Laxalt: I want a recount
Government: That's fine, but you have to pay for it.
Laxalt: Nevermind
Election Night 2022 Thread
- Thread starter kmgilroy89
- Start date
Government: That's fine, but you have to pay for it.
Laxalt: Nevermind
control is relative. We need that runoff to cancel out one of the turncoats (sinema/munchin). Dems will likely scuttle that race though because they would rather have gridlock (not that the House helps any).
After seeing Kelly win running as an unapologetic progressive she might get on board the progressive train.She is not going to have the same democrat voter support Kelly.There are Dems like me who will vote for Kelly,Fetterman or Warnock but not Senima or Manchin.
It might not matter though if Dems lose The House which seems likely.
she won as a "prog", came out of the green party after all, (think Tulsi). No one's buying her bullshit any more.
Thousands of people involved, an easily traceable process, audits and investigations, lawsuits, states which are both democrat and republican controlled.... and it's just so, so obvious that fraud is going on all over the place! And yet, zero actual proof of fraud so far. It must be the best run conspiracy in the history of mankind.
Looking deeper into the map, I think it's still possible the Democrat's keep the House. CNN has it 211-204 right now with 20 seats up for grabs. This means Democrats need 14 more seats while the Republicans only need 7 (or half that). That's 2-1. However, I've been seeing Democrats closing the gap over the last few days and if we go district by district:
Non-CA districts favoring Democrats:
AK: Peltoa is at 47.3% with 72% in (it's ranked choice, but the 2 Republicans are at 26.6% and 24.2%, I can see some crossover vote)
ME-2: Golden is at 49.2% with 88% in (Ranked choice as well, I think this one strongly favors him, especially since an independent is at 6.9%)
NM-2: Favoring Dems 50.3-49.7 with 99% in (I think this should heavily favor Democrats as .6% is a lot to make up with 1% left)
CO-8: Favoring Dems 48.4-47.8 with 97% in (This is a solid lead, highly unlikely to flip)
AZ-1: Favoring Dems 50.4-49.6 with 90% in (This could flip and if it does it could help flip the governor's race, but so far I've seen no indication that the GOP is gaining much ground as new ballots are counted)
OR-6: Favoring Dems 49.8-47.9 with 80% in (I know nothing about the outstanding ballots in OR so definitely not confident one way or the other as to which way it will go)
Non-CA districts favoring Republicans:
NY-22: Favoring GOP 50.7-49.2 with 94% in (Republicans seem to have a decent advantage here)
AZ-6: Favoring GOP 50.2-49.8 with 91% in (This could easily flip depending on where the remaining votes are, mail-ins in Tucson would make it more Democratic)
CO-3: Unfortunately favoring Bobo the Clown 50.2-49.8 with 99% in (If I had the ability to flip one close seat it would be this one, but I think Bobo is a strong favorite here. Hopefully she's gone in 2024. After this embarrassment there's a good chance she doesn't run and she takes that dream job on FOX News)
OR-5: 51.1-48.8 with 93% in (This is a larger lead with more reporting than the other OR district, I'm pretty sure I've seen the 2 districts flip who has the lead over the past few days, makes sense that this would be more GOP being further east)
So without CA, that's 6-4 for Democrats based on current leads, some stronger than others. That would bring the totals to 215-210, meaning that Democrats would need to win CA 8-2. Can they do it?
CA-49: Favoring Dems 52.3-47.7 with 75% in (Dems have an incumbent here, I make them the favorites)
CA-47: Favoring Dems 51.3-48.7 with 70% in (Dems have an incumbent here, Porter has been gaining as more votes have been coming in, probably the favorite)
CA-21: Favoring Dems 54.6-45.4 with 49% in (Dems have sizeable lead, but the district doesn't know how to count, this is an incumbent seat so I favor the Dems )
CA-9: Favoring Dems 56.3-43.7 with 36% in (Another sizeable Dem lead in a district that really doesn't know how to count, but incumbency advantage)
CA-3: Favoring GOP 53.0-47.0 with 51% in (no major statistical advantage, too early, but Dem won by 9 points in 2020 so I would actually favor a Dem comeback)
CA-13 Favoring GOP 50.1-49.9 with 46% in (no statistical advantage, completely redrawn district that was heavily Democratic before, but with these numbers you can pretty much flip a coin not knowing the makeup of the votes counted thus far)
CA-22 Favoring GOP 52.5-47.5 with 39% in (Valadao is one of 2 House 10 remaining that voted to impeach Trump, he's got the lead, is an incumbent, showed his independence, despite 61% of the vote remaining, I think this favors him)
CA-27 Favoring GOP 55.4-44.6 with 53% in (Garcia is the incumbent, large lead, don't know the remaining breakdown, but I have to think this strongly favors the GOP)
CA-45 Favoring GOP 53.8-46.2 with 62% in (Steel is the incumbent, decent lead, could lose with only 38% to go, but favored IMO)
CA-41 Favoring GOP 50.7-49.3 with 53% in (Calvert is the incumbent, very small lead, could definitely lose with 47% to go)
So...just looking at where the Democrats are currently favored we would 221-214 GOP for the House. However, if the CA vote slightly breaks to the Democrats we have 219-216 for the GOP as CA-3 and CA-13 are likely to flip. AZ-5 and OR-6 could flip as well based on the small GOP leads depending on the remaining ballot composition. That would give the Democrats a 218-217 lead. Unfortunately, of all the districts mentioned, I think Democrats are least likely to flip CO-3, which would be my preferred choice.
NBC's model has been shrinking almost everyday for the GOP's lead. It's gone from 225-210 GOP to 219-216 GOP over the past few days. I think that 219-216 GOP is highly likely to be the final number in which case good luck to the GOP in rallying the troops.
Non-CA districts favoring Democrats:
AK: Peltoa is at 47.3% with 72% in (it's ranked choice, but the 2 Republicans are at 26.6% and 24.2%, I can see some crossover vote)
ME-2: Golden is at 49.2% with 88% in (Ranked choice as well, I think this one strongly favors him, especially since an independent is at 6.9%)
NM-2: Favoring Dems 50.3-49.7 with 99% in (I think this should heavily favor Democrats as .6% is a lot to make up with 1% left)
CO-8: Favoring Dems 48.4-47.8 with 97% in (This is a solid lead, highly unlikely to flip)
AZ-1: Favoring Dems 50.4-49.6 with 90% in (This could flip and if it does it could help flip the governor's race, but so far I've seen no indication that the GOP is gaining much ground as new ballots are counted)
OR-6: Favoring Dems 49.8-47.9 with 80% in (I know nothing about the outstanding ballots in OR so definitely not confident one way or the other as to which way it will go)
Non-CA districts favoring Republicans:
NY-22: Favoring GOP 50.7-49.2 with 94% in (Republicans seem to have a decent advantage here)
AZ-6: Favoring GOP 50.2-49.8 with 91% in (This could easily flip depending on where the remaining votes are, mail-ins in Tucson would make it more Democratic)
CO-3: Unfortunately favoring Bobo the Clown 50.2-49.8 with 99% in (If I had the ability to flip one close seat it would be this one, but I think Bobo is a strong favorite here. Hopefully she's gone in 2024. After this embarrassment there's a good chance she doesn't run and she takes that dream job on FOX News)
OR-5: 51.1-48.8 with 93% in (This is a larger lead with more reporting than the other OR district, I'm pretty sure I've seen the 2 districts flip who has the lead over the past few days, makes sense that this would be more GOP being further east)
So without CA, that's 6-4 for Democrats based on current leads, some stronger than others. That would bring the totals to 215-210, meaning that Democrats would need to win CA 8-2. Can they do it?
CA-49: Favoring Dems 52.3-47.7 with 75% in (Dems have an incumbent here, I make them the favorites)
CA-47: Favoring Dems 51.3-48.7 with 70% in (Dems have an incumbent here, Porter has been gaining as more votes have been coming in, probably the favorite)
CA-21: Favoring Dems 54.6-45.4 with 49% in (Dems have sizeable lead, but the district doesn't know how to count, this is an incumbent seat so I favor the Dems )
CA-9: Favoring Dems 56.3-43.7 with 36% in (Another sizeable Dem lead in a district that really doesn't know how to count, but incumbency advantage)
CA-3: Favoring GOP 53.0-47.0 with 51% in (no major statistical advantage, too early, but Dem won by 9 points in 2020 so I would actually favor a Dem comeback)
CA-13 Favoring GOP 50.1-49.9 with 46% in (no statistical advantage, completely redrawn district that was heavily Democratic before, but with these numbers you can pretty much flip a coin not knowing the makeup of the votes counted thus far)
CA-22 Favoring GOP 52.5-47.5 with 39% in (Valadao is one of 2 House 10 remaining that voted to impeach Trump, he's got the lead, is an incumbent, showed his independence, despite 61% of the vote remaining, I think this favors him)
CA-27 Favoring GOP 55.4-44.6 with 53% in (Garcia is the incumbent, large lead, don't know the remaining breakdown, but I have to think this strongly favors the GOP)
CA-45 Favoring GOP 53.8-46.2 with 62% in (Steel is the incumbent, decent lead, could lose with only 38% to go, but favored IMO)
CA-41 Favoring GOP 50.7-49.3 with 53% in (Calvert is the incumbent, very small lead, could definitely lose with 47% to go)
So...just looking at where the Democrats are currently favored we would 221-214 GOP for the House. However, if the CA vote slightly breaks to the Democrats we have 219-216 for the GOP as CA-3 and CA-13 are likely to flip. AZ-5 and OR-6 could flip as well based on the small GOP leads depending on the remaining ballot composition. That would give the Democrats a 218-217 lead. Unfortunately, of all the districts mentioned, I think Democrats are least likely to flip CO-3, which would be my preferred choice.
NBC's model has been shrinking almost everyday for the GOP's lead. It's gone from 225-210 GOP to 219-216 GOP over the past few days. I think that 219-216 GOP is highly likely to be the final number in which case good luck to the GOP in rallying the troops.
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I think Warnock is more likely to win now. I can imagine that the only reason a lot of people held their nose and voted for Walker was to keep control of the Senate. Now that control of Congress is over, people can focus on who the crazy person is.
No, trust me, I am not political at all. They're all useless. I merely made a comment that I think mail-in voting is ripe for fraud in this day and age as it seems to have become quite popular. What brought out a bit of my wrath was that pussy @UsualName chiming in with some stupid bs. He's one of two people here I have occasionally put on full-ignore, although in his case I removed him from that honor a few months ago.
I could care less about mail-in voting or even voting via the phone/internet... as long as there is a way to validate with 100% precision one's identity. Seems like a pretty reasonable position don't you think? Notice I didn't go off on Freddy, tony, or even Gopher... it's just that little whining pussy and everything he stands for in life. Christ he's afraid to cross a road for god-sake.