Election 2024 Foreplay

TreeFrogTrader said:
It is a weird scenario. Generally when there is a low level of excitement it also involves a low level of interest and concern by voters.

But it is not like that now. There is a HIGH level of concern within both parties but also a HIGH level of resignation about the inevitability of the lead candidates.

But any sign of real blood in the water or real vulnerability would turn the whole thing into a vicious sharkfest.

I guess you were talking about the general election though. But I will similarly say that it could be a sleeper until it isn't. If neither candidate can get 270 because a third party has bled off some electoral votes (and the vote goes to the House) that WILL NOT be a sleeper.

Also Joe could go tits up at any time before or after the nomination which would also NOT BE sleeper. Joe is not going to make it through two full terms - even one is questionable. A vote for Joe is a vote for a constitutional crisis. But for those who think like dems rather than Americans, that's fine. They just want the D after the name of the President.
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I am speaking about the general but the enthusiasm is low in the primary too. On the very real but outside chance Biden should not be able to perform his duties there is a constitutional remedy in the VP. As I have always said when it comes to these things the vice president’s health is actually more important than the president’s. While you worry about Biden’s health the better worry is his frailty. Trump on the other hand his cardiovascular heath is an actual issue considering he has heart disease for which he needs medication. But if we are talking about thinking like an actual American this is exactly why we moved to have the President and VP on the same ballot - for continuity of government.

Now should Biden or Trump have a health issue on the campaign, yes, absolutely that will shake up the election. You often talk about unknown unknowns but that works both ways. Don’t think your leading candidate is in the green zone.
 
UsualName said:
I am speaking about the general but the enthusiasm is low in the primary too. On the very real but outside chance Biden should not be able to perform his duties there is a constitutional remedy in the VP. As I have always said when it comes to these things the vice president’s health is actually more important than the president’s. While you worry about Biden’s health the better worry is his frailty. Trump on the other hand his cardiovascular heath is an actual issue considering he has heart disease for which he needs medication. But if we are talking about thinking like an actual American this is exactly why we moved to have the President and VP on the same ballot - for continuity of government.

Now should Biden or Trump have a health issue on the campaign, yes, absolutely that will shake up the election. You often talk about unknown unknowns but that works both ways. Don’t think your leading candidate is in the green zone.
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Taking your last question first, I have ALWAYS included doubts about whether Trump will on the ticket for two or more reasons (health and/or legal or rather voter reaction to legal) as amongst the unknown/unknowns. And of course other reasons too, such as assassination and other things. The nature of unknowns is that they are ...well...unknown. We went into this race with the expectation that it would be a Trump and a Biden/Harris match. Anything that disrupts or alters one of those factors- anything that was not known at the time was/is an unknown unknown. Manchin third party, the war in Israel etc. were not even part of the discussion, with more to come. I don't like mentioning assassination but it is a fact that solemeni's men are still committed to taking Trump out and they have not given up. Nor will they.

In regard to other issues you raised, I very much agree, ironically that Biden's frailty is a bigger issue than his outright health- but that causes me to disagree somewhat with your assertion that there are constitutional remedies and a vice president and all of that to take care of a health crisis. Only in theory for outright scenarios. In reality his frailty could leave the the country without a functioning president (pretty much there already) yet the means of his removal via the 25th is fraught with unproven requirements and room for mischief. Principle officers removing the president and then to congress. Hello. All the principal executive officers have a vested interest in seeing the zombie continue to serve as a cardboard cutout. Or there could be a hub-bub in the opposite direction where certain factions argue that the other faction is trying to oust the president. Yeh, I will give you that there is a remedy on paper in the constitution- but still argue that there is a constitution crisis that comes with it.

But it is one that you are signing up for if Joe is elected again, so we will learn more about all that- the hard way.
 
Another hard hit for Ron.

And of course it is not just the dollars. Griffin was one of his chief cheerleaders early on but now it has become a "I moved to Florida because I liked the way he was running the state but now I can't figure out what the hell he is up to" kind of story.

Republican megadonor Ken Griffin "actively contemplating" supporting Nikki Haley

Driving the news: Griffin told Bloomberg News on Tuesday that he is "actively contemplating" supporting Haley.

  • "That's a decision that we're actively contemplating," he said during an interview with Bloomberg News at the Citadel Securities Global Macro Conference. "I mean, we are at the finish line on that choice. Yes or no."
The big picture: Griffin, the founder and CEO of hedge fund Citadel, indicated in September that he was souring on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who he previously had said that he planned to support.

  • "It's not clear to me what voter base he is intending to appeal to," Griffin said of the Florida governor.
  • Griffin gave $5 million in 2021 to a political action committee backing DeSantis' governor reelection bid, according to state campaign finance records.

Republican megadonor Ken Griffin "actively contemplating" supporting Nikki Haley (msn.com)
 
UsualName said:
It was the girlfriend that did him in. Too much press inquiry and wasn’t going to hold up and lead to more digging. He was running to build up PAC money anyway. Never really a contender for anything.
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Imagine this... Tim Scott's girlfriend paid escort turns out to be a con artist who perpetuates frauds.

Republican dropout Tim Scott's new girlfriend Mindy Noce and her ex-husband Peter were sued over $1.2million 'shell and sham' scheme involving their company Bravas Partners in 2017
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nd-Mindy-Noce-shell-sham-Bravas-Partners.html
 
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:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
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