Election 2024 Foreplay
- Thread starter TreeFrogTrader
- Start date
How many of those polls include Dr West? As Hillery and Gore learned The Green Party candidate needs to be factored in.
Only one state poll I know of has factored in Dr West so far
She was winning until Comey dropped a bomb on her and the popular vote didn’t guarantee Hillary a victory either.
what about 2020?
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
It’s hard to imagine a messier chapter than Trump 2.0.
The popular vote didn’t guarantee Hillary a victory but it predicted the popular winner as it has since 2008.Thats relevant because if The GOP candidate wins the popular vote they will definitely win The EC.
As I said,flip of a coin.
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Not so fast. History repeats itself until it doesn’t. Trump is a true populist candidate. He will run up votes from untraditional voters however this can come at a cost. These past midterms bucked the trend you cite and that trend seems to be holding.
Something more predicative than state and national polls. Never been wrong and unlike head to head polling it picks the overall winner rather than the popular vote winner.Its 11 out of 11 since this article was posted while Trump was President.
Can Trump break this six-decade U.S. election pattern?
The pattern: If the president’s approval rating is “above water,” meaning more approvers than disapprovers, he wins a second term. If the president has a negative approval rating, he loses.
How many of the laws of history can Donald Trump repeal?
I don’t claim to know. And history doesn’t really have “laws” that can be enforced, just precedents and patterns formed by the accumulation of those precedents.
One such pattern, which has held in every election that involved an incumbent president since the emergence of the political polling industry, is this: If the president’s approval rating is “above water,” meaning more approvers than disapprovers, he wins a second term. If the president has a negative approval rating, he loses.
This has been true in 10 out of 10 instances in the era of modern polling, dating back to the 1950s, the era that includes the last 16 presidential elections — including the 10 that involved an incumbent president. In every one of those 10, as I just mentioned, if the president had more approvers than disapprovers, he was re-elected. If more disapprovers than approvers, he was defeated.
Dems kept the Senate because of 3 Progressive acceptable Senate candidates(Warnock,Kelly,Fettermen),they lost the nationwide popular/House vote by millions.