El Nino Watch

J

jem

Many who understand weather and climate realize the global cooling we have experienced this new century has contributed to the drought we are experiencing in the Western U.S.

Many of us are hoping for a strong el nino to bring back the warmed air, storms and rains.
2014 sported the beginnings of an el nino but then it looked like the warming water transfer fizzled out. Now it might have a second chance.

Here is the update..

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/...-2014-update-an-el-nino-mulligan/#more-114418

Yes, I’m using the term Mulligan as in a replayed golf shot. Ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave that had crossed the Pacific earlier this year. But we recently discussed and illustrated how a pool of subsurface warm water had broken off that Kelvin wave, returned west, and has now fed back into the western equatorial Pacific—priming the equatorial Pacific once again. (See Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?) With that recent “restocking” of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific, it looks like Mother Nature might be giving El Niño a second chance to develop this year.


This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of August 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May, theJune and the July updates. The post includes 3 gif animations and 13 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser. Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.
 
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We in the West are delighted to know that the reason why we have so little water is because it's so cold.

It's a comfort.

Really.
 
another douchey comment from db.

California and the southwest have gone through decades of drought in the past and it corresponds to la nina. some la nina's have last 50 years or more.

strong el nino's tend to bring rain. La nina brings drier air cause the ocean is cooler.

l





http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_26292169/california-drought-strong-el-nino-which-could-bring


To be sure, California could still have a wet winter to help fill depleted reservoirs, replenish streams and raise over-pumped water tables.

If a steady series of low-pressure systems develops off the Pacific Coast later in the year, that could bring tropical storms dumping rain in large amounts. The trend, known as an "atmospheric river" or "Pineapple Express," has soaked the state in the past. But it has been all but shut down over the past three years as unusually persistent ridges of high pressure off the coast pushed winter storms north to Canada instead.

But the possibility that a strong El Niño won't be there to help is "not good news, especially if we are using El Niño as an optimism index. It's not what we want to see," said meteorologist Jan Null, with Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga.

"It's like in poker," he added. "If you have one fewer spade out there, the odds of getting that flush are less."

Generally speaking, the warmer the ocean water during El Niño years, the greater the likelihood of heavy winter rainfall. During mild El Niño years, when the ocean water is only slightly warmer than historic averages, there are just as many drier-than-average winters in California as soaking ones.

Since 1951, there have been six winters with strong El Niño conditions. In four of them, rainfall from the Bay Area to Bakersfield was at least 140 percent of the historic average, Null found.

But in the 16 winters since 1951 when there was a weak or moderate El Niño, California experienced below-normal rainfall in six of them. There was average rainfall in five and above-normal precipitation in the other five.

Thursday's NOAA report was based on ocean temperature readings from dozens of buoys, wind measurements, satellite images and more than a dozen computer models from scientific agencies around the world.

In April, the report noted, Pacific Ocean waters were nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal along the equator from the surface down to about 1,000 feet deep. But by last month, they had cooled -- and are now half a degree cooler than normal. Wind bursts from Indonesia that had pushed warm water toward South America and the United States diminished. And huge amounts of heat dissipated and failed to trigger weather changes in the atmosphere.

"We've seen very lackluster atmospheric response," said NOAA's L'Heureux. "What typically happens with warm water in the eastern Pacific is that you see rainfall and winds shifting around. But it didn't happen. It didn't coalesce."

As a result, none of the world's major meteorological agencies is forecasting strong El Niño conditions this year. Most expect that Pacific waters will range from 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the historic average this fall, which would signal a weak El Niño.

The last strong El Niño event, in the winter of 1997-98, saw Pacific surface temperatures 5 degrees warmer than normal at some times. That led to drenching rainfall across California, landslides that closed Highway 1 in Big Sur and 35 counties being declared disaster areas.

After three drier-than-normal years, major California reservoirs -- from Shasta to Oroville to San Luis -- are only 20 to 35 percent full. Farmers in the Central Valley are furiously pumping groundwater wells to keep crops alive. The danger of fire is extreme. And last month the State Water Resources Control Board passed mandatory rules that prohibit all Californians from washing down pavement, irrigating lawns so much that water runs into the street and other excessive practices. Violators face fines of up to $500.

If the drought drags into a fourth year, dozens of cities across California will see strict water cutbacks, including rationing, said Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis. The state, he said, also is more likely to put in place rules regulating groundwater pumping and other long-delayed water efficiency reforms.

"It takes big droughts to make big changes in water policy in California," Lund said. "It would cinch the deal if we have another dry year."

Paul Rogers covers resources and environmental issues. Contact him at 408-920-5045. Follow him at Twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN.
 
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your post makes no sense.

We are living in a serious drought here in the south western U.S. Fact .

El nino's have been weak and almost switched off during the slight cooling our globe has experienced since 2001. fact

and many people, even agw nutter scientists are hoping the el nino is strong so that we have a good chance of strong rains here in the west. fact.

After some scientists were losing hope of a strong el nino it looks like there is still a chance.
 
jem said:
on thread after thread other posters tell you that your douchey posts make no sense yet you still think they do? maybe its time to adjust your meds or find a new way to get a paycheck.
More...

You have this obsession with douching. Have you talked to anybody about that?
 
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