Going Into Wall Street
by John Train
I am frequently asked about the best background for the investment business. To start with, I am quite sure what it isn't : majoring in economics and then entering Wall Street. That's like recommending that an aspiring author should go straight from college into writing, or that a future saint should study theology and then enter church administration, or that a budding Cassanova should start with a doctorate in anatomy. In all these matters one needs first to know the world have practical experience. You invest in specific human operations--manufacturing, retailing, banking, technology--a different affair from building theories out of figures.
And economics, like weather prediction at the turn of the century, is still a proto-science. It may become a real one but does not yet meet an important test of science, namely, that it can be used as a predictive tool. Basic questions still mystify the experts. Nobody predicted the huge boom of the Reagan years, when industry grew by an amount equal to West Germany's entire economy and the stock market tripled. Nobody seems to be able to predict the price of gold, or what a higher yen will do to our trade with Japan. Most of our basic economic statistics are misleading, including unemployment, poverty, homelessness, and the federal deficit. George Soros, today's greatest investor, was trained as an economist but decided that classical economics can't explain the stock market. Warren Buffett, another great, not only avoids economic formulas but says that he does not even use a calculator. He examines companies, beginning with the people and the impregnability of the firm's niche or "business franchise." When I asked Peter Lynch, who ranks with either of them, how much time he spends on economics, he replied, after some reflection, "A little less than fifteen minutes a year." So economics is not a particularly useful background for Wall Street
Investment success requires above all a knowledge of business, which must include the ability to read and interpret figures, the language of business; a feeling for how people function; and a wide and deep judgment of affairs in general. It is almost indispensable to have some personal experience of business operations, which is what investment is about; a share of stock makes you a small partner in some enterprise. Ideally, you should have worked near a company's decision-making level, but at least you should have spent time out in the operating world. A few years with a management consulting firm is an admirable background, since you are plunged into a variety of different activities. Above all, since most things don't work, you learn how matters go awry. (They probably wouldn't call in a consultant if there weren't problems.) So you see a lot quickly, as with battlefield medicine.
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