El-Erian: Brace for 'violent' shocks

[VicBee]

I can't wait for the day an AI plugged to a quantum system fed with more variables than we can count comes up with quarterly and 5 year projections. Wouldn't take long for such a system to be more accurate than any humans can.

 

[Businessman]

Bear bounce?

They do say bear market rallies are better than the real thing.

 

[Businessman]

I can't wait for the day an AI plugged to a quantum system fed with more variables than we can count comes up with quarterly and 5 year projections.

I am still waiting for the AI that can predict short term price action in the markets.

 

[schizo]

Don't you actually do exactly what you belittle about others? You cried about high inflation back in 2020. No shit. Everyone did. But he took on a forecast about the characterization of inflation and went against the most powerful central bank in the world as an influential figure. How many others joined his camp back then? Very few

Don't you ever take the time to understand what others have written? Some actually take their time thinking about it before writing.

That said, I explicitly mentioned that my gripe with El-Erian and other economists is that they wait too damn long to make their calls. By then, it's become obvious even to lay people. In another word, their prediction is so obvious as to be unimportant.

 

[VicBee]

Don't you ever take the time to understand what others have written? Some actually take their time thinking about it before writing.

That said, I explicitly mentioned that my gripe with El-Erian and other economists is that they wait too damn long to make their calls. By then, it's become obvious even to lay people. In another word, their prediction is so obvious as to be unimportant.

I think everyone says everything all the time. The smart ones hedge their predictions by also saying the opposite ...

 

[Businessman]

it's become obvious even to lay people, In another word, their prediction is so obvious as to be unimportant.

I can agree with the late part. I disagree with the obvious part. It might be obvious to many of us on ET. But most people have no clue how bad things can get.

A few months ago i was talking to my 35 year relative about the recession that is coming up. His take was recessions are no big deal because in 2009 he was still able to find a job when he left college.

Jeff Bezos has been telling people not to spend on big ticket items. Late, yes, but better late than never. He might still reach one extra person and stop them taking an expensive car loan or scare them into delaying a house purchase.

I remember back in July 2001 i stretched myself to buy my first house. This was 15 months after the Nasdaq topped. Then I lost my job in August 2001, a few days before i moved in. The job market had still been strong the first half of 2001, and so i wasn't that worried. But then September 11th hit the job market hard. 2002 was not a fun year for me.

I don't remember any dire economic warnings in the middle of 2001, that would have made me think twice about buying that house. I guess there would have been some and that recession was so obvious to some, but that wasn't the kind of stuff i was reading or watching back then as a 29 year old. I did not join this forum until 2004.

 

[newwurldmn]

Calling a 0.25% 2year yield "liquidity" is a gross mischaracterization of what was done.

Criminal fucking banks is what we have. The idea that they could do shit like that and it would "maintain price stability" or enable "sustainable" growth is asinine.

Bring on the reckoning. Long overdue.

it did for the longest bull market /
Economic growth cycle in modern American history.

 

[zdreg]

I beg to differ. While El-Erian is a smart dude, he's reasoning is in line with the rest of the IMPOTENT (not important) economists, especially those at FOMC. He gives optimistic outlook when the stock market is buzzing and gives a dire outlook when it's in a downward spiral. In fact, he did just that during 2008 financial crisis as well.

UNLESS YOU'RE AN IDIOT, WHO WANTS TO HEAR A HINDSIGHT ANALYSIS? I mean, as an economist, you're supposed to make a correct forecast BEFORE shit hits the fan. What's the point of giving a doom and gloom scenario when EVERYONE knows that already?

As an economist you are supposed to make outrageous calls until one day of those calls turns out correctly. Then you will be feted by the press by cnbc , the WSJ and maybe even win a Noble prize. Your previous long record of erroneous forecasts will likely have been be long forgotten.

 

[Real Money]

it did for the longest bull market /
Economic growth cycle in modern American history.

Prolonging the cycle with zero-interest lending will debase the currency, cause bubbles in collateral asset markets, enable zombie corporations, and ultimately will reduce the central banks ability to fight inflation.

You may not get inflation right away, but you will get it eventually. And at that time, you will have crippled the central banks ability to fight it, and will then be dealing with a severely indebted economy, dependent on interest rate suppression.

You may support ZIRP, QE and all the "stimulus" measures the gov and banks put in place. But, ultimately, there is a price to pay.

 

[Zwaen]

I can't wait for the day an AI plugged to a quantum system fed with more variables than we can count comes up with quarterly and 5 year projections. Wouldn't take long for such a system to be more accurate than any humans can.

How woud you model unknown variables?