Economists on the RUN

..."The key dictum was that policymakers should be told that trade was good for everyone in all places and times.”
Trade IS good! But not for everyone in all places and times. Sadly, U.S. Trade policy is currently being decided by a man, who seems to only hear echoes, doesn't read, and obviously understands little at a cerebral level. He's not helping.

Globalization is inevitable. We can't stop it, nor should we want to. For nations, the trick is to participate in the natural course of globalization so as to bring aggregate benefit to an entire economy. That's difficult, but I'm confident it's doable. Although we have made mistakes, with good leadership we won't repeat them. We can, and will, do much better going forward. We must anticipate which components of our economy will be affected adversely by trade agreements and prepare in advance to mitigate adverse effects.* Going forward, we can continue to participate in globalization and do it either badly or well, but attempting to create a closed economy in a world of open economies will not only be impossible but a disastrous mistake as well.

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*This implies that there will be necessary changes in public education. Change doesn't come easily to most of us; highly competent leadership is needed to to overcome inevitable resistance.

Recognizing that, with notable exceptions, the most competent to lead in technical matters often have no appetite for the political arena, we won't succeed in making the necessary changes without the forming of effective political and technical alliances.

[Two excellent examples of "notable exceptions," referred to above, would be: a) Daniel Patrick Moynihan (deceased), an expert in history and sociology, and in particular on the Soviet economy; b) Elizabeth Warren, an expert on U.S. bankruptcy law, and certain areas of finance. Moynihan was also a consummate politician, as is Elizabeth warren today. Another two excellent examples, drawn from earlier times, would be John Adams and Thomas Jefferson.]
 
Foreign Policy, Oct. 2019

Economists on the Run
Paul Krugman and other mainstream trade experts are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization: It hurt American workers far more than they thought it would.

Paul Krugman has never suffered fools gladly..............
TLDR, especially the annoying strike-thru section, but if Krugman now thinks globalization is wrong .... he is now wrong.

This world is truly upside when far right and far left agree on something.
 
I don't think Germany has more capable workers than US. We have enough tech kids to fill the private companies. Blame the underperformance to the oversized unions. And Germany has problem of aging popultion and shortage of labors, that is why they opened the flood gate and let in a million refugees.

Germany has handled the situation well. Then again unlike the US it doesn't have a seemingly permanent underclass. Not everybody goes to university. It has a widespread apprentice program. Workers are retrained. In the US we have barely literate college graduates who are not capable of working in the private sector. Corporations in the US have non- productive human resource department to protect themselves against discrimination lawsuits. etc. etc.

Germany is prosperous. Unlike the whiners in the US they don't claim China is putting them out of the business.
 
I don't think Germany has more capable workers than US. We have enough tech kids to fill the private companies. Blame the underperformance to the oversized unions...
So how do you determine this? Their unions are probably as old as the country. Why suddenly now are they a problem?
 
I get what you're saying, and in terms of manufacturing and apprentice work you are 110% correct. The US really needs to emphasize building things for ourselves, even when it costs a premium. Unfortunately - Quarterly Earnings puts a premium on cheapest cost regardless. Manufacturing has so many worthwhile ancillary support jobs required - from IT, tooling, materials and supplies to subcontracting to restaurants to building and grounds services.

Germany's car industry is undergoing some major upheaval at present. And it's going to get worse. Last year, 50,000 jobs were lost in the sector. There are something like 869,000 Germans employed in the auto industry - far more than any other EU Country. Daimler and BMW are kinda stuck in an ultra premium ICE niche and they don't have the flexibility that VW has. Daimler has already warned analysts that their profits are going to really come off the next few years. I remember reading an FT article last year that German auto units were expected to decline by 10 percent per year. And this was in 2019 - before COVID.

US needs to compete like Germany, on the high end products. It already is of course but that needs to increase. On the lower end products, there's too many competitors, I don't see how US would be able to do anything.

US companies seem to have massive overhead, which isn't necessary for the core business at all. Overpaid lawyers, CEOs that are paid more than anywhere else, too many marketing people (gotta do those woke posts on Twitter, that's a job!).
 
It is the public sector unions that are ruining the US.

They are no doubt responsible for the current state of affairs making it just about impossible for local governments to fire bad police officers. This is a bit off topic but it is a truth.
 
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