Hi there,
I am currently backtesting potential profit from trading on economic releases. My idea is to research on a worlwide basis the economic indicators (US,Canada, GB,etc) and trade them based on statistics. I am also reaerching on Oil (oil inventories) , Tbond and emini volatilty (economic news).
I am starting off with US Non farm Payrolls data and trying to get an idea how the market reacts to the news depending on the unexpected actual data. For example if median estimate of Non farm Payrolls is 100k and it comes below 50k the eur/usd would probably jump in the first 2 minutes around 40 pips and then it might retreat. I know is delivered at the same time as Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings probably bringing some noise to it , but Non farm Payrolls is what market care most.
The potential profit can be determined statiscally after "hard" work on data, even though as I am working in a high volatility environment I have to test it with 10.000usd (1 lot in FX) to see if it works (after working on data). I am planing trading this idea with FX. I´ve checked the time sales of the EUR futures and I could not see if it is better than FX. Here is what happened on 05-Jan-07 (consensus 100K and actual was 167k):
Before announcement the future EUR/USD was trading @ 1.3129
@ 8:30:00 price reached to 1.3104
@ 8:30:01 price reached to 1.3095
@ 8:31:00 price reached to 1.3065
As FX is not a centralized market I do not have time and saled to trust on.
Any idea which asset (FX or future?) is the most suitable for this kind of strategy?
Anyway, I see execution as a very important aspect. Although, I have bloomberg (I get news with no delay) broker execution is extremely important added that I will place a market order...ouch!
In the future if works for me I might use an API with Interactive Brokers to improve order execution. Anyone have done something similar?
I would like to know if any of you is trading/researching this strategy. Perhaps we can exchange thoughts or codevelop. If you wish to discuss/develop this topic privately please email me at
emarco@fibertel.com.ar
Best Regards
Juan