Election 2024 Foreplay

TreeFrogTrader said:
I added my own cautionary note to my post while you be typing. They might be even. I doubt her four point polling lead out in the real world.

However, in regard to your caution about some of her polling lead coming from dems and independents, i am not sure that is the case. I believe they polled likely republican caucus goers and only republicans can vote. If that is not right, then point that out.
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In Iowa you can switch party affiliation all the way up until the doors close at 5 pm. The only real rule is that you can only participate in one caucus. This has always been a potential wrench in Iowa for as long as I have been following politics and why Iowa caucuses have been notoriously tough to poll for.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/regfaq.html
 
UsualName said:
In Iowa you can switch party affiliation all the way up until the doors close at 5 pm. The only real rule is that you can only participate in one caucus. This has always been a potential wrench in Iowa for as long as I have been following politics and why Iowa caucuses have been notoriously tough to poll for.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/regfaq.html
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Yep. I got that. But I believe the desmoine register poll was based on likely republican caucus goers. Gets fuzzy on how that is assessed. Someone who has previously voted dem but utters that they intend to register pub and vote. Ahhh, okay, sounds like kind of a sketchy unproven republican if they are counted.

Anyway, we shall see. I would not mind seeing some data from Iowa on what the party switching uptick looks like. Not sayin it is not available. Just sayin, that I have not seen it and that is one thing I would need to see to round out the view of things.

It is clear from an NBC poll that Haley has a pantload of independents and dems supporting her. I don't doubt that. But I need to see what the real live conversion rate looks like down at the registrars office. Undoubtedly been reported but I have not seen it.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Yep. I got that. But I believe the desmoine register poll was based on likely republican caucus goers. Gets fuzzy on how that is assessed. Someone who has previously voted dem but utters that they intend to register pub and vote. Ahhh, okay, sounds like kind of a sketchy unproven republican if they are counted.

Anyway, we shall see. I would not mind seeing some data from Iowa on what the party switching uptick looks like. Not sayin it is not available. Just sayin, that I have not seen it and that is one thing I would need to see to round out the view of things.

It is clear from an NBC poll that Haley has a pantload of independents and dems supporting her. I don't doubt that. But I need to see what the real live conversion rate looks like down at the registrars office. Undoubtedly been reported but I have not seen it.
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The poll I posted was the Selzer poll (Desmoinse Register) which has a rather gravity defying record of accuracy. But polls being polls could absolutely miss.
 
UsualName said:
The poll I posted was the Selzer poll (Desmoinse Register) which has a rather gravity defying record of accuracy. But polls being polls could absolutely miss.
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The other thing that is somewhat different is that this time in Iowa all the chatter is about second and third place. ie. Desantis vs. Haley. Polls can be accurate or not historically in regard to picking the first place winners but-how good they are at picking second versus third is probably more murky.

Why are we having to think this through anyway? Presumably CHATGPT would just give us the right answer. OR NOT.
 
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The stellar history of the Des Moines Register polls being noted, and the merits of Haley's rise and support being noted, I land the plane and give my final projection for the Iowa Caucus, which is basically the same as three days ago, to wit:

Plus 2 points (minimum) for Desantis over Haley.

This will give the haters here who love to stick something up my arse some material to work with. YOU ARE WELCOME. I am a giver.

Projections on - rather than before- caucus day do not count. Weasels here will please keep that in mind.
 
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