Economy books, macro-economic outlook for amateur investors?

SunTrader said:
Right, it doesn't.

Hard to trade (or invest) with your nose stuck in a book.
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Lol better look like an idiot than you open your mouth and remove all doubt.

What do you think happens to a company’s revenue when gdp rises? How does an improving economic situation change the way corporate managers make investment decisions? What drives interest rates and what is their impact on the value of an asset?

Studying economics teaches you historical context, theories explaining relationships, and the tools required to assess and analyze economic information. Should be a prerequisite before opening a brokerage account imo.

By the way, you don’t need to have formally taken economics to learn the concepts and how they should be applied. It may require a few hours of upfront study, but that time spent is worth far more than the hours you spend watching YouTube scammers “teach” you how to find “breakouts” on a chart. :rolleyes:
 
katrx84 said:
Hi
Do any of you gentleman, professionals in the field and/or knowledgeable amateurs alike, have any particular economy books recommendations for an amateur investor trying to get a better understanding of how macro-economic factors influence the stock market(s)?
The purpose of getting this knowledge, besides the intellectual satisfaction, would be to avoid doing stupid things in times of relative economic uncertainty or policy shifts.
This isn't my area of expertise and there's a lot of offers everywhere, but neither enough lifetimes to read all the offers, neither enough budget for all the books.
Thanks in advance for your time.
Regards
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Not a book, but I'd say read news and publications: WDJ, FT, BB, The Economist...
 
longandshort said:
I’m glad you seriously thought about pursuing a PhD in economics. Truly.
Paul Krugman won the Nobel for his work on economic geography, which is quite brilliant especially in today’s climate.
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There was some controversy over his Nobel. And I think the meaning of that prize has diminished and become more politicized over the decades. It doesn't change his really bad track record, either.

I'm not sure the academic economics route would've been so good for me. My white male friends with doctorates in any "social science-y" fields had huge problems getting good positions, regardless of their accomplishments. I've faced the same thing outside of academia, but I digress. Also, too many economists have inferiority complexes and try to turn the field into a sub-branch of math or physics.
 
MKTrader said:
There was some controversy over his Nobel. And I think the meaning of that prize has diminished and become more politicized over the decades. It doesn't change his really bad track record, either.

I'm not sure the academic economics route would've been so good for me. My white male friends with doctorates in any "social science-y" fields had huge problems getting good positions, regardless of their accomplishments. I've faced the same thing outside of academia, but I digress. Also, too many economists have inferiority complexes and try to turn the field into a sub-branch of math or physics.
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That link is not about his Nobel, which he won in 2008. You sound like you see yourself as a victim.
 
katrx84 said:
Thank you all for the feedback.
"The Intelligent Investor" and "The Dark Side of Valuation" are on their way already. Much appreciated for your prompt feedback gentlemen.
All the best.
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I don't think the intelligent investor will give you the economics background you require. You may be better suited to getting an econometrics course on Coursera/Edx, or a full years worth of economics on EdX. Graham's books (including his lesser known book on financial valuation) are wonderful additions to any INVESTORS library. Though, personally, I would advise getting the audiobook of the intelligent investor instead and listening to it throughout the day. The book itself is extremely dry.

Having taken an econometrics class I found it useful. I took a semester-ish worth of econ and it was a total waste of time from a trading perspective. If you understand the fundamentals of supply and demand, the federal reserve, how currency is created, inflation/deflation, etc you already know more than most traders. Econometrics dovetails into fama-french, regression, and a bunch of other generally useful tools you may find interesting for modeling economic phenomenon.

If you intend to trade forex, foreign exchange futures, or bonds/bond futures you will be well serviced by a comprehensive set of economics classes from your favorite MOOC. Economics is so esoteric at times it's, in my opinion, better to have a professor to hold your hand. Otherwise, stick with the basics. Maybe pick up The Selfish Gene to understand fear and greed so you understand the kind of brainless single cell organisms trading in the market today.

longandshort said:
Peter Lynch did his MBA at Wharton — you bet he took stats and calculus lol.
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I'm friends with a few Wharton MBAs. Absolutely brilliant at business but I would not trust them with an actuarial table. He likely took calculus and stats (to get the degree) but that's not where his shitloads of money are made. I think that's what the GP was getting at.

longandshort said:
What do you think happens to a company’s revenue when gdp rises?
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In the current market? Easy. Fed prints another 2 trillion dollars, gives tendies to everyone, tendies are given to robinhood and stonk go up. More tendies are given to companies which use said tendies to buyback their stock, artificially raising the price, and stonk go up. Blackrock uses tendies to buy up massive swaths of property, driving lumber futures to record highs, and lumber stonks go up. By the transitive property I can conclude that stonk always go up.

Macro/graham/actually_knowing_anything investing is dead until this bubble pops. The guys controlling the market are the guys picking their nose on the construction site trading their piker account on whatever WSB is shilling today. How else can you explain companies with absolutely no sign of profit trading at massive multiples. Easier to just head back to momentum trading and ride the wave of retards.
 
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gaussian said:
I'm friends with a few Wharton MBAs. Absolutely brilliant at business but I would not trust them with an actuarial table. He likely took calculus and stats (to get the degree) but that's not where his shitloads of money are made. I think that's what the GP was getting at.
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I didn't say otherwise.
 
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