Effect of Elections on Market
- Thread starter Ayn Rand
- Start date
Hard to tell really. Much better to just follow the trend. Good trading is reactive and not predictive because it is far harder to predict what will happen next. Much easier to follow the trend once, it has been established. Trends do last longer than most traders think.
Indeed, a split congress has usually been good for markets. But when was the last time we had a split congress with 8.5% inflation?
All bets are off.
There's a high likelihood that markets will rally regardless of who gets in. I looked at the historical data for the SPX for all midterm election years since 1930 and if you bought the day after the election and held for about 250 days the average return was 14.6% with 91% of the years positive (21 out of 23). The negative years were 1930 and 1938.
None of them had Powell + high inflation. Your stats are about to get buggered.
Yes, this kind of stat I've been aware of while I see the usual crew on here explaining why we'll crash contrary to most historical precedents.
With over 250 election deniers boosting the big lie as part of the red wave candidates, we’ll have greater concerns then the market.
The red wave also wants to kill SS and Medicare, who are gonna be buying products and services when boomers start retiring?
Usually elections have very little effects on the market I find. I haven't witnessed any huge market movements either before or after the elections.