Election 2024 Foreplay

Atlantic said:
4 MORE YEARS !

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If I’m Biden and the democrats I’m looking at that Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina and thinking bank rolling his dem opponent might be a back door to 270.

And, yes, I’m going to get kicked around for that but but but the last North Carolina senate race was super close and this republican nominee is very weak. Could be the unicorn where the bottom of the ticket lifts the top of the ticket.
 
smallfil said:
A lot of big investors are fleeing New York now, Blackrock included. Kevin O' Leary of Shark Tank fame lambasted the prosecutor Leticia James for what they (she and the judge) did to President Donald Trump. No crime was committed, no one lost any monies. They better come to their senses. President Donald Trump did not harass any US businesses. Actually, he reduced tax rates to encourage businesses abroad to repatriate their huge profits thereby, collecting taxes from them. Joe Biden will continue to demonize businesses and scapegoat them as responsible for the huge inflation he himself created.
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I love the way they have shifted the narrative to "The border is all the Pubs fault"... I mean it's comical. All I have to do is talk to my left leaning friends, and the brainwashing mechanisms of the MSM come thru loud and clear. I've said it before... MSNBC's pulpit makes anything Goebells ever did look amateurish.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Although Haley is not really a moderate Republican, she is a sane one. The GOP is going on a road trip:

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Id rather Trump than Haley. I get that sounds nuts but Haley is the personification of the devil wears Prada. She would rip up the domestic social safety net and would not bumble through the legislative process.

Trump is a nut and would cause major social division but he is also a dunce who couldn’t even manage the rule making process, nevermind ushering through legislation.

I will take the dummy over the star student any day.
 
UsualName said:
Id rather Trump than Haley. I get that sounds nuts but Haley is the personification of the devil wears Prada. She would rip up the domestic social safety net and would not bumble through the legislative process.

Trump is a nut and would cause major social division but he is also a dunce who couldn’t even manage the rule making process, nevermind ushering through legislation.

I will take the dummy over the star student any day.
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Interesting, thoughtful perspective. I'm not sure I agree, but your rationale gives me pause. Regardless, it helps Biden that he will be running against Trump.
 
UsualName said:
Biden’s approval has been sinking since Afghanistan withdrawal. Trump didn’t overtake the general election polling lead until April of 2023. The Hamas attack on Israel happened happened in October, 7 months after Trump took the polling lead.

I’m not saying Israel isn’t an important issue, it just isn’t THE issue.

I also don’t agree that police reform is pushing the polling either. Black voters tend to be more conservative than white democrats/progressives. Many people miss this fact because they see civil rights issues as liberal. By and large black voters rejected the defund the police nonsense. And quite frankly it was white progressives that sunk police reform with that.

Now this gets a little complicated from here, or at least it does for me. The polling is showing Biden is losing some support among black and Hispanic voters nationally. But democrats have historically overperformed nationally and underperformed electoral college. That’s the win the national vote and lose the electoral college phenomenon. So Biden is losing some support in areas where democrats already overperform.

With the realignment Biden actually competes more efficiently within the electoral college. Grabbing more college educated voters, white suburban voters and +65 voters brings Biden into areas democrats have traditionally lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I tend to believe the polling and more and more immigration is becoming the top issue but in truth for democrat voters it tends to be migration. There’s a big difference there.

It’s also important to remember Trump outright lost his bid for reelection and Obama lost considerable support in his reelection. So the modern electorate seems to make incumbency a little taxing lately too.

There’s a lot to consider but I don’t buy the Israel and police reform arguments because they are not showing up in the polls.
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With respect I think you got it all wrong. You acknowledge that his numbers have been sinking since Afghanistan so why treat his approval as some step function instead of a transient with the other issues I mention? Have you seen how inflation is polling lately? It's going away like it never happened.

Take police reform for instance. I know the media drove this point home that police reform=defund the police and that minority poors don't want the cops gone from their neighborhoods. To make that claim and then say it was white libs that soured the idea for blacks/browns is just patronizing AF for minorities. Never mind I've yet to see decent polling on its effect, but the implication here is that blacks/browns can't parse language and take things literal so they must understand it as "cops won't be around" rather than "they ought to change ROE" or "we need lees punitive measures for petty offenses" which were in effect what the marches were all about.

You'll excuse me then if I don't get this notion that disapproval can't be cumulative and that disaffected voters giving up on an issue somehow means they forgot or don't care about it. I didn't even see abortion on the evening news top 5 anymore, do you think women forgot?

So you get all that disaffection, fail to shape the immigrant narrative by action or words and let the GOP dump it on these foreign scapegoats. Never mind your own economists telling you they're responsible for having pushed this economy to a large degree. You think Hispanics won't see it when the admin is pushing policy where there's no light of day between it and Trump's?

In a way your views remind me a lot of the dems in DC. They're very ivory tower and northeast centric and ignore a lot of what the voter base wants....see Gaza turning into a shitfest because "they knew best" for latest.

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UsualName said:
Biden’s approval has been sinking since Afghanistan withdrawal. Trump didn’t overtake the general election polling lead until April of 2023. The Hamas attack on Israel happened happened in October, 7 months after Trump took the polling lead.

I’m not saying Israel isn’t an important issue, it just isn’t THE issue.

I also don’t agree that police reform is pushing the polling either. Black voters tend to be more conservative than white democrats/progressives. Many people miss this fact because they see civil rights issues as liberal. By and large black voters rejected the defund the police nonsense. And quite frankly it was white progressives that sunk police reform with that.

Now this gets a little complicated from here, or at least it does for me. The polling is showing Biden is losing some support among black and Hispanic voters nationally. But democrats have historically overperformed nationally and underperformed electoral college. That’s the win the national vote and lose the electoral college phenomenon. So Biden is losing some support in areas where democrats already overperform.

With the realignment Biden actually competes more efficiently within the electoral college. Grabbing more college educated voters, white suburban voters and +65 voters brings Biden into areas democrats have traditionally lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

I tend to believe the polling and more and more immigration is becoming the top issue but in truth for democrat voters it tends to be migration. There’s a big difference there.

It’s also important to remember Trump outright lost his bid for reelection and Obama lost considerable support in his reelection. So the modern electorate seems to make incumbency a little taxing lately too.

There’s a lot to consider but I don’t buy the Israel and police reform arguments because they are not showing up in the polls.
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What cinched it for Trump was when he visited E Palestine and Biden didn't. You can look right to that date for the reversal of the polling data. Trump has great instincts and The Big Macs didn't hurt anything either.
 
Cuddles said:
With respect I think you got it all wrong. You acknowledge that his numbers have been sinking since Afghanistan so why treat his approval as some step function instead of a transient with the other issues I mention? Have you seen how inflation is polling lately? It's going away like it never happened.

Take police reform for instance. I know the media drove this point home that police reform=defund the police and that minority poors don't want the cops gone from their neighborhoods. To make that claim and then say it was white libs that soured the idea for blacks/browns is just patronizing AF for minorities. Never mind I've yet to see decent polling on its effect, but the implication here is that blacks/browns can't parse language and take things literal so they must understand it as "cops won't be around" rather than "they ought to change ROE" or "we need lees punitive measures for petty offenses" which were in effect what the marches were all about.

You'll excuse me then if I don't get this notion that disapproval can't be cumulative and that disaffected voters giving up on an issue somehow means they forgot or don't care about it. I didn't even see abortion on the evening news top 5 anymore, do you think women forgot?

So you get all that disaffection, fail to shape the immigrant narrative by action or words and let the GOP dump it on these foreign scapegoats. Never mind your own economists telling you they're responsible for having pushed this economy to a large degree. You think Hispanics won't see it when the admin is pushing policy where there's no light of day between it and Trump's?

In a way your views remind me a lot of the dems in DC. They're very ivory tower and northeast centric and ignore a lot of what the voter base wants....see Gaza turning into a shitfest because "they knew best" for latest.

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I don’t disagree that disapproval can be cumulative. As a matter of fact I started a thread called Biden’s approval takes a nosedive where I wrote about how issues can become baked in. And, absolutely, what your voter base wants needs to be addressed. What I am saying is that some of these issues are not the prevailing issues of this election and elections are won between the 40 yard lines.

Right now immigration is the issue between the 40 yard lines. And yes Biden needs to grab ahold of the migration issue or it will become baked in.

We can agree to disagree. I’m ok with that.
 
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