Election is over: LONG OIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote from hels02:

Ok, I'll tell you what I REALLY think of oil. This is my own opinion and it makes no difference because I'm all long and can't spend any more money, even if I wanted to.

Every time I see a sector or stock pump on some kind of national news, I think... pump and dump. For the next few weeks, sometimes month, it will go up, rally rally rally. Then, the dumping begins suddenly overnight, so people can get their stops trashed thru or don't catch it.

So when I see ARTICLES saying: BUY THIS, I start looking for an exit position, or I run out and buy a covering put, locking in gains either way (while I too have some stops, I don't trust in stops for more reasons than I can get into here).

If I buy under those conditions, I buy with a married put (which still means you lose $1-$3 of upside, so it really depends how close to the top you were).

I'm VERY bullish on this market. I and only 1 other person were a week ago here, where the other person was getting slammed day in and day out for being bullish.

What I'm not bullish on is what mass media is bullish on... because I never trust their motives.

This goes back to my lesson learned on MCI. As it was in free fall, Maria Bartiroma interviewed this fund manager, who said she was buying MCI, because it was so cheap, and everyone knows that MCI was too big to fall. I held that stock down til it went to $.05 a share from $45. Did that fund actually BUY MCI? No, they were pumping and dumping.

By the time any article or 'advisor' comes out with info, THEY have bought. They want you to buy, so they can get OUT at an even better price. Not immediately, but soon. If it keeps going up, all the better for them... but THEY are wishy washy, thus the pump.

My MCI lesson has served me now for the better part of 7 years, and I make more and more money because of it.

So what do I see in the news? BUY OIL! Hrm.
More...

You're at a loss. The rest of us are getting $$$. There are more powerful forces at work here, for example supply and demand. Am I pumping and dumping? Please... I could not even move a microcap stock if I wanted too, let alone a trillion dollar market.
 
Quote from hels02:


So what do I see in the news? BUY OIL! Hrm.
More...


Why would anyone in his right mind pass up free money?!! :confused:

The same manipulators who drove oil prices down will drive the price higher. next stop $100.00

This years winter will be mild like last year, yet Nat gas rocketed up today. It's time to ride the gravy wagon! :D
 
bsmeter,

I am a purely technical trader. I posted a chart a few posts earlier on why I think it is time to go long oil. The oil service holder stock is a nice way to take advantage of the movement of oil.
 
I'm not accusing anyone here of pumping and dumping.

I guess it's just the knowledge that by the time something shows up in the news... a lot of people already knew about it, so it's priced in. All this bullishness in the news lately is making me nervous too. I liked it better when everyone was bearish... hehe.
 
Quote from hels02:

Ok, I'll tell you what I REALLY think of oil. This is my own opinion and it makes no difference because I'm all long and can't spend any more money, even if I wanted to.

Every time I see a sector or stock pump on some kind of national news, I think... pump and dump. For the next few weeks, sometimes month, it will go up, rally rally rally. Then, the dumping begins suddenly overnight, so people can get their stops trashed thru or don't catch it.

So when I see ARTICLES saying: BUY THIS, I start looking for an exit position, or I run out and buy a covering put, locking in gains either way (while I too have some stops, I don't trust in stops for more reasons than I can get into here).

If I buy under those conditions, I buy with a married put (which still means you lose $1-$3 of upside, so it really depends how close to the top you were).

I'm VERY bullish on this market. I and only 1 other person were a week ago here, where the other person was getting slammed day in and day out for being bullish.

What I'm not bullish on is what mass media is bullish on... because I never trust their motives.

This goes back to my lesson learned on MCI. As it was in free fall, Maria Bartiroma interviewed this fund manager, who said she was buying MCI, because it was so cheap, and everyone knows that MCI was too big to fall. I held that stock down til it went to $.05 a share from $45. Did that fund actually BUY MCI? No, they were pumping and dumping.

By the time any article or 'advisor' comes out with info, THEY have bought. They want you to buy, so they can get OUT at an even better price. Not immediately, but soon. If it keeps going up, all the better for them... but THEY are wishy washy, thus the pump.

My MCI lesson has served me now for the better part of 7 years, and I make more and more money because of it.

So what do I see in the news? BUY OIL! Hrm.
More...

I think we need to take a variety of factors into account and look at the big picture. The chart that was posted here showing the 50/200 week average of the Oil Holders Index. Its right now up against the 50 week average line meaning it could go two ways, bounce off of it and go lower or pierce through it and go higher.

OPEC wants oil over 60 per barrel and now the government will be in gridlock. Certainly there will not be any new drilling in the arctic regions and drilling offshore might soon be a pipe dream. Consumers seem comfortable with the gas between 2-3 per gallon.

I dont believe anyone in government really cares too much to do anything about the prices. Bush doesnt care, the Democrats dont care. I dont see them rushing about overly concerned on the issue.

I think there is a better chance of oil going higher then lower. However, I would wait until it pierces through the 50 week line for that particular etf. It could bounce and come back down quickly.
 
The upside to a mild winter is that consumer driving habits will adjust also. Warmer weather alows the consumer to drive around like it is the summer. Nat gas is more of a weather play than oil. If the Dem's increase the minimum wage we will have inflation concerns which will also play into higher oil. Just an opinion.

Akuma
 
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