Election 2024 Foreplay

UsualName said:
Not much of a protest vote in SC. Biden garners 95% of the vote. Not much evidence that democrats actually want an alternative to Biden here…

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...esults-south-carolina-democratic-primary.html
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Half the voters who voted for Biden in 2020 did not vote for him in 2024.

Black voters way of protesting is staying home.



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Buy1Sell2 said:
It's over.
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It is.

All those polls that showed Bidens approval with Blacks has dropped around 50% proved to be true last night.

2024 will have the lowest black turnout ever and Trump will have the highest share of black voters for a republican ever.I'm guessing around 20%
 
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UsualName said:
I was struggling to find a relevant comparison but that’s not a bad point there. I was mainly looking to see if a protest vote showed up but couldn’t really figure out a good comparable metric for turnout. It is important to note enthusiasm is down on the republican side this cycle too.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-carolina-democratic-primary-turnout-2024-joe-biden/

Around 131,000 South Carolinians voted in the 2024 Democratic primary, making up just around 4% of registered voters statewide. The showing marks the lowest turnout in the last few presidential primaries for Democrats, though those contests were notably more competitive.

Turnout for this year's Democratic primary fell well below previous contests. In 2020, 540,000 people — around 16% of voters —participated in the Democratic primary, while in 2016, 373,063 — more than 12% — did the same. In 2012, former President Barack Obama ran unopposed in the primary, but in 2008, 532,151 turned out, accounting for around 23% of registered voters, according to the South Carolina Election Commission.

I haven't seen exit polling yet but here's previous yrs:

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TreeFrogTrader said:
Depends on what the defintion of "here" is.

Every poll in the country has consistently shown that voters/dems either don't want Biden to run or want a choice.

Keep in mind what I have said before, which is that Biden will experience a dead cat bounce in some numbers as dems give up on the idea that there is an alternative or any hope for one and beging to rally around the idea that a dem needs to be elected. Which is exactly what is happening. Big mistake though to do what you are doing which is to conclude that there is "not much evidence that democrats want an alternative to Biden. BIG MISTAKE. They are flaccid as can be about Biden.

If the DNC had run a for-real primary where you had serious contenders such as Newsom or Whitmer or the like, you would see lots on non-biden votes, to put it mildly. Everyone has flattened out now. They wanted a choice, not a chance to come out and vote for some fringe unknowns.

But yeh, the Massah owns South Carolina. That's why they started there. And the whole dem primary is flat as a pancake in every state coming up. Nothing to watch. Be careful though if anyone puts up a third party. You want to watch that plenty because some of those who have given up on Biden could vote there and throw it into the house. Not that I have not pointed that out before, but don't get cocky. There is no love for Biden. He is just a utilitity grade candidate when someone wants to vote for a dem rather than a pub. Cardboard cut-out Joe.
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Blah blah blah. Parties don’t run traditional primaries when they have an incumbent president seeking reelection. You make it as though the democrats are doing something radical by coalescing around the incumbent. They’re not.

Yes, Biden has problems in the general. We get it. Most incumbents lose support seeking reelection too. See Obama 2012, Trump 2020. Biden’s challenges currently are bleaker than both. So what? Biden doesn’t have to be perfect to beat Trump, whom actually has significant downside issues of his own.

You keep telling me what’s going to happen. Back in the day Warren was going to be the nominee according to you, then Biden won’t be the nominee this go around, etc. You got to at least get some of this stuff right once in a while. Broken clocks have more wins than you.

The third party thing is a real thing. You and @Tony Stark are going to claim it’s a thing for different reasons but the truth is if it’s about anything it’s about money, ie where RFKjr is getting his money from and why would they fund him. Can it happen? Sure. It’s going to take a lot more than you and Tony realize but yea it’s a real possibility.
 
UsualName said:
Blah blah blah. Parties don’t run traditional primaries when they have an incumbent president seeking reelection.
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You are the one who who needs to hear that - not me.

You getting all excited over Biden's "win" and pointing out that that it means that there is not much protest out there in regard to him. Smarten up for crisesake. He is the only one the dem machine allowed to run. Technically they could but they become personna non grata in the beltway if they did. The couple fringies don't care.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
You are the one who who needs to hear that - not me.

You getting all excited over Biden's "win" and pointing out that that it means that there is not much protest out there in regard to him. Smarten up for crisesake. He is the only one the dem machine allowed to run. Technically they could but they become personna non grata in the beltway if they did. The couple fringies don't care.
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glass houses and all that; oh, you were a hypocrite that supported the move when done for your cult leader:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-party-of-trump.335730/#post-4922020

TreeFrogTrader said:
They make that sound like it's a bad thing.
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