Election Plays?

[kmiklas]

DISCLAIMER: This is not a political post, it is a post about trading the election.

Anyone here making any election plays tomorrow or later in the week? I'm debating whether I want to take a swing or two.

Note today's SPY pop on the news that the FBI would NOT press charges on Hillary. This after 9 days of decline that began on the same day that the FBI re-opened the case against her. Can we conclude that the market likes her?

I'm wondering if it's smart to go long on the SPY if Hillary wins/is winning, or short if Trump has the edge.

Any opinion on an election play like this?

Thx,
Keith :^)

 

[ET180]

I think it's safe to go long SPY probably until New Years. Doesn't look like there are any coal companies left to short. Rate hike coming either way so maybe good idea to get long XLF / short gold miners. Oh, and how could I forget...short the VIX.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

wondering if it's smart to go long on the SPY if Hillary wins/is winning, or short if Trump has the edge.

Any opinion on an election play like this?
Keith

"smart" or so-called smart is a funny word in trading -->

 

[Robert Morse]

To me, it is similar to trading earnings. The front month options are skewed higher than the back months. You have to decide if the skew is wrong or pick a direction.

Not for me.

 

[931]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=trump,clinton,donald trump,hillary clinton,mcdonalds

 

[gkadir]

I think this analysis by Goldman Sacs will be helpful to know as the results come in state by state.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...tesy-of-goldman-sachs-2016-11-07?link=sfmw_fb

 

[cdcaveman]

Hillary wins.. no pressure on fed... Fed raises rates extremely slow... Every rate hike will cause asset deflation...

 

[Humpy]

The betting odds give Hillary a clear lead.
Hillary 1/5
Trump 4/1

Hillary had it won until the email scandal showed what a bare faced liar she is.
Trump could have cruised home with ease but couldn't stop groping women, insulting large groups etc.
A couple of flawed individuals who have been found out.

But fear not. Us arse licking Brits will still make the winner welcome in the UK.

 

[Zzzz1]

I like the following better:

I think this analysis by Goldman Sacs will be helpful to know as the results come in state by state.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...tesy-of-goldman-sachs-2016-11-07?link=sfmw_fb

 

[Spectre2007]