Ed Seykota says....

C

chipmunk

End of day trend following you make about 25% p.a.

People who claim higher are simply taking bigger risks and will have bigger losses.

I used to disagree with this and thought 70%+ returns were possible. and i did it until I got my ass handed to me on a plate.

I now agree with him. Take small risks. 25% p.a No need to watch the quotes, take it easy.
 
Quote from chipmunk:

End of day trend following you make about 25% p.a.

People who claim higher are simply taking bigger risks and will have bigger losses.
More...

So what?If the system has positive expectation your return will rise along with the drawdown. As a long you are comfortably away from risk of ruin you make more money. Unless you are making 25% pa getting pretty close to being bankrupt of course
 
Quote from chipmunk:

End of day trend following you make about 25% p.a.

People who claim higher are simply taking bigger risks and will have bigger losses.

I used to disagree with this and thought 70%+ returns were possible. and i did it until I got my ass handed to me on a plate.

I now agree with him. Take small risks. 25% p.a No need to watch the quotes, take it easy.
More...
Could you provide a link? And isn't the term "trend following" rather generic? I don't think all trend following systems or methods are necessarily created equal.
 
"trend following" I guess he means end of day. Profits bigger than losses. Keep going until stopped out.

Google:

Ed Seykota

:eek:
 
Quote from chipmunk:

End of day trend following you make about 25% p.a.

People who claim higher are simply taking bigger risks and will have bigger losses.

I used to disagree with this and thought 70%+ returns were possible. and i did it until I got my ass handed to me on a plate.

I now agree with him. Take small risks. 25% p.a No need to watch the quotes, take it easy.
More...

He tends to say the mar type of ratio for end of day trend following systems is typically between 1:1 to 2:1.

So if you want to make 60% a year, you should probably expect 40% drawdowns.
 
OMG Piker Newbie slam Ed Seykota....R.O.F.L.

I suggest my little piker you go and read about Ed first. He's about the most grounded person in the trading arean you will find. He doesn't say it's easy he says it's achievable. Gonig for bigger gains means taking on bigger risks.

Google him and read ehat he says then come back and apologise. :mad:
 
I tend to go for the 2:1 ratio. So if you want to shoot for 100% gaisn you bettter be fine with losing half your money in trying to ahieve this. 2 losing years and I guess it's game over. So that is a game of luck.

30% p.a = 15% drawdowns...that's better.

So if Piker says "I can make you 200%.."

RUN!
 
Crap. With trend following the market decides how much you make, not you or your system. It is where past performance is totally meaningless. You have no control over the developing trends. You can make 10%, 50% or even 150% with the same risk and money management strategy depending on how far the trends go.

This is basic knowledge for anyone with just a little exposure to the markets and trend following.
 
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