Election 2024 Foreplay

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Biden getting ready to speak on the hostage thing and his campaign and the lefty media are already spinning away to show him as a leader in the hostage/Israel/Gaza scenario.

COMPLETE BULLSHIT.

His years of giving Iran absolutely everything they ever dreamed of -and he still does it even in the midst of all this- is the root cause of everything.

In addition- his projected and actual weakness- put down the welcome mat for Russia, Radical Islam/Hamas, and China to make their moves. Absolutely and totally discussed during his campaign. It will and has happened right on schedule in Ukraine and Israel and China is in the queue. And Biden is the facilitator.

As Nikki Haley asked - regardless of whether she is MAGA or RINO- "Why does Joe Biden feel that every time he finds a dollar he has to give it Iran?" He has performed every possible, conceivable unnatural act upon Iran and the hostage situation is just one of many downstream consequences. I saw an ABC video clip puff piece and it was disgusting the way they were coordinating with the DNC and the Biden campaign by humping for Biden.

DISGUSTING.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
And of course, in addition to the points made in the article below, there is the prevailing thinking that they will have to run the table with Joe Biden leading up the ticket. Not a projection that I subscribe to, but there is a basis for it. Viewers can decide for themselves whether that is a plus or a minus for the down-ballot candidates.

And if there are dems thinking that having someone other than Joe at the top of the ballot would be a rising tide lifting all the boats below, then I say unto you: Watch your arse. You could do worse. Newsom is not proven east of Sacramento, and Kamala heading up the ticket would be an Olympic-level turd in the punchbowl.

Having said that, the Pubs have little or no plan for getting out the vote so there is that- along with the fact that Trump has more baggage than Sea-Tac Airport - so there is that. Although even though Trump presents risks of unfavorability or bad behavior with some, I don't think it can argued that the pubs are therefore equally at risk as the dems. The dems have far more seats open and at risk and the pub ones that are open are in red states that most likely have already come to grips with Trump and also do not have a lot of down-ballot dems that might cause them to pick a straight dem ticket.

Dems, you are fucked. Stop making bad decisions about this Biden thing and about domestic and foreign issues. Getting to be too late to turn it around.


Democrats forced to run the table on incumbents to keep narrow Senate majority

Without Manchin in the race, the party's task of keeping its 51-49 majority has become even harder. Republicans only have 10 incumbents up for reelection this cycle, while Democrats have 23. Three of those 23 are in red states, including Manchin's. The other two are Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

If either loses without Democrats picking up long-shot seats elsewhere on the map, Republicans will retake control of the upper chamber.

Tester opting to seek a fourth term in and of itself was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state former President Donald Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. But Senate GOP leadership is expected to pour significant resources into the contest.

Democrats forced to run the table on incumbents to keep narrow Senate majority (msn.com)
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The senate is lost this cycle but the House is leaning for Dem control. So net/net wash but would definitely rather have the Senate over the House.
 
UsualName said:
We get it and youre running the risk of becoming a broken record with spamming this stuff.

Now with that said in the past couple of months Biden has lost his GE polling advantage over Trump. What is obvious is that young voters have steered away from Biden in this time. What is it? Maybe student loan forgiveness disappointment and Israeli support - maybe something more.

Curious in all of this is Biden has flipped the script on the 65+ crowd and is actually in the black with this cohort. Could this be he is trusted with social security and medicare or that generally speaking boomers are rocking economically. Overturning Roe may also be a bridge too far. Again, I don’t know.

The economy is another interesting point because the vast majority of Americans polled say they are doing well but the overall economy isn’t. If it’s anxiety then that could subside. The real test here is if people are “cutting back” on the essentials of life though. Skipping lunch, behind on utility bills that sort of stuff.

There’s a lot going on inside of the polling right now. I wouldn’t call it sticky yet though.
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Just to button this up, people doing fairly well but anxious about the economy.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/american-dream-out-of-reach-poll-3b774892
 
UsualName said:
The senate is lost this cycle but the House is leaning for Dem control. So net/net wash but would definitely rather have the Senate over the House.
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Two landmine issues: One for the dems and one for the pubs are going to before the voters so candidates need to be careful to not do the stupid. I mean they can do what they want, but anything not thought out will be fatal.

If Pubs do the stupid and say that they support a national ban on abortions, it had better be well thought out in light of the wishes of their district. Gonna be hard to put that genie back in the bottle.

Ditto for the dems. If they do the stupid and just flop out some pro-hamas/pro Palestinian, "israel is bad" comments, it's going to take the Jaws of Life to extract those words and put them back in their mouths. Again, not sayin' they might not want to take that position, just that it is not an issue where you flop words out and then think you can re-adjust as you go along like your position on EV automobiles or something.

In other words a good part of the campaign is before the voters already.

I would need an abacus to keep track of the number of congressional reps - both dem and pub- announcing that they are not running again. Not sure if that favors one side over the other but it increases the number of moving parts.

And whatever the projections are now, they would have to be revised if Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket. Put Kamala at the top and that gonna hurt. Put someone better than Biden, well, that's a plus for dems. Not sure who that would be, even though the script says that everyone would love Newsom. Dem's don't know though. There is California, then there is the rest of the country. On the other hand, that hotly contested senate race in Calif will turn out the dems which will hurt the handful of republican congressional reps there. Not sayin it would be major but the dems might pick up a couple in Cali. I think they have 10 or 12 or 15 or something.
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
Two landmine issues: One for the dems and one for the pubs are going to before the voters so candidates need to be careful to not do the stupid. I mean they can do what they want, but anything not thought out will be fatal.

If Pubs do the stupid and say that they support a national ban on abortions, it had better be well thought out in light of the wishes of their district. Gonna be hard to put that genie back in the bottle.

Ditto for the dems. If they do the stupid and just flop out some pro-hamas/pro Palestinian, "israel is bad" comments, it's going to take the Jaws of Life to extract those words and put them back in their mouths. Again, not sayin' they might not want to take that position, just that it is not an issue where you flop words out and then think you can re-adjust as you go along like your position on EV automobiles or something.

In other words a good part of the campaign is before the voters already.

I would need an abacus to keep track of the number of congressional reps - both dem and pub- announcing that they are not running again. Not sure if that favors one side over the other but it increases the number of moving parts.

And whatever the projections are now, they would have to be revised if Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket. Put Kamala at the top and that gonna hurt. Put someone better than Biden, well, that's a plus for dems. Not sure who that would be, even though the script says that everyone would love Newsom. Dem's don't know though. There is California, then there is the rest of the country. On the other hand, that hotly contested senate race in Calif will turn out the dems which will hurt the handful of republican congressional reps there. Not sayin it would be major but the dems might pick up a couple in Cali. I think they have 10 or 12 or 15 or something.
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There is a lot to get through but some redistricting has shifted the natural leanings of the House make up to favor the democrats. Making it more inline with the actual makeup of the country. And believe it or not, people being fairly represented could go a long ways to settling the angst in the country.

As to foot in mouth syndrome of the congressional races it’s kind of par for the course but can certainly make a difference in the senate. I don’t know if the Israel stuff will infiltrate the Dems as much as the Roe stuff put republicans on their heels.
 
UsualName said:
What are we talking about here? As a percentage of gdp or raw dollar totals?
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Oh I dunno. How bout YOY Percentage increase of average cardholder balance?

C'mon man. Just take the larger point. The consumer economy is no longer living off of the great covid giveaway. Until the next one anyway.
 
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