Efficient market theory; Total junk still being taught to people?

The guys in the pit adapt. In the book the predictors they knew the broker with the big oil trade came in the same time everyday. After a while the pit just stopped trading aroundthat time and waited for the order and then spread out the market. That is just one of many examples of how the guys in pits operate. There was a time when everyone knew which broker was doing work for Soros so they tried to make money off of that. When we had those anthrax scares we knew(from listening) the sell off was over when merrill started bidding. If we learned this from off the floor, what do you think the guys in the pit noticed? If they are getting beat by the same pattern they adjust. I call this adapting and I think calling it organic is not a stretch.

So even though I sometimes argue with Te and his points (not because I always think he is always wrong but to develop the argument). And I too think that this zen stuff is at times an impostor, I have to support him on this organic statement.
 
Quote from Te':

WAR, SICKNESS, and PISS-POOR TRADING,
From all my schitzo ass aliases Commisso, Jcom, Publias, GordonGekko, FPC, Super Ego, etc...
More...


You are a very messed up individual. I will be scanning the news for more sniper action in anticipation of you snapping shortly.
 
Quote from jem:

So even though I sometimes argue with Te and his points (not because I always think he is always wrong but to develop the argument). And I too think that this zen stuff is at times an impostor, I have to support him on this organic statement.
More...

The market is a self-adaptive system composed of smaller components. Any system that grows more complex creates "lifelike" behavior. Look at traffic patterns in a major city. Traffic patterns are constantly self adaptive. If a route exists and people take it and that route eventually becomes seriously congested, individual drivers will seek new routes to get to their destination. This would cause the first route to become less congested while other routes become more congested. At some point, people will then go back to the original route.

Multiply this effect by thousands and hundreds of thousands of drivers and hundreds of routes, and you get chaos theory in action with traffic patterns.

The market is just another system that exhibits self-adaptive habits caused by the millions of participants.
 
Quote from jem:

The guys in the pit adapt. In the book the predictors they knew the broker with the big oil trade came in the same time everyday. After a while the pit just stopped trading aroundthat time and waited for the order and then spread out the market. That is just one of many examples of how the guys in pits operate. There was a time when everyone knew which broker was doing work for Soros so they tried to make money off of that. When we had those anthrax scares we knew(from listening) the sell off was over when merrill started bidding. If we learned this from off the floor, what do you think the guys in the pit noticed? If they are getting beat by the same pattern they adjust. I call this adapting and I think calling it organic is not a stretch.

So even though I sometimes argue with Te and his points (not because I always think he is always wrong but to develop the argument). And I too think that this zen stuff is at times an impostor, I have to support him on this organic statement.
More...

And that is EXACTLY what I meant by 'organic'... Nothing mystical, philosophical, or 'eastern flavored' about it...
 
Quote from aphexcoil:


MARKET'S ARE NOT RANDOM
Markets move from the emotions of the participants. Chaos does not equate to randomness.

[/B]
More...

Noneone said they were. But lack of randomness does not necessarily lead to the conclusion of overrall inefficiency.
 
Quote from vladiator:



Noneone said they were. But lack of randomness does not necessarily lead to the conclusion of overrall inefficiency.
More...

Is <i>Noneone</i> related to <i>Noone</i>?? These guys are often quoted here in ET.
 
Quote from buzzy2:

are you guys still posting to this thread?
well i didn't miss a lot over the last couple of days, just want to say one or two things.
first, if it is obvious to all how a newbie economist/wannabe trader can be so pigheaded, then you haven't seen anything, how about a tenured professor with lots of publications in those pamphlets they call finance journals? impossible to have a rational conversation... economists seem to think that science is a piss contest where he/she that pushes and hard-sells their argument more than anybody else is the best economist.
They are so afraid of losing, of looking bad, you will never hear anyone of them "i was wrong, what i'm doing wrong, how can i do things better" but it is exactly that flaw that brings their own demise. The ltcm guys thought they couldn't be wrong. With more than 40 billions at risk in the markets what they were doing? playing golf, on vacation, whatever, but not thinking: "i may be wrong, how can the market screw me, what can i do to survive if that happens"

second, there is a thread somewhere else on this board called epistemological epics or something like that, and i agree that as someone wrote, that the methodology, the way of thinking is the true "holy grail", this proves to me that a lot of people hanging here are smarter than any inflated academic. There are no hard and soft sciences. There is only science period. If economists had any clue what is "science" what is "knowledge" if they at least followed Popper, as good scientists do we wouldn't be discussing market efficiency.

And finally there is a neverending supply of evidence that the "efficient market theory" is crap, i just came across the article below today. EMT cannot be true because if most people believed it's true, then markets are not efficient. The article also makes clear why the EMT is successful in academia. Not because is scientifically proper, it is because EMT covers MBA mutual fund managers asses when their clients lose money and because CEOs don't have the whole population looking at their financial statements. Of course, university professors are rewarded for their "intellectual" efforts: company board positions, endowment contributions, new buildings etc etc.

The article is my next post, it's from today's financial times.
More...

You have just become a new proud addition to my "ignore list".
How can one be so freaking dumb, I'm baffled.
Fuck, and to think that I was gonna finally post here some pleasantly worded concession like: "You know guys, I freaking give up, having seen what has been going on with WMB the last hour of trading and in the afterhours, this market is oftened rigged beyond belief."
But your idiotic remarks about me being a newbie wannabe (in 99% likelihood going much better than you and trading more than you'll see) did change my intended tone.
But, on a final note to your snobby egotistic and narcissistic ass - I still believe that even faced with such abhorrent inefficiencies, until you give me a better and more all-embracing model, you can never say EMH is crap. Although, having seen your logic, I doubt you understand my point. You are that ant that crawls along the highway and will never be convinced that the surface IS generally very smooth. Step back pal and take a more general look at least for once in your freaking life. Don't be so obsessed with the elephants tail you don't see the whole animal.
And ALL your dumb opinings on the value of academic endeavors are just that -DUMB OPININGS and I will not dignify them with any rebuttal. EMH and conspiracy theory, MBA, CEO's... Are you freaking listening to yourself???
 
has the market behaviour changed in any reliable way since the PDT rule? that's would be interesting to see what effect if any on volitility etc and other market dynamics.

can anybody comment on this?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top