I read yesterday that one of the most important components of most of the election models is economic growth right before an election.
This is why having hard left economist Janet Yellen in the position she holds is invaluable to the democrats.
It's why the GOPe are such turncoats for giving the democrats anything they wanted in this years budget.
And finally, it's why having economic numbers that are determined by easily manipulated models by the bls and bea are also worth their weight in gold to an incumbent administration. We may be in a recession right now. But if we are, don't count on being informed of it until adjustments are made to the numbers following, oh, about the middle of november.