Election 2024 Foreplay

Well considering she is garnering 20+ percent of the most likely republican voters it is impossible to get around she has to be on the list.

Now I’m not the biggest knower of Nikki Haley inside information but I somehow doubt she is going to want to go down the Mike Pence road on one hand but on the other hand if there is a Republican who would execute a coup de gras it would be Haley.

So in a strange way what makes her the least likely to accept also makes her the most likely in some ways.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789266329305805243
 
UsualName said:
Well considering she is garnering 20+ percent of the most likely republican voters it is impossible to get around she has to be on the list.

Now I’m not the biggest knower of Nikki Haley inside information but I somehow doubt she is going to want to go down the Mike Pence road on one hand but on the other hand if there is a Republican who would execute a coup de gras it would be Haley.

So in a strange way what makes her the least likely to accept also makes her the most likely in some ways.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789266329305805243
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No way Jose' with Haley. Not a road Trump will go down.

Trump is sort of a big boy when it comes to making amends with former rivals after primaries are over, type of thing.

But if someone turns on him after he/she worked for him- as Haley did- then you cannot put that genie back in the bottle. Loyalty is number one for Trump. Number one.

He stated today or maybe I am just seeing it today that Haley was not being considered but he wishes her well. You can probably rightfully argue that "sure, he says that now but he could easily say something else" because that is how politicians roll. Fine, maybe.

But I don't think that is what is going on. I think he wants to pick someone else like Burgham or Rubio (hello trump tower my new residency for a few months) and he does not want to see expectations built around Haley and read about how much support she has every day. That makes his final pick anti-climactic and he is - once again- left with a pantload of disgruntled Haley supports who need to be turned around before the election.

I will take "NOT" for a hundred, Alex.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
No way Jose' with Haley. Not a road Trump will go down.

Trump is sort of a big boy when it comes to making amends with former rivals after primaries are over, type of thing.

But if someone turns on him after he/she worked for him- as Haley did- then you cannot put that genie back in the bottle. Loyalty is number one for Trump. Number one.

He stated today or maybe I am just seeing it today that Haley was not being considered but he wishes her well. You can probably rightfully argue that "sure, he says that now but he could easily say something else" because that is how politicians roll. Fine, maybe.

But I don't think that is what is going on. I think he wants to pick someone else like Burgham or Rubio (hello trump tower my new residency for a few months) and he does not want to see expectations built around Haley and read about how much support she has every day. That makes his final pick anti-climactic and he is - once again- left with a pantload of disgruntled Haley supports who need to be turned around before the election.

I will take "NOT" for a hundred, Alex.
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Their relationship isn’t as rocky as some would believe but quite frankly where there is a chasm is in the moral and ethical realm. It’s impossible to quarantine the vice president from the goings on and despite what y’all may believe Trump is dirty as pig shit. He can’t have someone in his circle that will pull the trigger on him and Haley is the most likely to do so.

Now does that mean she would be out of consideration? Not necessarily because unlike DeSantis et al Trump understands the point of being in a race is to win the race. Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.

So I am not as convinced she is off the list. It would really depend on their inside analysis of why Haley is consistently grabbing large chunks of likely Republican voters. If they conclude the are Haley voters who are unlikely to vote Trump or even would vote Biden then they have no choice but to pursue it. If they see those voters as undecided and likely to support the Republican nominee, even if it is Trump, then she gets kicked to the curb.

The question is what is the propensity of those voters come November.
 
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UsualName said:
Their relationship isn’t as rocky as some would believe but quite frankly where there is a chasm is in the moral and ethical realm. It’s impossible to quarantine the vice president from the goings on and despite what y’all may believe Trump is dirty as pig shit. He can’t have someone in his circle that will pull the trigger on him and Haley is the most likely to do so.

Now does that mean she would be out of consideration? Not necessarily because unlike DeSantis et al Trump understands the point of being in a race is to win the race. Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.

So I am not as convinced she is off the list. It would really depend on their inside analysis of why Haley is consistently grabbing large chunks of likely Republican voters. If they conclude the are Haley voters who are unlikely to vote Trump or even would vote Biden then they have no choice but to pursue it. If they see those voters as undecided and likely to support the Republican nominee, even if it is Trump, then she gets kicked to the curb.

The question is what is the propensity of those voters come November.
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Yeh, but I still don't see it. Although regular viewers know that any views I have in this race or superseded by an expectation that there will be Rumsfeldian developments along the way so I expect to see some things I do not see. So there is that.

Just to buttress my previous point about Trump's loyalty concerns about Haley, I will point out that she has not even endorsed him and is out there screwing around with talk about whether she will even endorse the party's nominee. Pretty late in this cycle to be screwing around with that. If she wanted to put those loyalty fears to rest she could have done a complete, full, and immediate endorsement of Trump right after Trump won the primary. Not saying that would have worked but she is still out there dicking around at this late date. Mr. Trump has a way of having opinions on that that are not overcome by polls or campaign staff on who should be his VP choice.

Nikki also has her own reasons, no doubt. If she is thinking of a clean shot at 2028 then she probably does not want the baggage that will be on the table from another Trump administration. Not saying that is my thought, but I can see where that is consideration for her. If the public allegedly loves her, she may want to save that for herself and her own plans.

I will take "NO TO HALEY" for two hundred Alex.

I think his choices are down to Burgum, DeSantis, and Rubio - in that order.
I think Haley, J.D. Vance, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, and Tim Scott are out. As I discussed before, Melania wants Elise so Elise's stock is raised a bit above its value but not enough in my view.

As a wildcard, I think he would take a strong look at Kim Reynolds if she ever had an interest. I know she supported Haley and I know Trump has been pissed at her over that but if she endorsed him and wanted to lean toward him, he would listen. Probably she is not interested. And again, Trump does not like people whom he has previously selected and worked for him and that turn on him as Haley did. Reynolds just squared off with him as part of campaign talk.
Note that I said that she would be a wildcard, not that she is under any scrutiny.
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
Yeh, but I still don't see it. Although regular viewers know that any views I have in this race or superseded by an expectation that there will be Rumsfeldian developments along the way so I expect to see some things I do not see. So there is that.

Just to buttress my previous point about Trump's loyalty concerns about Haley, I will point out that she has not even endorsed him and is out there screwing around with talk about whether she will even endorse the party's nominee. Pretty late in this cycle to be screwing around with that. If she wanted to put those loyalty fears to rest she could have done a complete, full, and immediate endorsement of Trump right after Trump won the primary. Not saying that would have worked but she is still out there dicking around at this late date. Mr. Trump has a way of having opinions on that that are not overcome by polls or campaign staff on who should be his VP choice.

Nikki also has her own reasons, no doubt. If she is thinking of a clean shot at 2028 then she probably does not want the baggage that will be on the table from another Trump administration. Not saying that is my thought, but I can see where that is consideration for her. If the public allegedly loves her, she may want to save that for herself and her own plans.

I will take "NO TO HALEY" for two hundred Alex.

I think his choices are down to Burgum, DeSantis, and Rubio - in that order.
I think Haley, J.D. Vance, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, and Tim Scott are out. As I discussed before, Melania wants Elise so Elise's stock is raised a bit above its value but not enough in my view.

As a wildcard, I think he would take a strong look at Kim Reynolds if she ever had an interest. I know she supported Haley and I know Trump has been pissed at her over that but if she endorsed him and wanted to lean toward him, he would listen. Probably she is not interested. And again, Trump does not like people whom he has previously selected and worked for him and that turn on him as Haley did. Reynolds just squared off with him as part of campaign talk.
Note that I said that she would be a wildcard, not that she is under any scrutiny.
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We can get into Trump’s VP pick. I don’t think it will be Haley, or at least she is not desired by anyone in Trump-world. My point on her is that she has to be on the list if she can deliver those likely voters she is getting in the primaries.

Unless I don’t know something, I think Tim Scott has to be at the top of the list because the VP consideration still comes down to what you can deliver in terms of electoral votes.

Trump is making a hard play for black voters. And it’s not that black voters will come to Trump because there is a black person on the ticket either. That’s the shallow identity politics theory right wingers spew because they get lost in the complications of messaging. It’s because Scott represents some old school sensibilities held by a smaller cohort of black voters. He can go to churches and events and make the case in those places. And while he won’t grab a great many voters, he can get some and in a close election those votes can count.

Burgum doesn’t seem to deliver anything. He has an interesting face. Kind of cut out of stone but that’s about it with him. Boring, imo.

DeSantis would be a strong pick from an execution standpoint. He can carry the ball and complete political tasks. He would be probably the most effective VP of the bunch. If I was a conservative, he would be my choice for VP. He would make the ticket stronger in terms of running up the base.

Rubio I don’t get. Florida is in the bag. I don’t see where he moves the dial elsewhere. Maybe some Hispanic voters might get excited for a first time Hispanic VP but I really don’t see the Hispanic numbers as too movable. If anything he may actually hurt with Hispanics in the southwest and his Cuban privilege of being able to come to America without documents. This is a very touchy subject.

Stefanie is too weak imo in almost all areas. She doesn’t deliver anythin I’m aware and she is unrelatable, for lack of a real word. She’s just a doof and will look subservient under Trump, which may actually rile women against Trump.

It’s a shame Giuliani is shot out. He would have been a great VP in his prime. But yea more women have to get considered. Someone has to address the Roe v Wade stuff. Quick get your binders.
 
UsualName said:
We can get into Trump’s VP pick. I don’t think it will be Haley, or at least she is not desired by anyone in Trump-world. My point on her is that she has to be on the list if she can deliver those likely voters she is getting in the primaries.

Unless I don’t know something, I think Tim Scott has to be at the top of the list because the VP consideration still comes down to what you can deliver in terms of electoral votes.
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In regard to your comment about Haley needing to be on the list, I have addressed that. Your point is valid in that she could deliver some of her voters but there are other controlling factors in Trump's mind and Nikki's mind that override that. So that is where I stand at this time. Things might be different if you or I decided but that is for El Trump and I don't see it for the reasons set forth. That does not make me right. Just saying I don't see it. You do and that is fine.

I also think that you see Haley as a VP pick as a quick and easy and riskless way of picking up a block of votes. But it is not risk-free. Haley is not MAGA and there are very vocal segments both in the ranks down on main street and high up and close to Trump who have made it very clear that they did not come this far with Trump to see someone loved by the democrats chosen as VP. That minefield is very real and something that Trump would have to navigate.


In regard to Tim Scott- ditto- he could deliver black votes- but that alone is not sufficient in Trump's mind. Maybe it should be but it isn't. Right this week Tim Scott is also having rather public disagreements with Trump on abortion and Trump is not going to like that. Trump is double and tripling down on his position that all abortion decisions are with the states now per Dobbs - but Tim is standing with his primary campaign position to wit "the President has a moral obligation to help enact a national abortion ban." The media is having a bit of fun highlighting that difference. I don't think Trump likes that and I don't think Trump likes the "Tim is too nice of a guy" routine. Trump may like Tim's obsequiousness toward him but he does not respect it for the VP position. Maybe there is room to differ on whether he is out as I said but it is bit to cocky to say as you did that he "must be at the top." No he doesn't. There are issues that would at least place him further down in the pack at this time. Maybe he can work his way up again. Go for it. I place him further down the totem pole this week. When the facts change, I might change my mind.

Trump also cannot be happy with Tim repeatedly telling the media- in response to their forever questions about Jan 6- that "VP Pence did the right thing." Where VP and staff and cabinet members stand on whether the 2020 election was rigged is a YUGE litmus test for Trump. And Tim sides with Pence.
 
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UsualName said:
and Biden’s economy is working pretty well.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1789631170767990864
 
UsualName said:
You’re going to have to wait a little while for him to cut your head off now.
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You'll be waiting a lot longer for that great economy,Bidens great State of The Union speech, or Republicans torpedoing Bidens border bill to improve Bidens poll numbers.
 
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