. The APR 90/140/240 231P fly is 40 mid. Long. Would be done as the synthetic (one lot bear call spread at 140/240) and (two lot bull put spread at 90/140). 40 risk. Shares 170.5 last.

 

[Cuddles]

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm

vote stream

 

[PoopyDeek]

The SPX JAN21 3000/3400C 1x3 short backspread is trading at $1-2 to the buy. It's very good here as the vols are 26x25. One handle on the vol-line separated by 400 points. Mkt drops and you can effect the 132C for cheap.

Conservatively; vols at SPX 3400 will be 23x15 (3000/3400) from 26x25 (3000/3400) currently.

 

[Cuddles]

The SPX JAN21 3000/3400C 1x3 short backspread is trading at $1-2 to the buy. It's very good here as the vols are 26x25. One handle on the vol-line separated by 400 points. Mkt drops and you can effect the 132C for cheap.

Conservatively; vols at SPX 3400 will be 23x15 (3000/3400) from 26x25 (3000/3400) currently.

odds this rally holds through tomorrow? I've got a few longs that kept wanting to head south before congress reconvened. Wait for signature?

 

[PoopyDeek]

odds this rally holds through tomorrow? I've got a few longs that kept wanting to head south before congress reconvened. Wait for signature?

Passage is in the mkt. Vols remain high so the rally is seen as suspect. My guess is that we retest 2520 but it holds. No idea beyond that price.

 

[Cuddles]

Passage is in the mkt. Vols remain high so the rally is seen as suspect. My guess is that we retest 2520 but it holds. No idea beyond that price.

These GOP a-holes are going to delay this vote past the close aren't they? So much for "mah urgency".

 

[PoopyDeek]

I am building a short here basis SPX 2597 cash. BBL with positions.