Election 2024 Foreplay

[Tony Stark]

Trump just took the lead over Biden on RCP,which he already had long ago when factoring in the extra 4.5 points needs because of The EC

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And RCP isnt including Dr West,which gives Trump an even bigger lead in every poll he has been included in

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Trump stretching his lead:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702020727874970024

He keeps making it harder for me to be right about his lead eventually reverting to the mean by 20 points. I will give ya that.

Although I don't know. Over time arguably it makes it easier. It is so toppy and frothy now that to revert to 42 points might be easier than to drop from from 42 to 22. But yeh. I am in trouble on that. But the point i just made is not without merit. It's lot like trading the NASDQ. Easy to go up, and easy to go down by large amounts.

Pray for me.

 

[Tony Stark]

Thank you for your opinion, Mr Broken Record. The problem with your analysis is the millions and millions of progressives live in solid blue states. Elections are about swing states. Talk to me about how Biden and Trump match up in Pennsylvania and then you may have a point.

Trump Biden Sept 2019,Biden up 11.7

Biden Trump Sept 2023,Trump is in the lead

 

[Tony Stark]

Biden Trump Sept 2023,Trump is in the lead

And Biden has to overcome Trumps 4-5 point advantage in The EC AND the 4-5 points Dr West will get

 

[Tony Stark]

Biden will not beat Trump or any republican in 2024.The only reason Biden won in 2020 is because he promised most of the shit Sanders usually promises.

 

[UsualName]

He keeps making it harder for me to be right about his lead eventually reverting to the mean by 20 points. I will give ya that.

Although I don't know. Over time arguably it makes it easier. It is so toppy and frothy now that to revert to 42 points might be easier than to drop from from 42 to 22. But yeh. I am in trouble on that. But the point i just made is not without merit. It's lot like trading the NASDQ. Easy to go up, and easy to go down by large amounts.

Pray for me.

Look at what’s going on in Texas…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701656952533594342

 

[UsualName]

And Biden has to overcome Trumps 4-5 point advantage in The EC AND the 4-5 points Dr West will get

Not to be too contrarian but this past midterm election showed democrats may be able to win the general with less of the popular vote than before.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not to be too contrarian but this past midterm election showed democrats may be able to win the general with less of the popular vote than before.

Dems like Warnock,Kelly and Fetterman weren't hated like Biden is now.

 

[Tony Stark]

Look at what’s going on in Texas…

Biden does far worse there in 2024 than he did in 2020,as will be the case in in most states.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not to be too contrarian but this past midterm election showed democrats may be able to win the general with less of the popular vote than before.

Biden wont even win the popular vote in 2024.