Election 2024 Foreplay

[UsualName]

I do not admonish polling idiot.Because of polling having Biden ahead in April 2020 and approval rating polling had Trump with the worst 1st term approval ratings ever I knew Biden would win 2020.Wagering on the other hand had Trump as the favorite.

Biden won by about 40k votes in 3 states that swung the election. If you were sure Biden would win going into 2020 then you got lucky to be on the right side of that guess.

I am someone who *tends* to believe the polls and right now it’s probably in Trump’s favor with Biden having the momentum. Expect that to ebb and flow.

Despite what you guess, 2024 will most likely be even closer than 2020 and will most likely be anyone’s to win or lose.

As to Biden being a bottom 5 president, you’re completely wrong. Biden will have a net positive legacy. He has a lot of accomplishments and has re-established America’s role as leader of the free world. Domestically, the infrastructure bill gets a lot of headlines but the CHIPS Act will actually be the bill that advances America to the next level.

 

[Tony Stark]

As to Biden being a bottom 5 president, you’re completely wrong. Biden will have a net positive legacy. He has a lot of accomplishments and has re-established America’s role as leader of the free world. Domestically, the infrastructure bill gets a lot of headlines but the CHIPS Act will actually be the bill that advances America to the next level.

If he loses re election he's already amongst the bottom and net negative as thats where most one term by re election loss presidents are rated.Great Presidents aren't fired by The American people after one term.His foreign policy results in Afghanistan,Ukraine and Gaza will be seen as major disasters,among the worst in US history.

America’s role as leader of the free world? Yeah,he lead the disasters in Afghanistan,Ukraine and The Middle East.


Biden has the worst first term approval ratings ever.Good or great presidents don't have the worst approval ratings ever.


No President is highly rated over something like The Chips Act and only a massive infrastructure accomplishment like Eisenhower's gets great president credit,Bidens infrastructure bill is not even close to the magnitude of Eisenhower's.

Losing to someone as despicable as Trump will also be a huge hit against his legacy.Trump is currently rated bottom 5,so what does that make Biden when he loses to Trump

 

[Tony Stark]

Biden won by about 40k votes in 3 states that swung the election. If you were sure Biden would win going into 2020 then you got lucky to be on the right side of that guess.

It was close but the odds by approval ratings was 100% and head to head polling 80% so it wasn't a guess imo.It was close because of how much farther and farther The EC keeps moving to Republicans advantage.Winning the popular vote by 7 million but The EC by only 40,000 would have been unthinkable in the past.Winning the popular vote by 7 million likely wouldn't be enough for Biden this election.

 

[Tony Stark]

I am someone who *tends* to believe the polls and right now it’s probably in Trump’s favor with Biden having the momentum. Expect that to ebb and flow.

Biden got a slight won the nomination momentum boost but it is fading.Biden was ahead in 4 of 5 polls after securing the nomination but Trump is back being ahead in 4 of the last 5 with the other a tie.

And that is only polls that exclude pissed off progressives who will be voting 3rd party.We know from 2000 and 2016 that progressive 3rd party candidates should not be ignored.All it takes is between 1% (Stein 2016 ) and 2.7% (Nader 2000) to sink The democrat nominee.

BIDEN HAS NEVER HAD THE OVERALL LEAD WHEN 3RD PARTY CANDIDATES WERE INCLUDED,EVER!!!!

In aggregate polling with 3rd party candidates included Biden has the lead in 4 polls,Trump has lead in 30!!!!

And thats national/popular vote polling where Biden will likely need to win by more than 7 million votes.In EC polling Biden is getting slaughtered.In many swing state polls Biden has not lead in a single RCP poll.


AZ
Biden isn't ahead in a single poll

NV
Biden isn't ahead in a single poll

MI
Biden isn't ahead in a single poll

Since the southern strategy realignment no democrat has won the presidency without MI

NV
Biden isn't ahead in a single poll

GA
Biden isn't ahead in a single poll

PA
Trump ahead in 80% of the polls

WI

The one swing state where it looks like Biden might have a chance but still getting trounced and Biden only has the lead in 1 poll since October.

 

[UsualName]

If he loses re election he's already amongst the bottom and net negative as thats where most one term by re election loss presidents are rated.Great Presidents aren't fired by The American people after one term.His foreign policy results in Afghanistan,Ukraine and Gaza will be seen as major disasters,among the worst in US history.

America’s role as leader of the free world? Yeah,he lead the disasters in Afghanistan,Ukraine and The Middle East.


Biden has the worst first term approval ratings ever.Good or great presidents don't have the worst approval ratings ever.


No President is highly rated over something like The Chips Act and only a massive infrastructure accomplishment like Eisenhower's gets great president credit,Bidens infrastructure bill is not even close to the magnitude of Eisenhower's.

Losing to someone as despicable as Trump will also be a huge hit against his legacy.Trump is currently rated bottom 5,so what does that make Biden when he loses to Trump

I could address all of this but I think it would be more pertinent to touch on the free world leadership point because you seem to think leading the free world means controlling the world. It doesn’t.

Try to understand that we live in a world where democracy is not the historical norm. Generally speaking nations are historically ruled by tyrants, dictators, military cabals, and other various forms of rule, as opposed to being led by governments chosen by the people.

I guess we have to go back two generations of Americans who truly understood this now. It seems this lost among the newer generations. If we are not expanding democracy throughout the world then democracy is waning. We are actually down from the highest number of democratically governed countries. With more and more expanding threats to democracy.

As leader of the free world, we promote democracy and oppose dictatorships. NATO opposes dictatorships. Meaning we do not bend to dictators. We do not cede to dictatorships. We oppose threats to democratic countries. We support democratic countries defending themselves.

We do not support terrorists. Not Hamas, not Hezbollah. None of it.

All of it is a threat to democracy. The less democracies in the world the less safe we are in America.

This is what you Hamas lovers don’t understand. Hamas will cut your head off and put your grandmother in a burka. And they ain’t trying to vote on it.

And for the Russia lovers. It’s no different. You want freedom of speech, you’ll be sent to Siberia. You oppose the dictator, you’ll be thrown out of a window.

So yeah, not bending to Putin, Hamas and not having tea with Al Qaeda in camp David is definitely an improvement.

 

[Tony Stark]

Biden won by about 40k votes in 3 states that swung the election. If you were sure Biden would win going into 2020 then you got lucky to be on the right side of that guess.

You make an interesting point here.Its hard for the democrat nominee to win/predict a win for the democrat even when the democrat is dominating in the polls as Biden did in 2020,had a 7 million popular vote advantage,had an approval rating around 90% with blacks,high support from progressives, no 3rd party threat and a republican opponent with the worst 1st term approval ratings ever. The EC is so skewed for the republican that even with all those advantages the democrat only won by 40,000 votes.

If the democrat can only win by 40k with all those advantages what are their chances when the democrat is losing in 2 candidate national polling, being destroyed in national polling when 3rd party candidates are included ,out right slaughtered in EC/State polling,an approval rating with Blacks in the 40's,most progressives hate the democrat nominees fucking guts,multiple 3rd party threats, its the democrat with the worst approval ratings ever and there is no chance in hell that they will win the popular vote by 7 million,and polls suggest the democrat wont even win the popular at all

 

[Tony Stark]

This is what you Hamas lovers don’t understand. Hamas will cut your head off and put your grandmother in a burka. And they ain’t trying to vote on it.

Yall need to stop equating hating Netanyahu,Israels right wing government and genocide with loving Hamas

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I could address all of this but I think it would be more pertinent to touch on the free world leadership point because you seem to think leading the free world means controlling the world. It doesn’t.

Try to understand that we live in a world where democracy is not the historical norm. Generally speaking nations are historically ruled by tyrants, dictators, military cabals, and other various forms of rule, as opposed to being led by governments chosen by the people.

I guess we have to go back two generations of Americans who truly understood this now. It seems this lost among the newer generations. If we are not expanding democracy throughout the world then democracy is waning. We are actually down from the highest number of democratically governed countries. With more and more expanding threats to democracy.

As leader of the free world, we promote democracy and oppose dictatorships. NATO opposes dictatorships. Meaning we do not bend to dictators. We do not cede to dictatorships. We oppose threats to democratic countries. We support democratic countries defending themselves.

We do not support terrorists. Not Hamas, not Hezbollah. None of it.

All of it is a threat to democracy. The less democracies in the world the less safe we are in America.

This is what you Hamas lovers don’t understand. Hamas will cut your head off and put your grandmother in a burka. And they ain’t trying to vote on it.

And for the Russia lovers. It’s no different. You want freedom of speech, you’ll be sent to Siberia. You oppose the dictator, you’ll be thrown out of a window.

So yeah, not bending to Putin, Hamas and not having tea with Al Qaeda in camp David is definitely an improvement.

Jewish people might disagree with your glowing recitation of some things.

They are just thankful that dems have not yet loaded them into the cattle cars. I am pretty sure that if Columbia or Harvard proposed that they be forced to wear the Star of David they would be down with that.

 

[UsualName]

You make an interesting point here.Its hard for the democrat nominee to win/predict a win for the democrat even when the democrat is dominating in the polls as Biden did in 2020,had a 7 million popular vote advantage,had an approval rating around 90% with blacks,high support from progressives, no 3rd party threat and a republican opponent with the worst 1st term approval ratings ever. The EC is so skewed for the republican that even with all those advantages the democrat only won by 40,000 votes.

If the democrat can only win by 40k with all those advantages what are their chances when the democrat is losing in 2 candidate national polling, being destroyed in national polling when 3rd party candidates are included ,out right slaughtered in EC/State polling,an approval rating with Blacks in the 40's,most progressives hate the democrat nominees fucking guts,multiple 3rd party threats, its the democrat with the worst approval ratings ever and there is no chance in hell that they will win the popular vote by 7 million,and polls suggest the democrat wont even win the popular at all

You’re assuming a constant polling bias for the democrats. And that may be true or it may be not true. Many pollsters have changed their polling methodologies these past two cycles due to the polling bias you cite.

 

[Tony Stark]

You’re assuming a constant polling bias for the democrats. And that may be true or it may be not true. Many pollsters have changed their polling methodologies these past two cycles due to the polling bias you cite.

RCP aggregate polling has been right about the popular vote 100% of time since it started in 2004.There has been polling methodology changes during that time and it keeps working itself out and being correct about the popular vote winner.I think it will continue to be correct even with changes as it has been in past.