"Edge Challenge" - prove us wrong!!
- Thread starter in56
- Start date
I could care less. The "edge" is getting the allocation which is a rigged game, not trading the aftermarket. The aftermarket is anyone's guess unless you have an 'edge' in gauging the aftermarket flow. How does it feel to sell a stock and have it go up 500% 5 months later? Same difference, just random guessing. I admit it doesn't feel good, but, logically it's part of the game and you get immune to those kind of emotions after you've sold the high print a few times only to see the stock break price. This is trading with an 'edge' vs. guessing and emotional trading. Judging from your past comments, I know that you are smart enough to know all of this already...
lol. I wish I was half as smart as you think I am.
I've been playing the IPO game for years, done it all, sold the 1st print (sold that vile Kramers pos TSCM at the open , something like 65), and have held ipos for bigger gains, and everything in between.
Still don't like to see them gap away after I've sold. Seems like I got suckered out. They always paint a downtick that makes you want sell before it goes to zero.
I've been playing the IPO game for years, done it all, sold the 1st print (sold that vile Kramers pos TSCM at the open , something like 65), and have held ipos for bigger gains, and everything in between.
Still don't like to see them gap away after I've sold. Seems like I got suckered out. They always paint a downtick that makes you want sell before it goes to zero.
bluedemon77
Guest
Steve, I was not able to find a definition of this term. What do you mean by "stationarity," other than non-random?
Chuck
A stationary time series is one in which the underlying rules that generate the series do not change over time.
Consider a simple example. A small urn filled with different colored marbles (100 white, 50 blue, 50 red, 25 black). You shake the urn, remove 1 marble, write down the color and put it back in the urn. Repeat at least one hundred times. The series of colors you will have generated is "stationary".
Now we do that again, but without our knowing, someone has come in to the room and removed 50 white marbles. So we go through the process again. In this instance we do not have a stationary series, because the relative distribution of colors has changed. This is called a "non-stationary" time series.
This is how the market works. As you watch the prices move up and down, YOU have no clue as to whether the series is stationary or not. In order to find out you have to submit the series to specific tests.
As I have said before, go buy the book
"Mathematics of Technical Analysis" by Clifford Sherry
Read it, do the exercises. Learn something worthwhile.
Steve
Consider a simple example. A small urn filled with different colored marbles (100 white, 50 blue, 50 red, 25 black). You shake the urn, remove 1 marble, write down the color and put it back in the urn. Repeat at least one hundred times. The series of colors you will have generated is "stationary".
Now we do that again, but without our knowing, someone has come in to the room and removed 50 white marbles. So we go through the process again. In this instance we do not have a stationary series, because the relative distribution of colors has changed. This is called a "non-stationary" time series.
This is how the market works. As you watch the prices move up and down, YOU have no clue as to whether the series is stationary or not. In order to find out you have to submit the series to specific tests.
As I have said before, go buy the book
"Mathematics of Technical Analysis" by Clifford Sherry
Read it, do the exercises. Learn something worthwhile.
Steve
bluedemon77
Guest
That's helpful, Steve. Thanks. I'll put the book on my Amazon shopping list.
Chuck