Election Night 2022 Thread

Playbook: “According to the latest numbers from Jon Ralston and Sean Golonka of the Nevada Independent, there are about 110,000 mail ballots left to be counted from the two big urban counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno).”

“Even if Cortez Masto and Laxalt split those ballots well below her current rate of 65%-30%, Ralston notes, she will overtake Laxalt. There are also some outstanding rural ballots that will help Laxalt, and there are things like provisional ballots and cured ballots that all have to be tabulated by Saturday.”

“But according to the data nerds here, based on the known universe of outstanding ballots, Cortez Masto has a path to victory. And with Sen. Mark Kelly leading Blake Masters in Arizona by five points with 76% of the vote in, the Democrats could keep the Senate even without winning the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff.”


I talked to Whitmer in NV and she says Masto cannot lose with the trend out of Clark Co.
 
Nah, Biden's unpopular alright, the people understood what is on the ballot, and it's not his popularity

https://apnews.com/article/2022-mid...en-inflation-cf4dffe87a7c2fd1bdd58df0346e15dc
VoteCast: Inflation top concern, but democracy a worry too

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...r-concerns-nbc-news-exit-poll-finds-rcna56258
Inflation and abortion lead the list of voter concerns, edging out crime, NBC News Exit Poll finds
A majority of midterm voters said they're dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the U.S., while a plurality said President Joe Biden's policies are hurting the country.
 
Abortion being a higher issue than the polls indicated leading up to the election was the top factor. Michael Moore predicted this would happen, but he might have overstated it. I definitely think it helped most in PA where the gubernatorial candidate (Mastriano) was really extreme on the issue. This probably also helped put Fetterman over the top.
 
I talked to Whitmer in NV and she says Masto cannot lose with the trend out of Clark Co.
Laxalt is is down 6 pts in Clark and up in all other counties
If these averages hold Masto wont win

In Clark County -- Nevada's most populous, home to some 70% of the state's electorate -- Registrar Joe Gloria said at a Thursday afternoon news conference that there are there are still 50,000 outstanding ballots that need to be counted.

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Laxalt is is down 6 pts in Clark and up in all other counties
If these averages hold Masto wont win

In Clark County -- Nevada's most populous, home to some 70% of the state's electorate -- Registrar Joe Gloria said at a Thursday afternoon news conference that there are there are still 50,000 outstanding ballots that need to be counted.

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They think it can be like 65% or 70%, because it's mail-in.
 
They think it can be like 65% or 70%, because it's mail-in.
With 50,000 votes left in Clark county Mastro needs to win 33,000 = 66%
But she will need to overcome all the other counties outstanding votes, majority red
 
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