Efficient market theory; Total junk still being taught to people?

Quote from trdrmac:


Do people in general feel the market is now more or less efficient than before Reg FD?
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I think it's possible that Reg FD has added undesirable shock volatility to the market by creating more "fire in a crowded theatre" type situations.

It used to be that informed money could get the buzz early and slip in or out in a low key manner, leaving enough of a footprint for wary traders to see which way the wind was blowing. Sort of an "early warning signal" allowing time for things to develop.

But now companies are much more tight lipped and thus the news has more of a "surprise factor" to it which leads to more mad scrambling. There are still insiders leaving footprints when they deviate from standard routines, but overall things have become less predictable imho.

p.s. though on the other hand, if you move quickly you may have more opportunities than before, and/or if you get in on insider footprints and then catch the ride when the mutuals get surprised, then maybe reg FD is a better deal after all. so who knows, LOL
 
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Originally posted by Jim Bartley
When I first read your opening post I had to laugh........
then I read it again I REALLY laughed.

Seriously though, until YOU trade in real time you have no idea what your'e talking about. I don't mean to sound flippant or rude. There are litterally thousands of people in the markets with very good educations and more money than you will ever see, that you will be competing against. Assuming your strategy is valid, the only unknown variable is you, isn't it? Good luck.
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vladiator
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 301

04-02-02 06:17 PM
Re: Dear Vlad

That's why I'd rather take that variable out of the equation and have everything automated As for the competition, you are right. But what gives me hope is that what I've found appears to be a tiny niche that might have escaped their attention
Or so I hope.

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gee look who is trading market inefficiencies. haven't you heard vlad, the market is EFFICIENT :D
 
Quote from vladiator:

Oh, come on you folks and your "get killed" story! What I have done testing the strategy amounts to having traded it for more than a year real time. 98% of trades are profitable, bootstrap simulations etc only confirm it. The reason I need big volume it to MAKE money. 100 shares per trades will not even pay for commissions. I was not asking you if I'd get killed or not, if I do, my investors get a tax deduction and I move on to something else.
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krusty3.gif
 
WOW! What a comical thread :p Some funny ish in here!

Hey Vlad, out of curiosity, have you ever actualy consistently traded profitably over any considerable span of time or do you just 'know' alot :confused:

I love you braniac types with your ivy degrees!
:D She and I will eat you up for breakfast, lunch and dinner...

EAT, EAT, EAT, EAT

She does not accomodate men trapped in their heads, she rewards thought coupled with muscular activity. Men trapped in thier heads never got shit done bro, be a Napolean ------> THINK & ACT!

And another ones gone... Pretty soon its just gonna be Dark, Tnt, Meetoox and Babak left :eek:
 
Quote from vladiator:

The LTCM example is also a very relevant one :) And yes, indeed they were right when everyone was wrong. It's just that sometimes it take a looooong time for those who are wrong to realize it and the LTCM guys didn't expect such a delay.
It's just as if you predicted that the market was overprice half way into the bubble and started shorting. Well, you would have been right in light of todays index levels, but whether you would weather the time it took is a different question :)
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vladiator,

The mistake that the geniuses at LTCM made was thinking that the market 'should' do this or that. The market doesn't have to do dick all. Not for you. Not for me and certainly not for those guys. The market simply is.

(apologies to commisso who has monopoly rights to zen sentences on ET)

There is one immutable way to know if you were 'right' or 'wrong'. And that is: Did you make money?

If you didn't make money you were wrong. And all the philosophising and mental/statistical gymnastics aren't going to get you anywhere.

Not only did they possess hubris in quantities that would make a Greek playwright swoon...they continue to adamantly deny any opportunity to really learn anything about the market by insisting that the market must follow the neat theories they come up with on paper and spreadsheets.

They are idiot savants.
 
Quote from Babak:


There is one immutable way to know if you were 'right' or 'wrong'. And that is: Did you make money?

If you didn't make money you were wrong. And all the philosophising and mental/statistical gymnastics aren't going to get you anywhere.
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The only thing that matters ...
 
Quote from Babak:




(apologies to commisso who has monopoly rights to zen sentences on ET)
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Commisso told me to tell you that he forgives you and that you can use the zen phrases whenever your little heart desires :p
 
vladiator
Senior Member

Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 301


09-14-02 07:40 AM


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Originally posted by aphexcoil
OldTrader,

Great post. Although I'm sorry to say that I can't give up my intraday chart. If I trade without it at this stage I'm just pissing in the wind (gail force, coming right at me).

Thanks for the insight. I agree with what you said.
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...and what happens if you do use the intraday chart? Smth like: "you are pissing in the wind (gail force, coming right at you)", but the chart has hypnotized you into thinking that you are at your lovely 30 million bucks worth beach mansion, taking a releaving piss in one of the twenty bathrooms you have there?"
It's all illusion, wake up.


Edit • Quote • Kill









aphexcoil
Elite Member

Registered: Aug 2002
Posts: 1418


11-09-02 02:17 AM



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Quote from bobcathy1:

I am not a guy. And I know a pile of female day traders in my little town in the Florida Keys. Not all women sit around and knit you know
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Do women masturbate during trading to relieve stress, too? If you haven't seen it already, someone did a poll on how many traders choke the snake during the day to relieve stress.

Needless to say, it got pretty graphic! Women have different ways of releaving stress compared to guys, though. Perhaps they (women) will just beat their husbands/boyfriends after a bad trading day?


__________________
aphie

"A successful person is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at him."
-David Brink




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hmmm seems aphexcoil and vladiator both have the same unusual way of misspelling "releaving":)


are you thinking what i am thinking:D
 
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