EIA weekly report

[Overnight]

Today after the report releases, there's a huge bull candle... definitely it doesn't make any sense

It makes logical sense. (The CL is finally making sense after a report? Go figure!)

Expected drop by EIA 1.3 mil, actual drop was 7.5 mil.

So you'd expect CL to run higher through the day after those numbers. Which it did! yay.

But what happened at the 9AM ET hour? What happened from 9AM to 9:15 AM ET? Pull up a 15 min candle chart. It should look a lot stronger than the 15 min candle from 10:30 to 10:45 ET.

 

[trawer29]

It makes logical sense. (The CL is finally making sense after a report? Go figure!)

View attachment 235111

Expected drop by EIA 1.3 mil, actual drop was 7.5 mil.

So you'd expect CL to run higher through the day after those numbers. Which it did! yay.

But what happened at the 9AM ET hour? What happened from 9AM to 9:15 AM ET? Pull up a 15 min candle chart. It should look a lot stronger than the 15 min candle from 10:30 to 10:45 ET.

So the more the CL decreases, the higher is the price as the inventory is getting more empty? If so, I think it may depend on the production capacity to have the entire picture of the situation...

Today at 9 AM ET hour a big bear candle formed whilst at 10:30 AM ET there was a bull candle (the former is stronger than the latter), but what are the reasons?

 

[Overnight]

So the more the CL decreases, the higher is the price as the inventory is getting more empty? If so, I think it may depend on the production capacity to have the entire picture of the situation...

That's the most general way to look at it, and the way that makes logical sense. Inventory less than projected? Supply shortage! Price should go up!

Today at 9 AM ET hour a big bear candle formed whilst at 10:30 AM ET there was a bull candle (the former is stronger than the latter), but what are the reasons?

Yes. What I meant above by it being a stronger bar, I meant as being more intense, not up per se. I do range-bars and not time, so I word things weirder because the difference between time-based traders and range-based traders is like night and day.

As for the reasons?

Today was an OPEC meeting day, and something must have come out/leaked about production at 9AM ET that caused the drop. Then 10:30 report hit, and the market took to that news. As the combination of those events was absorbed, CL drifted higher into the close.

There is just way too much stuff going on with the energy sector to make any specific ideation about how CL will move when the weekly inventory report drops.

EIA, API, Platts, OPEC...There are so many variables. Not to mention, the COVID impacting demand.

And now, another variable comes into the mix...hurricane season. We get a strong cat storm bearing down on the gulf, and it will get even more wacky. Especially on RB prices.

 

[trawer29]

That's the most general way to look at it, and the way that makes logical sense. Inventory less than projected? Supply shortage! Price should go up!



Yes. What I meant above by it being a stronger bar, I meant as being more intense, not up per se. I do range-bars and not time, so I word things weirder because the difference between time-based traders and range-based traders is like night and day.

As for the reasons?

Today was an OPEC meeting day, and something must have come out/leaked about production at 9AM ET that caused the drop. Then 10:30 report hit, and the market took to that news. As the combination of those events was absorbed, CL drifted higher into the close.

There is just way too much stuff going on with the energy sector to make any specific ideation about how CL will move when the weekly inventory report drops.

EIA, API, Platts, OPEC...There are so many variables. Not to mention, the COVID impacting demand.

And now, another variable comes into the mix...hurricane season. We get a strong cat storm bearing down on the gulf, and it will get even more wacky. Especially on RB prices.

You're right. Yesterday after the meeting they decided to increase the production rate and that's why the price felt down at 9 AM ET but the decrement of the inventories balanced the "bad" news.

I'll keep investigating on my own through this way