Efficient market theory; Total junk still being taught to people?

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from axeman:

I am determined and anyone can play basketball
as well as MJ. If you fail, then you didnt want
it bad enough.

Truth is.... there are plenty of people out there
that dont have the IQ/emotional control/discipline/whatever
that it takes to make a trader. No matter how hard
they try, they will fail.

peace

axeman

Many can play as well as MJ (not anyone) if they spend as much time training as early on. They have to have the innate skills and those acquired through training.
I agree with your latter point. More so, I happen to believe that there are very few people who can race a formula one car, others are best stting on the bench and watching.

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from Katrina Johns:

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Originally posted by Jim Bartley
When I first read your opening post I had to laugh........
then I read it again I REALLY laughed.

Seriously though, until YOU trade in real time you have no idea what your'e talking about. I don't mean to sound flippant or rude. There are litterally thousands of people in the markets with very good educations and more money than you will ever see, that you will be competing against. Assuming your strategy is valid, the only unknown variable is you, isn't it? Good luck.
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vladiator
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 301

04-02-02 06:17 PM
Re: Dear Vlad

That's why I'd rather take that variable out of the equation and have everything automated As for the competition, you are right. But what gives me hope is that what I've found appears to be a tiny niche that might have escaped their attention
Or so I hope.

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gee look who is trading market inefficiencies. haven't you heard vlad, the market is EFFICIENT

How dumb can you be, with all due respect? Just b/c there are tiny inefficiencies, does not the mean the market is inefficient. B/c finding them/trading on them will entail the costs and risk commensurate with returns. And such trading will make them evaporate. I'm glad you took the time to find one of my very early posts. A lot has changed since then. I was starting with only about 50 grand and the fund has since grown to above a mil. The more word gets one, the more people want to get in. e?Except that now I see that I'm beginning to exert so much pressure that the niche is close to be arbed away. THAT is the evidence of market efficiency.

Katrina Johns · Nov 9, 2002

Ok, vladiator, let's assume for one minute that this is correct (EMH) then how do you explain the not insignificant #'s of successful traders around here? are they all lying?

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from Katrina Johns:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=4795&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

Thanks for pointing it out. Except I don't see what kind of a point you can make with this. It took me many year to find what I found (and lots of really sophisticated training you won't get in your TA books that get cited here and there on this board.) I got some useful advice on the board on starting things up - clearly, I didn't have much of a knowledge of trading per se. That didn't take too long to figure out with other guys help. For that part, this board is a great resource, I freely admit.
We have since grown a LOT and are about to register with the SEC and get much bigger. Except that it won't be based on just one strategy any more, as they all have limits before they are arbed away. So.... What's you point???
I didn't come here asking advice just out of college with a BS in history..

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from Babak:

vladiator,

The mistake that the geniuses at LTCM made was thinking that the market 'should' do this or that. The market doesn't have to do dick all. Not for you. Not for me and certainly not for those guys. The market simply is.

Given how successful they were in general, I don't think you can call them idiots. And yes, they did assume the market would do this or that. And in most cases it did. In the case that brought them down, as far as I remember, they were just off in timing b/c it took longer for the market to realize that things were out of wack.

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from metooxx:

The only thing that matters ...

Do not forget that they DID make a lot more than most of us together have or will. They just got unlucky in one particular instance. Give the guys some respect...

Katrina Johns · Nov 9, 2002

vladiator you are very persuasive not sufficiently persuasive for me to forego all that i have seen with my own eyes. i see fairly easily exploitable opportunities every time i open one of my trading charts. the opportunities just pop out at you. REPEATABLE OPPORTUNTIES! from chart to chart and day to day.

how do you explain this??

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from Katrina Johns:

vladiator
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 301

09-14-02 07:40 AM

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Originally posted by aphexcoil
OldTrader,

Great post. Although I'm sorry to say that I can't give up my intraday chart. If I trade without it at this stage I'm just pissing in the wind (gail force, coming right at me).

Thanks for the insight. I agree with what you said.
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...and what happens if you do use the intraday chart? Smth like: "you are pissing in the wind (gail force, coming right at you)", but the chart has hypnotized you into thinking that you are at your lovely 30 million bucks worth beach mansion, taking a releaving piss in one of the twenty bathrooms you have there?"
It's all illusion, wake up.

Edit â¢ Quote â¢ Kill

aphexcoil
Elite Member

Registered: Aug 2002
Posts: 1418

11-09-02 02:17 AM

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Quote from bobcathy1:

I am not a guy. And I know a pile of female day traders in my little town in the Florida Keys. Not all women sit around and knit you know
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Do women masturbate during trading to relieve stress, too? If you haven't seen it already, someone did a poll on how many traders choke the snake during the day to relieve stress.

Needless to say, it got pretty graphic! Women have different ways of releaving stress compared to guys, though. Perhaps they (women) will just beat their husbands/boyfriends after a bad trading day?

__________________
aphie

"A successful person is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him."
-David Brink

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hmmm seems aphexcoil and vladiator both have the same unusual way of misspelling "releaving"

are you thinking what i am thinking

You can think whatever you want. English is my forth language so if I my spelling is messed up sometimes, I think it can be forgiven. I'm flattered you think my English is good enough to accually assume that I'm the same guy as Aphie, who is a native speaker.

By the way, if you dig enough on this board, you'll see that Aphie and I had enough disputes for him to probably hate my guts

vladiator · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from Katrina Johns:

Ok, vladiator, let's assume for one minute that this is correct (EMH) then how do you explain the not insignificant #'s of successful traders around here? are they all lying?

No, read my recent posts, I already explained it, if you can compehend it, that is. And to show you that I'm not Aphie, ja mogo svobodno zakonchit' eto predlozhenije na Russkom...
Or I can do it na Ukrainskom...

Babak · Nov 9, 2002

Quote from vladiator:

Do not forget that they DID make a lot more than most of us together have or will. They just got unlucky in one particular instance. Give the guys some respect...

"unlucky"?!?!? That is a whopper of a euphemism! You should be a spin doctor on the pay roll of a political party!!

They basically brought the financial world to the brink of total collapse!! 'got unlucky'.....

The only reason they made more money was because they were using leverage. What they were doing was not at all new or innovative or in any sense of the word worthy of 'genius'.

They were using well known arb opportunities that everyone on Wall Street had known about for years. The only thing was they were using MASSIVE leverage. I'll say it again: MASSIVE!!

I will never give those guys any respect. It is paramount for a trader to take responsability for their actions and the outcome. These guys never did and never will.

I find it fascinating that you don't say "They got lucky those first few years." but rather say "they were unlucky in the end".

If we introduce 'luck' into the scenario....then what is to say that the first few years was simply luck and not skill and their demise was simply the reversion to the mean?

That one sidedness is remarkabley naive. When you are making money, it is because you have a PhD and are smart. When you are losing money it is because you got 'unlucky'.

ohhh .....ok, now I got it!