If you look over bear markets over the past 100 years you tend to have an initial dramatic sell-off (I'm not talking days or weeks I'm talking months/years) and the low from that sell-off is rarely penetrated by much and the market then rallies but it usually does take anywhere form 15-20 years to take out the previous high convincingly (which was established in 2000) so we could be churning along testing highs (14,000) failing or maybe even surpassing a bit, it's not an exact science but we probably will not see a 20 handle on the dow before let's say .... 2020.. and flame me all you want but we will see dow 50k within most our lifetimes, assuming most of you are below your mid 40's