Economic Sanctions as a Weapon

[piezoe]

Unless the trend changes, China could have military and economic superiority in 10 to 20 years. Maybe even less.
This should never have happened. The west has enabled China and it will regret it one day.

It is the height of naivety to write, "This should never have happened," as though we, or any peoples, had the power to alter the precession of the planets about the Sun. Of course it should and will happen. Why would you think any nation would be so foolish as to try and prevent a nation of a billion people from militarily and economically developing? Economic development is good for China and all the nations of the world. And given the nature of our species, it would be a mistake for China not to develop militarily as well.

The danger is that China is not sufficiently democratic. The less democratic a nation, the greater the chance that a Head of State becomes another Putin. More democratic countries are not immune to this danger. However the stronger the democratic institutions in a nation are, the better the chances they will be able to prevent a total takeover by autocrats. Regardless, under good leadership, there is no logical reason why China will not become, in time, the world's largest economy. There is absolutely no harm in that so long as their government remains sufficiently moral and benign so as not to threaten World order. Moral and benign is not the same as "perfect." Chinese people are also a variety of Homo sapiens. And their weaknesses are the same as our weaknesses and those of all other Homo sapiens. We are, at least in 2022, powerless to change the fundamental nature of our species.

 

[smallfil]

It is getting worst on the inflation front in the US and Europe. Further escalation on the war front, can only worsen the inflation in the US and Europe. The plan for Poland to supply some of its jets to Ukraine could start a NATO vs Russia confrontation. War mongers in Congress and cable tv still pushing for a no fly zone on top of that. We could be closer to World War 3 than we realize. Let us hope cooler heads prevail. Otherwise, tactical nuclear weapons could get used in Ukraine and neighboring states, Estonia, Latvia and Poland. Even a limited use of tactical nuclear weapons on both sides will shower those countries with radioactive dust not counting the intense radiation, which will kill more people in short order.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...er-due-to-russia-sanctions-ing-150822165.html

 

[terr]

South Korea just joined the Western sanctions regime against the Russian Central bank. And will add more sanctions soon.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Bill Ackman is once again touting his "HELL IS COMING" horn. This time about World-War III.

I can only assume he's got shorts on, and will cover very soon with a special announcement that he simply realized that in order to survive we all must have PEACE, and so he's changed his ways and it is ok to go LONG now.

 

[piezoe]

Russia can just as easily sanction/confiscate from US people and/or companies.

Of course, and it will have zero impact on the U.S. Government's ability to enforce crippling economic sanctions on Russia.

 

[piezoe]

<< Western companies will weather Russia nationalizations if those occur. Russia won't. >>

I have not factchecked your numbers. It would serve no purpose anyway.

Meanwhile, Russia is a nuclear power. It also has tactical nuclear weapons, as well as highly capable, some would argue the finest, cyber-attackers in the world. Oh yea... For now, it supplies energy to the EU. And used to supply upwards of 30% of the worlds fertilizer and measurable percentage of certain grains. Fertilizer and grains have since been halted for export (to the west). And the USA continues to pay upwards of 70 to 100 million a day to Russia for oil, despite US imposed sanctions.

To think China, Iran, North Korea, and others would not line-up on the side of Russia to secure it's survival is wishful, and ostrich-like.

In the present context, North Korea is irrelevant. Iran is about to enter back into trade with the Western nations as a part of the revitalized nuclear pact about to be signed. Most likely the U.S. and European nations will resume petroleum trading with Iran. China will do what is in China's best interest. A major fraction of it's export/import trading is with the Western alliance nations including Australia and Japan. That can be compared to China's export/import trade with Russia. What would you do if you were Xi? I would imagine Xi will maneuver to obtain long term commodity purchase contracts with Russia at opportune prices, all the while trying not to antagonize the Western alliance.. It should be a difficult balancing act. Any thought that Xi would openly align with Russia is of course nonsense.

A fundamental and irresolvable-in-the-short-run problem for Russia is the dissymmetry between the Western Alliance's dependence on imports from Russia versus Russian dependence on Western alliance nations. Whereas Russia has, under sanctions, far too few sources for its critical import needs, the Western alliance sources are broad and comprehensive. Though the absence of Russia as a source is a great inconvenience to the Western alliance nations, these nations can, nevertheless, do without any Russian petroleum or other commodities. They have substitute sources for everything! On the other hand, Russia and its allied nations path to replacing some critical imports is longer and more arduous. The Russian people are used to empty store shelves, but we all have a limit to the number of times we will say "not again" before we look for more systemic solutions to alleviate our annoyances.

In modern times, there is a total historical absence of a single nation, strong as it may be, taking on a majority of the world's other nations in war and winning. Will nuclear weapons be the difference now. I doubt it. Mentally unbalanced, maniacal leaders will arise from time to time, their history too is such that one would be wise not to bet on their long term success, once they have lost all restraint.

 

[nitrene]

In modern times, there is a total historical absence of a single nation, strong as it may be, taking on a majority of the world's other nations in war and winning.

That seems true. Where did the Nazis get their energy needs during their blitzkrieg though western Europe?

This conflict seems more and more like a kamikaze run by Putin. I guess he knows if he loses he could face jail or death.