Quote from Cutten:
Where is your evidence that high oil prices are caused primarily by speculation? As opposed to the long-term supply/demand picture for oil.
Just consider the obvious facts - oil prices have been low for 2 decades, disincentivising exploration and production. There have been no truly major oil discoveries for ages. It is only fairly recently that high cost producers e.g. the Canadian oil sands companies have started coming on tap. That seems to indicate a long-term supply problem. And look at the demand side - China, India, Brazil, Russia, Eastern Europe, Asia all have much greater wealth and thus demand for oil than they did 10 years ago. That trend shows no sign of abating.
There were plenty of oil speculators around in 1998 and 1980 - that didn't stop the price collapsing. But the fundamental supply/demand factors I mentioned are *new* - they weren't there 10 years ago. Even 4-5 years ago they were far less important than now.
So, given that several major supply/demand fundamentals have all shifted in a few years in a very bullish way for oil prices, why do you identify speculation as the primary driver of higher prices, rather than the fundies? You can't make that claim and expect to be viewed as anything other than a crackpot unless you provide some solid evidence to back it up.