EGO CHALLENGE (26 Sept 2003)

[DougS]

Quote from alfonso:




Well, I'm not sure if he's trading 1min charts or what, but I think he's style of trading is, and I think I've heard this termed used this way, a "canonballer"; meaning he keeps adding as a position moves against him.

Of course this can look brilliant when it works, but equally disastrous when it fails. I mean, he was carrying 30 contracts on a losing position today, if (and I'm not saying he would have) he took, what appears to be, his customary 4pt stop on all 30 it wouldn't have looked too pretty.

Still, it's possible that AMT never has such days, so all the more power to him.

This was my initial impression as well. Others have already asked in a general sense his decision-making process---to be a little more specific I'd be interested to hear his theories on scaling in/out of positions.

Doug

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from Ditch:



A little elaboration on my last remark. I find it funny, that someone, who likes to profile himself as the 'eminence grise' of this site, considering the advice you've been dissing out all over the place over the course of time, is the first to ask a person, who has put on a solid performance, how he does that. I don't doubt that you trade and can live from your trading, but that doesn't make you the trading-guru, many think you are.

I don't think I've ever held myself out to be a "trading guru". But I can tell you this my friend, you don't trade as long as I have without seeing plenty of changes.... changes that required adaptation, learning new tricks. I've asked questions most of my life, hopefully to learn something new. I don't assume I know everything.

The fact that YOU find a question funny says a great deal about you.

If you disagree with points that I make, please disagree with it. But this type of post does you considerable disservice.
OldTRader

 

[icarus618]

Quote from OldTrader:


OK, always appreciate getting myself straightened out as you say. But here's how he himself put it: "I did + 48 points today per 5 ES contracts ($250.00 X 48 points)."

Note he multiplies 48 points times the value per point of 5 contracts, which is $250. The implication being that he made a total of 48 points per 5 contract unit he traded. That means he made $12000.

Now, if I take the daily range of let's say 8 points, and multiply that by 5 contracts to make it comparable, what I get is $2000.

So the way I see this is it 6X, not 2X as you said.

Now admittedly, I did not go through his trades. Perhaps you did. Or perhaps he intended his results differently than I understood them. What am I missing here?

OldTrader

Maybe you were too dazzled by the rapidity of the trades and you forgot he was using a 5-contract increment to scale in and out of his position which got as large as 30 contracts.

Someone already posted the answer to your apparent riddle:

Quote from acrary:



Just figured your stuff on a per-contract basis. +15.437 avg per-contract. Not bad!!

You just made 12k....so why are you an aircraft mechanic???????

Great job, AMT4SWA! You obviously opened some eyes around here. Where did all the guys who are averaging 1-pt/day go?

 

[Lobster]

Quote from icarus618:


Where did all the guys who are averaging 1-pt/day go?

My guess is they are too busy laughing all the way to the bank, because if they AVERAGE one point per contract per day, they will be able to make 100000% per year.

 

[lindq]

I've watched AMT4SWA trade in another room for a couple weeks now. I sometimes think that he's gotten his hands on a chart of the ES a day ahead, he is so accurate in his predictions of price movement.

But there there are two downsides to watching him trade. First, at one time or another he manages to break about every rule in the book, so he's a questionable role model for anyone learning to trade. Remember, he's been at this for quite a while, and has great instincts.

Second, there's not much that's more intimidating than being in a trade when at the same time he takes the opposite position! He pulls trades out of thin air that leave you thinking, "What the hell was he seeing?" His skills are truly amazing.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from Lobster:



My guess is they are too busy laughing all the way to the bank, because if they AVERAGE one point per contract per day, they will be able to make 100000% per year.

LOL! It's fun to think even a lobster can slide down slippery slopes.

 

[OldTrader]

Quote from icarus618:



Maybe you were too dazzled by the rapidity of the trades and you forgot he was using a 5-contract increment to scale in and out of his position which got as large as 30 contracts.

Someone already posted the answer to your apparent riddle:



Great job, AMT4SWA! You obviously opened some eyes around here. Where did all the guys who are averaging 1-pt/day go?

No...I didn't forget that. Maybe you forgot to read my post. AFTER you bother to read my post, perhaps you can explain to me how someone else answered my apparent riddle. Or hell, maybe you can even explain it yourself!

OldTrader

 

[Mr Subliminal]

Quote from icarus618:

Great job, AMT4SWA! You obviously opened some eyes around here. Where did all the guys who are averaging 1-pt/day go?

icarus, you should know what happens to people who fly too high. Don't mock the 1 and 2 point-average performers, and don't confuse mean with variance. Without trying to detract from today's fine trading performance put on by AMT, I can certainly identify with the style and being the modest type, attach a snapshot of my trading account after a similar performance (averaging down, moving stops) last Thursday (September 18) which yielded a different result. Who was to expect such a strongly trending day? Well informed sources assure me it's just reversion to the mean.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from OldTrader:



No...I didn't forget that. Maybe you forgot to read my post. AFTER you bother to read my post, perhaps you can explain to me how someone else answered my apparent riddle. Or hell, maybe you can even explain it yourself!

OldTrader

Take a chill pill. I read your post and was merely pointing out what you're missing, which was the question you asked. Or was that a rhetorical question?

I'm not sure what's not to understand about calculating average points per contract to compare performance. Maybe you ARE missing something. Time for a remedial algebra course?

 

[icarus618]

Quote from Mr Subliminal:

icarus, you should know what happens to people who fly too high. Don't mock the 1 and 2 point-average performers, and don't confuse mean with variance. Without trying to detract from today's fine trading performance put on by AMT, I can certainly identify with the style and being the modest type, append a snapshot of my trading account after a similar performance (averaging down, moving stops) last Thursday (September 18) which yielded a different result. Who was to expect such a strongly trending day? Well informed sources assure me it's just reversion to the mean.

Mr. Sub, your point is taken. I'm not knocking anyone who makes any amount of money consistently through trading. I do know, however, that a 1-pt/day average is just ordinary performance in the spectrum of profitable trading. To insist otherwise, as some have done on ET, is plain silly.

If I came off sounding glib, well...I'm just having some fun.

Good trading to you.