Either a BLACK TUESDAY, or Emergency Cut

To GLOBEX traders:
Tue Jan 22 02:30:19 2008 EST

SPH8, ESH8 went limit offer at 01:01 Chicago time and trading in the corresponding options have been halted.
ER2H8 went limit offer at 01:15 Chicago time and trading in the corresponding options have been halted.
 
Quote from anf123:

I'm pretty much a novice when it comes to the markets, especially futures, but why exactly are the futures down over 500 points? There doesn't seem to be anything "new" out there per se, not important enough to sell off THIS much, is there? US economy is headed towards recession, is probably in the process right now, but I thought this was known for some time.

I just recently learned about futures and so I don't know much about them historically, but what's the largest percentage drop you've seen in futures before the market opened?

Personally, I'm caught long in Suntech Power (STP) because I tried to make a quick buck, except obviously the market turned against me quickly. I should have just taken the loss awhile ago, but of course that would have made too much sense. Seeing the futures down this much, I'm wondering just how severe the selling will be, and if I should just get out when extended hours trading opens tomorrow? I've never traded during extended hours (like I said, I'm a newb), but those futures aren't exactly encouraging!
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No one can tell you what to do with your position.

As far as why the markets are down this big on this day, this is how markets move. Confluence of events move markets. It is incorrect to suggest that everyone knew the U.S. was headed for recession. Everyone did not know and does not know tonight.

The charts showed that there was weakness in the markets. Lots of people tried to pick a bottom on Friday afternoon and got long.

YM - 650
 
Quote from JJ2000426:

Lon Eagle:

The unwinding of Yen Carry Trade should cause Yen to go up and US Dollar to go down. That is because to unwind the carry trade, people dump US dollar, buy Yen to pay back the low interest Yen loan.

We see Yen appreciate against US dollar. But oddly US dollar index is also going up. That's illogical.
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The dollar has gone down against against the yen. But is has rallied against the European currencies.

As I said - perfectly logical.
 
Quote from traderNik:

No one can tell you what to do with your position.

As far as why the markets are down this big on this day, this is how markets move. Confluence of events move markets. It is incorrect to suggest that everyone knew the U.S. was headed for recession. Everyone did not know and does not know tonight.

The charts showed that there was weakness in the markets. Lots of people tried to pick a bottom on Friday afternoon and got long.

YM - 639
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Thanks for the reply.

I did not mean to sound "matter of fact" ish with my statement about the recession, I was just trying to say that it seemed the R word was an ongoing theme for some time, and so with such a large move downwards tonight, I find it somewhat strange considering there really doesn't seem to be any NEW news, just continued worry?

In any case, I think even a newb like myself knows this is not the time to be long in the market, a surprise rate cut isn't something I want to be banking on while my losses pile up. I think I'll try and exit my position in the extended hours session, I just hope the bid is somewhat respectable and my order gets executed before the losses mount even further.
 
anf123:

Wrong choice. Who would take your sell order pre-market. No one will. I won't. Sell me at $1 a share I might take your shares.

Better watch the day trade a bit before doing anything.

I am still watching the US dollar index. it is still going up like crazy. I don't know what is going on. Who is bidding up the US dollar?
 
Quote from JJ2000426:

anf123:

Wrong choice. Who would take your sell order pre-market. No one will. I won't. Sell me at $1 a share I might take your shares.

Better watch the day trade a bit before doing anything.
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Good question, I don't know! I've never dealt with extended hours trading and hence why I asked. But it seems to me, if a stock is somewhat active in pre-market action, wouldn't my order get executed? If it's being traded, there would seem to be a buyer at that price, or will I quickly find out the spread will be really wide and it is indeed better to wait for the market to open and see what happens?

(Obviously I'm not an "elite trader" and I'm still learning, but this much seems crystal clear -- being long is not a good idea right now!)
 
Quote from JJ2000426:


I am still watching the US dollar index. it is still going up like crazy. I don't know what is going on. Who is bidding up the US dollar?
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The dollar's been getting the shit kicked out of it for quite some time and, now that world market's are rolling over, other central banks will be cutting rates. Hence you've got an oversold currency rallying against increasingly overvalued currencies (in terms of rates and strength of their respective economies). That's my take on it anyway.
 
I continued to watch the dollar index. As the European markets open, I notice that the USD index finally begin to drop down from teh 77.31 high to now 77.10. British pound rallied against US dollar, as does the Euro.

Mean while, FTSE opened down much less than Asian market, and the red is shrinking. Looks like the Europeans got the clue that there will be an immediate rate cut before US market open today. I bet that will happen given how bad the global market has been in these past two days.
 
I wont bother replying again as you dont seem to be really listening or understanding how the fx markets work.

The reason the dollar has weakened in the past hour or so is for the exact same reasons as I suggested earlier. It has nothing to do with your theory that is should be weakening (and now catching up with your 'right' view) but rather the fact equities are rallying hard.

The FTSE has rallied about 200 ticks in past hour as have the European and Us indices. Hence the carry trades have rallied aggressively. Thus euro dollar and cable have rallied and the dollar yen has gone up in tandem. Exactly the opposite to what happened when stocks were tanking.
 
Pure nonsense, Lon Eagle. You can not claim the same reason for the previous dollar rally and then now for the dollar fall in the last hour.

The previous dollar rally was because TPTB jack it up to have some room for fall. Now the dollar fall back, as well as European stocks rally up from their open lows, is that some one got the clue that there WILL be an emergency rate cut before US open tomorrow.

I am damn sure that will happen. The European market has already responded that way.

Time to buy precious metals tomorrow. PAL, SWC, PAAS, SLW, SLV, SSRI, GG.
 
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