Election 2024 Foreplay

UsualName said:
And whether you can see it or not Christie is the only candidate really trying to take support away from Trump.

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Where are apart is that you buy into Christie's mentality and strategy- ie. unless you are 100% committed to attacking trump 24/7 and make that your one and only strategy that you are not "really trying to take support away from Trump."

Nope. That's just you and Christie being two peas in a pod. Others, do not think that is a viable strategy but are 100% committed to taking support away from Trump. Vivek for example has doubled his support in the last three weeks but is 100% committed to taking as much of Trump's support as he can get. Your binary mind is your archilles heel as always. One can be 100% committed to taking Trump's support but not believe that being junkyard dog against Trump is the way to go. Those are not either/or positions.

And as far as Trump "not losing support" that too is not binary either/or. As I said yesterday he will lose some support, maybe down from 50 to 30 but still in the lead. But you cannot process that because your binary mind sees "losing some support" as "losing the lead." Nope, those also are not mutually incompatible. You lose support and still be in the lead and still win, but just be off of your high.

I see that Christie is leading in New Hampshire ahead of trump now according to some poll. Which I suppose you or others could argue that that counters my statements about Christie, if you overlook the fact that yesterday I specifically said that I can see Christie and a couple others having their 15 minutes of fame and in regard to Christie "particularly in the New Hampshire primary which is the only place that he has focused on." Nope, that too fits with what I said. But overall he is a dud. Trump is going to experience as I have said ten times, a 20 point mean reversion before this is over. But he may still be in the lead.

Although all analysis, yours included along with mine, is, my mind superceded, by some Rumsfeldian factor that make this something other than a Trump versus Biden race to the end. Could be on the pub side, could be on the dem side, could be on the independent side. Don't know. Could be from natural causes, could be from political causes, could be from an unknown unknown.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Where are apart is that you buy into Christie's mentality and strategy- ie. unless you are 100% committed to attacking trump 24/7 and make that your one and only strategy that you are not "really trying to take support away from Trump."

Nope. That's just you and Christie being two peas in a pod. Others, do not think that is a viable strategy but are 100% committed to taking support away from Trump. Vivek for example has doubled his support in the last three weeks but is 100% committed to taking as much of Trump's support as he can get. Your binary mind is your archilles heel as always. One can be 100% committed to taking Trump's support but not believe that being junkyard dog against Trump is the way to go. Those are not either/or positions.

And as far as Trump "not losing support" that too is not binary either/or. As I said yesterday he will lose some support, maybe down from 50 to 30 but still in the lead. But you cannot process that because your binary mind sees "losing some support" as "losing the lead." Nope, those also are not mutually incompatible. You lose support and still be in the lead and still win, but just be off of your high.

I see that Christie is leading in New Hampshire ahead of trump now according to some poll. Which I suppose you or others could argue that that counters my statements about Christie, if you overlook the fact that yesterday I specifically said that I can see Christie and a couple others having their 15 minutes of fame and in regard to Christie "particularly in the New Hampshire primary which is the only place that he has focused on." Nope, that too fits with what I said. But overall he is a dud. Trump is going to experience as I have said ten times, a 20 point mean reversion before this is over. But he may still be in the lead.

Although all analysis, yours included along with mine, is, my mind superceded, by some Rumsfeldian factor that make this something other than a Trump versus Biden race to the end. Could be on the pub side, could be on the dem side, could be on the independent side. Don't know. Could be from natural causes, could be from political causes, could be from an unknown unknown.
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Yeah, no. Ramaswamy hasn’t taken one point of support away from Trump, he peeled it off from DeSantis. The both of them are still playing in the minor leagues.

And yes I read you expect Trump’s support to revert back to the mean and I disagree and I stated my reason is the field is a bunch of sissy Marys and republicans don’t vote for chickens who are scared to fight.

You may think these guys have some brilliant strategy and can angle in but as I said I no longer believe that. There is no issue and no campaign that will take Trumps high support outside of some devastating criminal circumstances or straight up punching Trump in the nose. These sissies are hoping a meteor will land on Trump because they are scared of him.

You can believe whatever you like. All of this is opinion and subjective but it also has to make sense to some degree. And the sense I see is Trump is stronger now than he was in his first primary run and his opponents are weaker and only getting more and more wuss.
 
UsualName said:
Yeah, no. Ramaswamy hasn’t taken one point of support away from Trump, he peeled it off from DeSantis. The both of them are still playing in the minor leagues.

And yes I read you expect Trump’s support to revert back to the mean
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Again, as always, your binary thinking absolutely keeps you from reading or hearing any point that has gradation or nuance to it or is multifactorial in any way. I absolutely did not say that Trump would "revert back to the mean." I said that he would lose some support as a result of mean reversion but that that did not mean that he would not still be in the lead. Only that he would be off of his high. This view is in contrast to your statement that "I don’t think Trump is going to drop in support." I think he will lose some support, in other words be off of his current high. Maybe lose ten or twenty points which will still leave him in the lead. Wayyyyyyyyyy too nuanced for the binary mind.

In regard to Vivek not peeling off any support from Trump, that point has merit in one sense as one point but unfortunately for the binary mind there are lots of moving parts and just one point is an adequate understanding. You say that he is peeling off DeSantis votes. Yeh well, indeed. The DeSantis brand/position which is in decline is morphing over to another candidate whose brand is on the rise. Whether he can rise to be an ultimate threat to Trump remains to be seen but he certainly is capable of doing better than DeSantis and by doing better than DeSantis he certainly can bite into some of Trump's votes and some of the undecided or swingable votes that Trump needs beyond the core MAGA base. Now, the binary mind will want to make my point into whether Vivek can win or not. NOPE. The discussion was/is about whether Trump could lose any support (you said, I don’t think Trump is going to drop in support) and I am arguing that there are factors at play that could easily take him ten or twenty points lower even if he wins the nomination. Lower= loss of support somewhere. You known, you can argue that a stock is in play and will go lower without arguing that it is going to go to zero. But you, Mr. Binary, are saying "no". his support will never be lower than it is today.

It is a bit nuanced for you but the issue of "level of support/polling" and "lead" get used interchangeably in these discussions but they are not the same. Trump could maintain the same level of support but lose the size of his lead if other candidates consolidate around a second place. So he would lose the size of his lead without necessarily losing support.
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
Tulsi Gabbard’s Brilliant Idea To Help Biden: Maybe We Should Just Call Hawaii ‘Ukraine’

:rolleyes:


Tulsi Gabbard: Maybe we should just call Hawaii ‘Ukraine’ | Watch (msn.com)
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I though it was climate change

upload_2023-8-20_15-56-1.png
 
SHOTS FIRED!!!!!! Shelter in place.

Trump pulling the hammer back right as we speak.

I can see some excremental comments coming with the word "loser" used freely throughout.


GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race
The Louisiana Republican said he thinks the charges related to the former president’s mishandling of classified documents after he left office are “almost a slam dunk."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-trump-drop-2024-presidential-race-rcna100878
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
SHOTS FIRED!!!!!! Shelter in place.

Trump pulling the hammer back right as we speak.

I can see some excremental comments coming with the word "loser" used freely throughout.


GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race
The Louisiana Republican said he thinks the charges related to the former president’s mishandling of classified documents after he left office are “almost a slam dunk."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-trump-drop-2024-presidential-race-rcna100878
More...
That's why they call em Rinos!
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
SHOTS FIRED!!!!!! Shelter in place.

Trump pulling the hammer back right as we speak.

I can see some excremental comments coming with the word "loser" used freely throughout.


GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race
The Louisiana Republican said he thinks the charges related to the former president’s mishandling of classified documents after he left office are “almost a slam dunk."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-trump-drop-2024-presidential-race-rcna100878
More...
Pardon me while I yawn---
 
This is gonna be a great Thread. How far's the Election away, 15 months or something? Already up to 114 pages.

Hopefully Trump goes to Prison. That should eliminate a bit of Lying Propaganda shite, although I guess his dopey followers will still spray excrement.

Vote 1 @Overnight I say!
 
Candidate Joe Biden goes to devastated Maui to tell them about his fire in his kitchen decades ago and how he almost lost his cat and his Corvette.

As Joe repeatedly says when reporters ask him if he is up to the job: "Just watch me."

We are watching Joe.
 
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