have no idea what we are talking about,but the thread is about an edge...
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edge?
- Thread starter Took2Summit
- Start date
have no idea what we are talking about,but the thread is about an edge...
Quote from Took2Summit:
right, and i agree with you, i also would not have participated in black monday, and im sure a lot of us would have gotten out scratch free. i wasn't making the point to say black monday could/would wipe us out, i made the point to say you can't really rely on probabilities when the possibility of an 18SD event can occur.
i used to play poker professionally (had to stop thanks to doj). i had a tried and true 12% roi in the games i played. with that said, there were times i would go playing literally hundreds of thousands of hands losing money, but i would keep playing the way i knew because i knew in a sample of 5 million hands i would have a 12% roi, and it was true. this is because i had a statistical edge.
in trading, your what you presume to be an edge can vanish, and you can play the next 100,000 hands assuming you have a 12% roi, when now you have a -2% roi because unknown variables entered the game. and to compound matters even worse, you might even actually make your 12% over these 100,000 hands when you now actually have a -2% roi, thus adding to the delusion.
so, is it possible to have an edge? any strategy at any point can have a new variable added to it, and you could make tons of money before you figure out that there's a new variable, however that variable could have taken away your edge, even though you are still making money.
That's not true. As a former poker player you don't have defined edge because the players are constantly changing around you. If you continue playing in the same way or style and don't adjust your going to be beat.
I.E. if you played 10% of your hands in 2004 in cash games in 2004 you were probably able to rake it in until 2006 when the poker landscape began change.
Quote from actionzip54:
That's not true. As a former poker player you don't have defined edge because the players are constantly changing around you. If you continue playing in the same way or style and don't adjust your going to be beat.
I.E. if you played 10% of your hands in 2004 in cash games in 2004 you were probably able to rake it in until 2006 when the poker landscape began change.
you obviously don't know much about poker. my edge is determined when i get my money in better then my opponent, and doing so over a long period of time. for instance my pocket pair vs his two overs all in pre flop gives me a 52-55% chance of winning the hands based on the cards. this is a definable edge getting my money in good.
in trading you can get your money in better then your opponent as well, but from my knowledge there is no way to put an actual percentage on it like the example i just gave where i have a 52-55% chance of winning the hand (trade).
Quote from TheMagican:
have no idea what we are talking about,but the thread is about an edge...
You said that Black Swans occur on a 1 second time frame in SI...
Not sure how one could capitalize one that in the realm of trading with a statistical edge.
Why i asked if were talking about trading or gambling here but hell if you can make it work all the power to you
The circumstance you describe is certainly an easily calculated edge. But how do you know he has two overs? Might he not also have a pocket pair and might that pair be 10's to your 9's. And might not he be sitting behind you so that you do not even get to see his bet before your first decision point?
Given that there is no ante to see a "hand" in trading nor do I need to vary my play to maintain a table image (allowing me to play more quality every time I pull the trigger ... not just sometimes) I think it is easier to have an edge in trading.
I spent 10 weeks living in AC (essentially the summer of 2007) and, given my accommodations were modest, I covered expenses almost to the penny but no better. The problem with poker is if you are playing 5/10 NL it starts to get hard to get consistently faded when you have strength unless you are VERY good at mixing it up. In 1/2 they fade almost every time but the stakes do not warrant the time.
Given that there is no ante to see a "hand" in trading nor do I need to vary my play to maintain a table image (allowing me to play more quality every time I pull the trigger ... not just sometimes) I think it is easier to have an edge in trading.
I spent 10 weeks living in AC (essentially the summer of 2007) and, given my accommodations were modest, I covered expenses almost to the penny but no better. The problem with poker is if you are playing 5/10 NL it starts to get hard to get consistently faded when you have strength unless you are VERY good at mixing it up. In 1/2 they fade almost every time but the stakes do not warrant the time.
Quote from Took2Summit:
you obviously don't know much about poker. my edge is determined when i get my money in better then my opponent, and doing so over a long period of time. for instance my pocket pair vs his two overs all in pre flop gives me a 52-55% chance of winning the hands based on the cards. this is a definable edge getting my money in good.
in trading you can get your money in better then your opponent as well, but from my knowledge there is no way to put an actual percentage on it like the example i just gave where i have a 52-55% chance of winning the hand (trade).
Probabilities based on price pattern recognition tend to be static. Probabilities based on indicator settings do not tend to be static.
I actually name some of my pattern recognition setups based on Poker hand nicknames (American Airlines, King Kongs, etc)...this helps me associate a probability of success with the pattern...which also helps me determine my bet size....just like in poker
I actually name some of my pattern recognition setups based on Poker hand nicknames (American Airlines, King Kongs, etc)...this helps me associate a probability of success with the pattern...which also helps me determine my bet size....just like in poker
Took the answer is simple there is no such thing as an edge in the real sense of the word , here what i wrote in another thread :
Quote from Surprise:
But that not the edge the retail traders are looking for , i will tell you what i consider an edge : if you have billions then you have edge , if your servers are nearer to the exchange to get the flow faster and to front run you have an edge , if you are an insider then you have an edge , looking at the charts to predict whats gonna happen is not an edge , the market is very efficient , if a certain setup is going to make money for sure then algos and everyone will jump in to take advantage which will make this setup obsolete immediately , so to say there is an edge in market profile or TA ... etc is counterproductive !
Thius is why i prefer to not daytrade. BACKUP pLAN. I swing trade and have a day job, no matter how much drudgery the day job is, having it is a good backup plan to black monday. It is probably the best backup plan one can have to a black monday event. Plus it sounds better to other people when they ask what you do for a living.
hey baby, I got real edge
everytime I buy it goes up
and everytime I sell it goes down
I am like edge master
I got this edge thing down
Nobody can stop me now
Because I got edge
Know what I'm talkin about?
You gotta have edge
Can't trade without it
If you don't have some
Get some
Everybody should get some edge
Edge is cool
It's the new thing
EDGE: Never leave home without it
and don't forget to check out new Edge Shampoo
Guaranteed to put that life back in your dating routine
If you ever had a winning trade, you may have edge
sign up for our free questionnaire
Everybody wants it
Everybody needs it
EDGE it's what trading is all about
everytime I buy it goes up
and everytime I sell it goes down
I am like edge master
I got this edge thing down
Nobody can stop me now
Because I got edge
Know what I'm talkin about?
You gotta have edge
Can't trade without it
If you don't have some
Get some
Everybody should get some edge
Edge is cool
It's the new thing
EDGE: Never leave home without it
and don't forget to check out new Edge Shampoo
Guaranteed to put that life back in your dating routine
If you ever had a winning trade, you may have edge
sign up for our free questionnaire
Everybody wants it
Everybody needs it
EDGE it's what trading is all about