Election - Market Reaction

[hofficita]

Quote from dlgilbert4:

Unfortunately, in science there is no such thing as "most highly evolved". Each species is more highly evolved than every other species in doing what that species does best - such is the basic consequence of evolution. Humans are the most highly evolved tool-makers just as tunas are the most highly evolved medium-distance-high-speed swimmers just as pigeons are the most highly evolved urban-dwelling-feathered species. Every species has its niche. As a species, humans are fairly unskilled across the board: we can't see, smell, or hear, our young are embarrassingly helpless for an extraordinary amount of time, we're slow, have horrible balance, etc. It just happens that our niche (tool-making, which leads to resource utilization and physical presence like buildings and cities, and language, which leads to social structure) is extremely visible.

Well written post. I will qualify. The human brain is the most highly evolved, which has allowed us a dominant position over other species. This was the point.

I take it, then, that you disagree with all forms of birth control that interfere with a fertilized egg's chance of resulting in pregnancy? Although birth control pills and IUDs primarily work to prevent conception (by preventing ovulation and by immobilizing sperm, respectively), the effectiveness of both methods is enhanced by the fact that they make the uterine lining inhospitable to a fertilized egg, "aborting" anything that does happen to get fertilized.

If it aborts a zygote, the law should be against it. The law should be logical and consistent. Either an individual human has freedom to live or they do not. If it is illegal for a parent to kill a 1 day old human, it should be illegal for them to kill the child 1 day before birth, or 100 days before or 270 days before. That being said, I am not entirely against the idea of giving parents the right to terminate their offspring at any point in time. After all, it is their genetic material involved.

I'm a woman. I'm straight. I'm on the pill, which I take every morning. My boyfriend and I don't use condoms. If I get pregnant, the first and only thing I'm doing is heading to Planned Parenthood and getting that parasite out of my system. I have the right to decide whether or not I'm going to have a child. You, unfortunately, do not.

I think you write very intelligently, but this last part makes you sound like a heartless bitch who will make a terrible mother someday. Whether abortion is legal or not, why would anyone relish the opportunity to end the life of their offspring?

 

[dlgilbert4]

Quote from hofficita:
Whether abortion is legal or not, why would anyone relish the opportunity to end the life of their offspring?

If I knew that I would not be able to provide an adequate life for that offspring, if I knew that I would not be able to provide that offspring with a residence of sufficient size, with financial resources to provide the best education, with even my presence more than a few hours a day, I would gladly take advantage of that opportunity to prevent that offspring from coming into being, before it is sentient, before it is anything more than a thumb-sized bundle of cells, even if only to increase the chance I'll be able to provide future offspring what I consider to be an adequate life.

Why do we not judge people for not having pets? Millions of cats and dogs die every year in shelters - these are sentient, thinking beings who feel pain - yet no one screams at every pet-less person that they are morally obligated to run to the nearest shelter and save a life. It is acceptable for someone to say "I'm not home enough" or "I'm allergic" or even "I don't like animals". I feel that it should be acceptable for a pregnant woman to say "I don't have the money" or "I'm not ready to give up my career" or even "I don't want children".

The only way for a woman to be completely sure that she will never get pregnant is to never have sex. Even tubal ligations fail. So the woman is faced with a choice: risk getting pregnant or forgo pleasure? The man has none of the risk.

Honestly, if I didn't live in an area where abortions were legal, the choice to have sex would be very, very hard. I'd hate to give it up, but I'd rather not ever have sex than be forced to have a child when I wasn't ready. A child needs to be a choice, not an obligation. I think that you agree with me that children who are not "choices", those born to teenagers and drug users and to families whose religion prevents them from having a choice, often end up with inadequate lives, lacking in parental presence and one-on-one time, material goods, and education opportunities.

Having the choice to have a child is important. Even including marriage, it is probably the biggest decision one makes in his or her entire life. It is my hope that women will always have the chance to make that decision, instead of having governments make it for them.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from mrchuffster:

Any ideas on how the markets will react if a) Obama wins or b) McCain wins?

Like to know your thoughts, Thanks.

My "indicators" say down.

But admittedly they do lag a bit.

 

[dlgilbert4]

Quote from hofficita:
I think you write very intelligently, but this last part makes you sound like a heartless bitch who will make a terrible mother someday.

Thank you for the complement about the writing. I think we both understand that neither of us expects to change the other side's opinion, but it is a worthy discussion just to gain some understanding of why the other side feels the way they do.

I wrote that line because I was feeling defensive, and I was feeling defensive because the thought of being forced to have a child is utterly terrifying to me. Having a child is pretty much the last thing in the world that I would want to happen to me right now - nine months of untold physical changes, the incomparable pain of childbirth, followed by at least 18 years of complete responsibility. It's very, very scary, and that's why I feel so strongly about it.

 

[BlindLemonBoosh]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

How do you figure. Just like today. I'm sure it's just a coincidence. Yea right.

McCain made a low in late June/early July at 29 and ES bounced for weeks as McCain rallied. As McCain rolled over hard off his 53ish high into the abyss the market got smoked.

Also the Intrade data was contaminated by a rogue McCain buyer. I was using Iowa data as well.

Lastly do a search. I was correlating Intrade to the market on ET as far back as early 2004. Well before most of ET even knew Intrade existed.....

Hulbert's analysis remains stronger. Anything else to add to the pot?

 

[nyxtrader]

Quote from dlgilbert4:

Thank you for the complement about the writing. I think we both understand that neither of us expects to change the other side's opinion, but it is a worthy discussion just to gain some understanding of why the other side feels the way they do.

I wrote that line because I was feeling defensive, and I was feeling defensive because the thought of being forced to have a child is utterly terrifying to me. Having a child is pretty much the last thing in the world that I would want to happen to me right now - nine months of untold physical changes, the incomparable pain of childbirth, followed by at least 18 years of complete responsibility. It's very, very scary, and that's why I feel so strongly about it.

Such a touchy topic. If I woman is raped or incest, there is a damn good argument. But as you stated above, that if you had consensual sex with your boyfriend and got prego, you would have an abortion. Selfish fuckin' bitch is what you are, no doubt. If you don't want to get prego don't have sex...that FUCKING SIMPLE. "I want to play like an adult but when the adult responsibilities creep up on you, you don't want to step up to the plate" MAKES ME FUCKIN' sick.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from BlindLemonBoosh:

Hulbert's analysis remains stronger. Anything else to add to the pot?

Bullshit. Stronger how? He fails to go back MONTHS. The summer rallied had virtual 100% correlation to McCains bounce.

The market rally into election day had NOTHING TO DO with Obama but EVERYTHING to do with 60 D-Sen as an over under. Obama's victory has been a foregone conclusion since the bailout vote/first debate.

 

[BlindLemonBoosh]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Bullshit. Stronger how? He fails to go back MONTHS. The summer rallied had virtual 100% correlation to McCains bounce.

"To find out, I plugged the two years' of Intrade data into my PC's statistical software, along with daily returns of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index , a benchmark that represents the combined value of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S. I found no statistically significant relationship between the two data series." - Mark Hulbert

2 years = 24 months. Anything else I can help you with?

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from BlindLemonBoosh:

"To find out, I plugged the two years' of Intrade data into my PC's statistical software, along with daily returns of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index , a benchmark that represents the combined value of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S. I found no statistically significant relationship between the two data series." - Mark Hulbert

2 years = 24 months. Anything else I can help you with?

Then where's the chart?

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=409933

You tell me where since May after Obama became the de facto nominee that you don't see pronounced Obama strength-market weakness or vica versa.

 

[mrstocker]

Quote from nyxtrader:

Such a touchy topic. If I woman is raped or incest, there is a damn good argument. But as you stated above, that if you had consensual sex with your boyfriend and got prego, you would have an abortion. Selfish fuckin' bitch is what you are, no doubt. If you don't want to get prego don't have sex...that FUCKING SIMPLE. "I want to play like an adult but when the adult responsibilities creep up on you, you don't want to step up to the plate" MAKES ME FUCKIN' sick.

I am curious, what do you feel the "boyfriend" is should to do if he makes someone pregnant?