Election predictions

Quote from Pekelo:



Giuliani's plan is to take whole FL with its winner-takes-all system and 57 delegates. NY and NJ have the same system, so this is a big bet on Rudy's behalf and as the others catching up in FL according to the latest polls, it might backfire....
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Just wanted to make sure you understand that winner-take-all doesn't mean that whoever wins the state gets all the delegates at this point.

Many states are "winner-take-all" states. It generally means that CD delegates are allotted to the candidate who wins in each respective district, while AL delegates are given to the statewide winner. This makes the results a bit more interesting. A landslide winner results in pretty much all delegates going to one candidate, but a very close race between two candidates results in very strange results.

If a candidate loses by only 1-2%, they might get several delegates if they happen to pull off wins in the less populated districts and only got beat in the more densely populated areas. OTOH, if that person consistently loses by 1-2% in every district, then he won't get any delegates at all.

A really close 3-way race gets even more interesting.
 
Hmmmm...

I just found an interesting rule though.

Florida primary rules state that in the case of a penalty, all remaining delegates are declared At-Large for the national convention. This would result in the state truly becoming a winner-take-all state, meaning there really are 57-delegates for the statewide winner.
 
Quote from Cache Landing:

If a candidate loses by only 1-2%, they might get several delegates if they happen to pull off wins in the less populated districts and only got beat in the more densely populated areas. OTOH,
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This happened in SC, where McCain vs. Huckabee was 33-30%, and McCain got 19 delegates and Huckabee 5...
 
i need a caption for this pic, any suggestions?


hillaryblackkidax9.jpg
 
Quote from Pekelo:


Giuliani's plan is to take whole FL with its winner-takes-all system and 57 delegates. NY and NJ have the same system, so this is a big bet on Rudy's behalf and as the others catching up in FL according to the latest polls, it might backfire....
More...

Giuliani's camp must be scared out of their minds right now.

Latest polls show Romney edging ahead in Florida by gaining 7% in one week as Huckabee and Thompson drop. This gives us a bit of a picture into the minds of Floridians. I don't care much for single polls, but the trends hint at the following.

Giuliani and McCain are fighting for the same votes.

Huckabee, Thompson, and Romney are fighting for votes.

If Thompson drops out without endorsing McCain, it will almost positively be Mitt who wins it. Huckabee would really have to do something in the upcoming debate to steal the votes back from Mitt.

Last I heard, Thompson was considering trying to get on Mac's team as VP, but more recent statements are positioning him as a VP candidate for whomever wins the nomination. I had suspected that the only reason he was staying in for SC was to steal votes from Huck and ensure the win for Mac. That plan still somewhat works in Florida as he steals a small number of votes from Huck and a larger number from Romney. I just don't think it is as effective as in SC. Among conservatives, Romney has a commanding lead at close to 30%, and there aren't nearly as many moderates in Florida who vote in the primary since it is restricted to GOP registered voters only. He won't be attending the debate and staying on the ballot will confirm my suspicions that he is in it to help Mac.

In any case, expect Giuliani to come out swinging in the debate. $8MM is a lot to waste for a 3rd place finish which is where he last polled. His campaign is broke now and many employees are now volunteers. There is a chance that he will go after Romney to try to slow his momentum, but the smarter route would be to go after McCain's liberal past. Rudy and Mac are fighting over a relatively small portion of moderates, and Rudy needs to stomp on Mac. Personally, I don't think Mac will be ready for it. He can't defend himself against anything Rudy will throw at him.
 
Well, Fred just threw in the towel. Personally I think he's too smart to align with Mac, but you never know. I just think he wants a serious VP shot and the nominee is still up in the air. I'd be surprised if he took a gamble on Mac. But if Mitt wins Florida, I wouldn't be surprised to see fred line up behind him.
 
McCain may have peaked. Romney is killing him among real republicans.

McCain might have been a good VP choice for Romney, as he could play the Dick Cheney role, but his attacks on Romney have probably poisoned that well. Thompson would be a good VP for Romney or Guiliani, as he is popular in the south and not threatening to other regions.

Romney appears to me to be by far the strongest Republican candidate. If he could carry Mass or Michigan in the general, no way the democrats can win. I can't see another republican doing that. That's why national polls are worse than meaningless. It doesn't matter if a republican loses NY and California by .1% or 20%; you lose it and you don't get any electoral votes.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

McCain may have peaked. Romney is killing him among real republicans.

McCain might have been a good VP choice for Romney, as he could play the Dick Cheney role, but his attacks on Romney have probably poisoned that well. Thompson would be a good VP for Romney or Guiliani, as he is popular in the south and not threatening to other regions.

Romney appears to me to be by far the strongest Republican candidate. If he could carry Mass or Michigan in the general, no way the democrats can win. I can't see another republican doing that. That's why national polls are worse than meaningless. It doesn't matter if a republican loses NY and California by .1% or 20%; you lose it and you don't get any electoral votes.
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Yeah, I don't see a Mitt/Mac ticket. Mac has always hated Mitt and they aren't shy about proclaiming their dislike for each other. Mac would do very little for Mitt in the generals. He would get a few independents but not enough to make a difference in the electoral college.

Mitt alone will likely carry both Mass and Mich and ensure that DEMs don't get NH or Nevada which are becoming increasingly liberal. Jeb Bush is supposedly endorsing Mitt also which will help in Florida.

Huck would help Mitt in Arkansas against Clinton but I still think the Dems take Arkansas this year. So far Mitt is doing just as well among evangelicals as Huck is, so beyond that I don't think Huck helps much.

Thompson helps the most by ensuring the southern states and adding an element of true conservatism to the ticket.

Analysts get preoccupied with how many popular votes a candidate might be able to swing. We all know that doesn't matter.
 
According to the latest polls McCain is taking over the lead from Rudy in NY state. Huckabee is running low on money, he is not taking journalists with him anymore....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

According to the latest polls McCain is taking over the lead from Rudy in NY state. Huckabee is running low on money, he is not taking journalists with him anymore....
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Yeah, it's shaping up to be a Mitt vs Mac throwdown after Florida. If Rudy is gone then Mac will have a good showing in the large states and Mitt is the only one with enough money to campaign in the smaller states. It'll be nice to see debates narrowed down to only a few candidates. Unfortunately I don't think Huck or Rudy will leave the race until after Super Tuesday.
 
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