Election 2024 Foreplay

UsualName said:
Nah the abortion thing is baked, Nikki Haley won’t help. That motivation just exists on the left.

Trump knows he has to run up the score, not try to convert infidels. His best choice, imo, Tim Scott.
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I like Tim Scott a lot. But as soon as Trump picks him, here comes the "Trump only did it for... blah blah blah reasons" and of course, which we have already seen here: "He's just an Uncle Tom"... which in its own right is racist af imo.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
I am guilty of some horsing around with the Tulsi topic and have never remotely put her up as a viable candidate or vp.

Having said that, she has her value and in many ways is the opposite of Bootyboy. She is a dem-gone-antiBiden cannon rolling around on the deck of the ship. The crossovers, whether in the form of Bobby Kennedy, Dean Phillips, etc. are enormously valuable to have floating around in the political environment. Buttigieg, on the other hand, has always been and always be just one more dem hack who has not deviated from script one iota.

And yes, Trump has to find a way to get votes beyond his maga base. That has always been so and is not in dispute. What is in dispute is who and how that can done. Sind Trump will not lose his base he does have a chance to soften some things and reach out to suburban women etc. There is an art to that though. You cannot bring in someone such as Haley who is considered to be the moral and political equvalent of Mitt Romney. I mean you can, and maybe Trump will go off the reservation and do so, but it comes with a cost. You want to feel solidarity in your campaign and party the day after you appoint your nominee. Not have the beginning of infighting and republicans dissing the nominee.

The other thing is that has to be noted - Usual Tard with his slideshow probably is a better source- but one of the problems Biden has is that he is already losing more suburban women and the like, and minorities and the like. So Trump does not want to mess up anything that may be working too. Refer back to my comments about Maslows need hiercharchy. ie. these women are down on a lower rung now and are now looking for someone to preserve safety and security. Bottomline is that it comes down to how Trump handles the abortion issue. He has picked up a lot of suburban women on the safety and security concerns but they are still watching him like a hawk on the abortion issue. He can help himself bigtime there or hurt himself. His campaign not mine.

Trump wants to preserve some kind of relationship with Melania, however distant it may be. Don't underestimate her role in picking a VP.
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Is there likely to be another SCOTUS appointment between 2024 and 2028? Because if so, you can bet that will be a big card for the Dems to play in their "Fear Trump" campaign.
 
UsualName said:
Nah the abortion thing is baked, Nikki Haley won’t help. That motivation just exists on the left.

Trump knows he has to run up the score, not try to convert infidels. His best choice, imo, Tim Scott.
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incel Scott gettin' sum; allegedly

 
vanzandt said:
I like Tim Scott a lot. But as soon as Trump picks him, here comes the "Trump only did it for... blah blah blah reasons" and of course, which we have already seen here: "He's just an Uncle Tom"... which in its own right is racist af imo.
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Well the right did it to Kamala so the left will do it to Tim.... fair game even though Kamala was clearly not qualified.
 
vanzandt said:
Is there likely to be another SCOTUS appointment between 2024 and 2028? Because if so, you can bet that will be a big card for the Dems to play in their "Fear Trump" campaign.
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Realistically, all the feverish supreme court watching by dems over the years has been related to abortion, abortion, and abortion. The court appointee fears will not go away but as a practical matter the abortion issue is now - per the Dobbs decision- now in the hands of legislatures and the president. So the lefties have to deal with that five alarm fire right in their face with an election coming up. They need to do well with that right off. So that will sap some of the concern about supreme court appointments because that is not where the abortion action is right now.

You have properly pointed out that Trump's maga base is immovable so he can take some hits and they have no other place to go. Yup, and when you see his final position on abortion you will see why he let Iowa blow over before going laying it out - to not alienate the evangelicals.

Nikki's biggest fear and THE DNC'S biggest fear is that Trump will just flat out come out and advocate a three month (or whatever it is) limit on abortion's and then argue "this is what the American people have said they support even though it does not please everyone, and we are not going to be criminalizing women." Basically the epicenter of Haley's position on abortion.

Just looking at the politics of it- without my agreeing or disagreeing with that position- if Trump does that, it is a nightmare for Haley and the DNC. The DNC's strategy to win next November is at least 70% based on getting Trump to commit to some draconian (in their mind) positions on abortion and then ripping him apart day after day about it. If Trump goes with a three-month limitation though his ads are going to asking "why are democrats so afraid of aligning themselves with the will of the people."

That is sort of a roundabout response to the supreme court appointment issue. Yeh, it will always be an issue at some level, but the issue is now in the hands of legislators rather than justices so that is where the dnc will work it, ie "you need to worry more about who you elect and how they will collude with Trump rather than who may get appointed to the court down the road.
 
vanzandt said:
I like Tim Scott a lot. But as soon as Trump picks him, here comes the "Trump only did it for... blah blah blah reasons" and of course, which we have already seen here: "He's just an Uncle Tom"... which in its own right is racist af imo.
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Im happy to let you righties bark up all of the wrong trees but sometimes we can squeeze a little actual policy and strategy here too.

Having democrats attack Scott on race terms in regards to being some kind of a sell out would be a benefit to the Trump campaign. We are most likely running into a very close election. Trump beat Hillary by 60k votes in 5 states, Biden bested Trump by 40k votes in 5 states. This turn could be 20k between Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Those margins are so tight that grabbing 5k here and 5k there would make a total difference.

Trying to combat the abortion thing will not work. Trump needs to shut the hell up and start pointing the finger at the court and saying they told Congress they would accept precedent and that’s it. Take no responsibility and let the evangelicals have their pound of flesh. And run away.
 
Mercor said:
Trump criticizes Republicans pushing abortion bans with no exceptions: 'You're not going to win'
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Here we go, right on schedule, as discussed two posts above.

The DNC'S and Haley's worst nightmare.

Trump will not pick Haley as VP but he will dismember her and take the policy parts he wants.
 
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Mercor said:
Trump knows how to read a room
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That plus he has a real campaign staff this time around that he apparently is able to or wants to listen to. All the dems over on CNN complain about him running a better campaign this time around, and they are not happy about.

To your point, if Trump ever has a seminar on how to read a room, Ron Desantis should sign up. :cool:
 
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