Economy is not like 1990/1 or 2001/2

[detective]

The consumer was still alive and kicking back in those days. Oil was cheap, real wages were higher, and the household balance sheet was much stronger. As Julian Robertson points out, most US consumers are broke.

All those idiots on TV who think the US will be first in first out haven't looked at the fundamentals. European and Asian consumers are in much better shape than the US consumer. Europe and Asia will outperform the US over the next several years, although they will be in recession as well, just not as deep.

Lastly, the yen is not strong only because of the unwind of the yen carry trade. Look at the money supply growth for the yen, euro, dollar, and the emerging market currencies over the last 10 years. The money supply growth has by far been the lowest for the yen. Also, the Japanese have much stronger banks than the Europeans or Americans.

 

[GermanTrader]

Today is more serious than 2001-2002. Never before in history has the taxpayer been saddled with blank-check debt like this, with nothing to show for it.

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from GermanTrader:

Today is more serious than 2001-2002. Never before in history has the taxpayer been saddled with blank-check debt like this, with nothing to show for it.

The 1970s and Vietnam. We'll inflate our way out of it. FWIW, the economy seems so much like the 1970s to me, having been through it. High priced oil, hard to find good rental property, high food prices that climb constantly. Heck, even our fashions are the same. Now all we need is good music.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from detective:

The consumer was still alive and kicking back in those days. Oil was cheap, real wages were higher, and the household balance sheet was much stronger. As Julian Robertson points out, most US consumers are broke.

All those idiots on TV who think the US will be first in first out haven't looked at the fundamentals. European and Asian consumers are in much better shape than the US consumer. Europe and Asia will outperform the US over the next several years, although they will be in recession as well, just not as deep.

Lastly, the yen is not strong only because of the unwind of the yen carry trade. Look at the money supply growth for the yen, euro, dollar, and the emerging market currencies over the last 10 years. The money supply growth has by far been the lowest for the yen. Also, the Japanese have much stronger banks than the Europeans or Americans.

Wrong again. The US consumer has not been hurt at all, or possibly just a little at worse off. This mental recession is no worse than the one in 2001 or 1991. That is because unemployment is still quite low, and wages and productivity, and personal income keep rising. Consumers still have access to tons of credit and liquidity through credit cards.