Einstein's puzzle: Can you sovle it?

the dude, who posted the door things must have the read Schwager book "New Market Wizards" as there is the puzzle originally stated.

Good one, tho
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Read the original since I knew one of the Market Wiz-bangs, but not the second. Guess it's not too surprising though that it made the rounds at trading desks.

Believe it or not, I have asked the above during interviews.
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I'm surprised Def....kind of had you pegged as a nice guy.


One, what's the answer to yours?
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You should switch from your first choice to the remaining closed door, and by doing so you increase your probability of choosing the auto from 33% to 67%. Initially this may seem to be counter-intuitive, because there are two remaining doors that ORIGINALLY had the same probability of hiding the car (33% for each of the three).

Consider however that after your first choice there are two groups, your choice which has 33% likelyhood, and the group of the other two which have combined 67% likelyhood. Since there is always at least one goat in the second group of two doors, the game show host does not change the relative likelyhood by showing you one goat (no new info about the two groups). What he does allow you to do is capture the entire 67% likelyhood by picking the remaining door of that second group.

If it still seems illogical, you can demostrate it definitively by looking at every one of the nine possible setups (Auto behind A and original choice = A; Auto behind A and original choice = B......) and tracking what happens when you switch and don't switch. By switching you will always win exactly 2/3 of the time.

O.

(in case any one actually tries this: three of the setups, when your first choice is correct, can be further subdivided but it is easy to see that the total probability of the divisions still sums to 1/9).
 
solving this type of puzzles. I don't know if Einstein really had anything to do with that. Read some books by Polya to get an idea how to do it. Anyway, I used to play with puzzles like that when I was a teenager. I am too old for that now...:cool:
 
Quote from def:

LOL, just looking to see how people think.
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So do you hire people who think just like management, are trained to say yes when told to do so and jump as high as management requests?

Ever see Office Space? Have you made the rounds lately at your local IB corporate office?
 
Quote from aphexcoil:



So do you hire people who think just like management, are trained to say yes when told to do so and jump as high as management requests?

Ever see Office Space? Have you made the rounds lately at your local IB corporate office?
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you'd be talking about the wrong company. i'm also talking about hiring traders.

office space? - no clue what you're talking about.
 
Quote from aphexcoil:



So do you hire people who think just like management, are trained to say yes when told to do so and jump as high as management requests?

Ever see Office Space? Have you made the rounds lately at your local IB corporate office?
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Aphie,

I know where you are coming from. Where I go to school is totally like the Passive-Aggressive environment in Office Space. You might want to reference the "The Knight vs. Def thread" over in the options section.

Hope this helps.

Derrick
 
Quote from Molon Labe:

Here's another puzzle.

imo, solving this one quickly incorporates skills a bit more relevant to daytrading than the other puzzles mentioned here.

http://www.simeonmagic.com/gemstonegame/
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I solved this one using logic, but it appears the one who goes first will always be the winner.

"How about a nice game of chess?"

Edit: It appears the one who goes first and knows the secret will always be the winner.
 
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