Election 2024 Foreplay

UsualName said:
Im thinking team Biden sees the writing on the wall is a rematch of 2020. Might as well get going unlike Rod DudSantis.
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That could be but in my view I think the timing has more to do with the dems.

I mean let's be realistic, Gavin Newsom has foreplay invested in the 2024 election. His recent tour of red and other states under the guise of "helping to win over voters for the dem party" was a warm-up for the campaign. I can very easily see him giving Joe a timetable. Maybe they are diplomatic about it and tell Joe that they will not announce until he does but, e.g., after June 1 I need to put out more feelers- type of thing. In other words, the press starts giving Newsom the DeSantis treatment whereby he is not even announced by they include him in every poll with Trump. The media has mostly spared Joe that but the last thing Joe needs is to some poll on an unannounced Gavin Newsom that shows him way up there against Joe. You can say that some are already showing that data but they also have not pumped up Newsom. It's the two together that gets you up there. So Joe has to fend off that type of thing amongst the dems, and not just worry about getting going against Trump. Realistically. Joe aint ever going to get going, just like last time. But his handlers need to know what he is up to in order to devise a strategy to deal with that.

I know you don't need to hear this, but Robert Kennedy Jr. is not going to win, but certain idiots here will interpret what I am about to say as that, and I cannot stop that. But.....lots of dems do not Joe. So the only avenue many dems will have to express their not-wanting Joe is to specify some other person when they are polled. The duds such as Marianne Williamson and Kennedy will pick up some points there. And, again, and it should not be necessary to say it again, they are not going to win, but it will be VERY depressing for dems to see the protest votes against Joe and the generally flaccid feelings about the Dem nominee to be.

As I have said before when joining into discussions about the pubs and trump and desantis and all of the problems their, "I nevertheless would not trade all those problems for what the dems have ahead." It is not too late for the pubs to pick a functional candidate. Trump is up there but it is not a done deal, in my mind, and acknowledging that most disagree. Whereas once Joe announces. Jeesuzz. The dems have signed up for the biggest frigging mess to come down the pike in post WW2 history. Having Joe announce is like entering a lobster trap. There is no easy way out.
 
Larry Elder has announced.

Again, he will not be the nominee, but- along with Vivek- is plenty able to contribute to the narrative and cross-examination of other candidates.

So, an Asian-American woman, two blacks (Larry and Tim Scott coming), and an Asia-American man (vivek) and some white guys on the republican horizon or actively participating.

Oh, I see, Joe Biden is the face of the party that "looks like America." Lemme tell ya, if Joe is what America looks like, we be fucked.

Larry is a happy warrior too. He will know when to get out after he has had his say. Unlike grumpy warriors Bernie and Warren and all those vitriolic types who spew acid until the end.
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
That could be but in my view I think the timing has more to do with the dems.

I mean let's be realistic, Gavin Newsom has foreplay invested in the 2024 election. His recent tour of red and other states under the guise of "helping to win over voters for the dem party" was a warm-up for the campaign. I can very easily see him giving Joe a timetable. Maybe they are diplomatic about it and tell Joe that they will not announce until he does but, e.g., after June 1 I need to put out more feelers- type of thing. In other words, the press starts giving Newsom the DeSantis treatment whereby he is not even announced by they include him in every poll with Trump. The media has mostly spared Joe that but the last thing Joe needs is to some poll on an unannounced Gavin Newsom that shows him way up there against Joe. You can say that some are already showing that data but they also have not pumped up Newsom. It's the two together that gets you up there. So Joe has to fend off that type of thing amongst the dems, and not just worry about getting going against Trump. Realistically. Joe aint ever going to get going, just like last time. But his handlers need to know what he is up to in order to devise a strategy to deal with that.

I know you don't need to hear this, but Robert Kennedy Jr. is not going to win, but certain idiots here will interpret what I am about to say as that, and I cannot stop that. But.....lots of dems do not Joe. So the only avenue many dems will have to express their not-wanting Joe is to specify some other person when they are polled. The duds such as Marianne Williamson and Kennedy will pick up some points there. And, again, and it should not be necessary to say it again, they are not going to win, but it will be VERY depressing for dems to see the protest votes against Joe and the generally flaccid feelings about the Dem nominee to be.

As I have said before when joining into discussions about the pubs and trump and desantis and all of the problems their, "I nevertheless would not trade all those problems for what the dems have ahead." It is not too late for the pubs to pick a functional candidate. Trump is up there but it is not a done deal, in my mind, and acknowledging that most disagree. Whereas once Joe announces. Jeesuzz. The dems have signed up for the biggest frigging mess to come down the pike in post WW2 history. Having Joe announce is like entering a lobster trap. There is no easy way out.
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Conventional wisdom says the incumbent president has a huge advantage and when there is not an incumbent president running the electorate tends to swing to the other party. I don’t disagree that there is a real argument to be made that Biden’s age is a major factor that disrupts the incumbent advantage. (You may recall in the last election I was saying Trump trying to pin a crime family message on Biden was a big miss when his weakness is his age.)

Democrats by and large are democrats. Meaning they want to see a democrat running the executive branch and while the odds may be lower with Biden as the incumbent their odds are higher running an incumbent. And that’s where it is, imo. Start lining up the surrogates to attack Trump and it’s off and running.
 
UsualName said:
Conventional wisdom says the incumbent president has a huge advantage and when there is not an incumbent president running the electorate tends to swing to the other party. I don’t disagree that there is a real argument to be made that Biden’s age is a major factor that disrupts the incumbent advantage. (You may recall in the last election I was saying Trump trying to pin a crime family message on Biden was a big miss when his weakness is his age.)

Democrats by and large are democrats. Meaning they want to see a democrat running the executive branch and while the odds may be lower with Biden as the incumbent their odds are higher running an incumbent. And that’s where it is, imo. Start lining up the surrogates to attack Trump and it’s off and running.
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There are a lot of moving parts this cycle- more than usual.

One is that both Trump AND Biden have criminal issues and investigations swirling around them.

The other is the "two-tier" analysis that voters have to do with Biden. What I am getting at is that they have to evaluate Biden and then they have to evaluate Kamala moreso than ever. If Biden were just dysfunctional and people were thinking "okay but if he steps down or something we see a highly capable VP there so we see where it would go." But they can't say that.

Of course the thing about American politics is that the pundits can pund their arses off but if the price of gas doubles before the election all bets are off. True for any president left or right.

One of the interesting little developments going on is that I have seen clips of CNN and MSNBC joining in a bit on trashing Biden for the swampy stuff. Not sure yet whether that will go away now that he is announced or whether the powers that be will use that as vehicle to expresss their "disapproval" hoping to thwart his plan a bit- or more than a bit.

We shall see.
 
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UsualName said:
Trump’s policy ideas sound like people’s drunk uncle at the end of a family party… and that is precisely why he will win the Republican nomination again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649424292470292481
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Don't go dissing drunken uncles.

My drunken uncle bounced quite a few shots off the side of a Russian trawler that was dragging inside the 3-mile limit and cut his trap lines.

The Ruskies complained to the Coast Guard and they boarded my uncle's lobster boat. The uncle explained that "he was just shooting at seals trying to get into traps" and all was well. No doubt he gave the Coasties a few lobsters "as a good will gesture."

Yeh, drunken uncles. Where the truth gets set free.

Joe is lucky. He does not need to drink to be a drunken uncle.

:cool:
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
Don't go dissing drunken uncles.

My drunken uncle bounced quite a few shots off the side of a Russian trawler that was dragging inside the 3-mile limit and cut his trap lines.

The Ruskies complained to the Coast Guard and they boarded my uncle's lobster boat. The uncle explained that "he was just shooting at seals trying to get into traps" and all was well. No doubt he gave the Coasties a few lobsters "as a good will gesture."

Yeh, drunken uncles. Where the truth gets set free.

Joe is lucky. He does not need to drink to be a drunken uncle.

:cool:
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Ohh I’m not dissing on drunk uncles, quite the opposite. There’s zero chance Trump will get his policy agenda but the Republican base absolutely loves it. A giant wall Mexico will pay for!
 
oh, dude conveniently leaves out candidate in 3rd place (of those announced) only to go back t and edit his article

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/20...-out-whos-still-thinking-about-it-2023-04-19/

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Here is a list of declared candidates and other potential 2024 hopefuls in both the Democratic and Republican parties.

JOE BIDEN
Biden, 80...

DONALD TRUMP
Trump, 76, ....

RON DESANTIS
The Florida governor, ...

NIKKI HALEY
A former governor ....


TIM SCOTT
The only Black Republican U.S. senator....

ASA HUTCHINSON
The former Arkansas governor...

MIKE PENCE
Trump's vice president ....

CHRIS CHRISTIE
The pugnacious former New Jersey governor....

CHRIS SUNUNU
The New Hampshire governor .....

VIVEK RAMASWAMY
A former biotechnology investor....

ROBERT KENNEDY JR.

An anti-vaccine activist, .....

MIKE POMPEO
Trump's former secretary of state ....

GLENN YOUNGKIN
The hedge fund manager ....

MARIANNE WILLIAMSON <<ninja edit by author
The best-selling author and self-help guru has launched her second, long shot bid for the White House. She ran as a Democrat in the 2020 presidential primary but dropped out of the race before any votes had been cast. She officially launched her latest campaign on March 23, saying she wants to challenge Democratic U.S. Joe Biden in the Democratic nominating race.

Reporting By Ross Colvin; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Nick Zieminski

upload_2023-4-21_14-52-7.png
 
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