Election 2024 Foreplay

TreeFrogTrader said:
As I said back at the Alvin Bragg situation, "Trump's numbers are subject to a 20 point mean reversion at some point." I stand by that. That does not mean that he will not still be in the lead but the froth is going to come off those numbers at some point. Then when you are only ten or fifteen ahead it starts to matter whether others are entering or dropping out of consolidating five or ten points here and there. Then you have an election contest in process.
More...

Meh, all of Trump’s opponents will be rallying to his side once again today, raising his support even higher.
 
UsualName said:
Meh, all of Trump’s opponents will be rallying to his side once again today, raising his support even higher.
More...

Oh, I am not questioning that he will get another bounce and do bouncy, bouncy some more.

Nor did I say that he will lose the lead in the near or medium term. Just that he has 20 or more frothy points that will come out sometime over the coming months at some point.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Oh, I am not questioning that he will get another bounce and do bouncy, bouncy some more.

Nor did I say that he will lose the lead in the near or medium term. Just that he has 20 or more frothy points that will come out sometime over the coming months at some point.
More...

O get what you’re saying. Trump truly controls about a third of the Republican base, they won’t vote any other way. However, I just don’t see where that other 20% is going to peel off to. I know they script has turned to Ramaswamy but I don’t believe it is real. He is too goofy to hold strong support. If anything, Trump’s soft support will settle with DeSantis, imo. And I know DeSantis is down and out but he ain’t no goof troop like Ramaswamy.
 
UsualName said:
O get what you’re saying. Trump truly controls about a third of the Republican base, they won’t vote any other way. However, I just don’t see where that other 20% is going to peel off to. I know they script has turned to Ramaswamy but I don’t believe it is real. He is too goofy to hold strong support. If anything, Trump’s soft support will settle with DeSantis, imo. And I know DeSantis is down and out but he ain’t no goof troop like Ramaswamy.
More...

I don't necessarily disagree with all of that and do not have much verve for micro- analyzing some of it base on known factors since it is well established that I have a Rumsfeldian view that something unknown will supercede the known factors that are getting shuffled and reshuffled around. If, for example, Glen Youngkin entered in November there goes 30 points for Trump right there. Just an example. If Manchin enteres at some point, possibly that would drive Trumps numbers up even more because he would be third party and leave the remaining base party even more MAGA. Don't know. Trump's health, assassination attempts by the Iranians to get retribution for Solemani/sp etc. Are risk factors. Don't know but the unknown unknowns loom large.
 
Joe Biden to visit the island you see on TV all the time on Monday. Hopefully he does not refer to it as Gilligan's Island when he is there.

"And, during his speech in Milwaukee, the president appeared to forget the name Maui, referring to the island as 'the one where you see on television all the time.'

Looks like his plan to go to Lake Tahoe for the weekend before going to Hawaii is still on. Good, Joe needs a little rest. I don't know why but apparently he does.

FINALLY! White House announces President and First Lady Jill will visit Hawaii on Monday as Karine Jean-Pierre defends his inaction on Maui wildfire

FINALLY! White House announces President and First Lady Jill will visit Hawaii on Monday as Karine Jean-Pierre defends his inaction on Maui wildfire | Daily Mail Online
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top