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Tradestrong: Secondly:
China wants one thing from Brazil and I hate to be frank but.... Your commodities (which it can't produce) and to steal your technology. It doesn't want your manufactured goods or anything else. This relationship with China will be pretty much one-sided. Mark my words. China will help to prop up your economy and then try to rape it through unfair trade practices as it has tried to do with the US economy. If Brazil resists, then the trading relationship will never grow and all Brazil will ever export to China are its commodities. (If a protectionist war doesn't develop first). Mark my words on this.
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January 11, 2009
SouthAmerica: You said: âThis relationship with China will be pretty much one-sided.â
You did not read my 4-part article about âChina investing $200 billion dollars in Brazilâ â If you had read that article then you would know that the relationship between China and Brazil would be at an equal level.
Remember it is not only China that wants Brazilian technology Brazil also wants Chinese technology in many areas. By implementing my economic development plan in Brazil with money borrowed from China the Chinese would be helping lift the boats to over 200 million Brazilians and creating a nice new market for their products. The larger the new middle-class in Brazil the more products they can buy from China and vice-versa. It is easier to build an infrastructure and create a middle-class for a country such as Brazil with a total labor force of about 100 million people than in a country such as China with a population of over 1.4 billion people and a labor force of 800 million people.
A rising middle-class in Brazil would consume more products from China in turn helping create more jobs in the Chinese economy. It is a win-win situation for everybody.
Brazil doesnât have only the resources that I mentioned on that article, Brazil has a beautiful coastline from north to south and the Brazilian beaches are great. I have not met yet a person who did not love the food in Brazil from feijoada to churrasco, in general Brazilian foods are delicious including the deserts.
You can find the most beautiful woman in the world in Brazil and we have a lot of beautiful women around. Brazilian fashion and design is becoming very popular. Brazil is becoming well known for its design and creativity not only in fashion but also in business.
The more business Brazil does with China the better, and we can develop a very large tourism business between Brazil and China in the coming years mainly after Brazil starts opening casinos in new up-scale shore resorts similar to the French Riviera along the magnificent and beautiful coastline in Brazil.
You can bet it will be a relationship of equals, and both countries can grow to its potentials and prosper beyond anyoneâs imagination. Brazil and China will become the rising stars and powerhouses of the new millennium.
By the way, last night I had dinner with a group of Brazilians and during our conversation a fellow Brazilian told me something that I was not aware of regarding what is happening in China in the area of shoe manufacturing for the export market.
I had mentioned on my postings on this forum what happened to the shoe industry in Brazil and how almost overnight the Chinese destructed that vibrant industry that we had in Brazil in the 1970âs and 1980âs.
After the collapse of the shoe industry in Brazil many of these Brazilian shoe manufacturers opened operations in China.
Going back to my fellow Brazilian that I met last night â a few days ago he saw news from a Brazilian source saying that right now a large number of shoe manufacturers are closing operations in China for one reason or another, but many of the surviving companies in China are the Brazilian manufacturers that were forced by Chinese competition to move their operations into China.
Brazil and China should move forward with a complementary economic development plan such as the one that I proposed on my article.
The new Barack Obama administration will concentrate in figuring out how the new economic system that the United States has adopted in 2008 will work in the future and at the same time they are going to inherit the Perfect Storm and a wrecked economy in every sense of the word. The Barack Obama administration has a lot on their plate and they will need to figure out how to reconstruct the US economy from the ground up and they will concentrate in fixing the US economy the best way they can.
Regarding international business a Barack Obama administration probably will pay much more attention to the African Continent and see what the US can do to help develop the economies of many countries on that continent. (Africa has a vast amount of under developed natural resources)
I will be very disappointed if Barack Obama does not try to help the African countries to help develop their economies and lift the boats of the population of that continent.
Barack Obama is becoming US president at a time when the US economy is imploding and spiraling out of control and we are entering the first Great Depression of the new Millennium.
The American people and many people around the world have unrealistic expectations on what Barack Obama can do when he becomes the new president of the United States â and all these people are going to be very disappointed when Barack Obama canât perform miracles â since at this point only a major Miracle would help turn around this massive mess that we have in the US economy.
Barack Obama is surrounding himself with an outstanding economic team â but these people also canât perform miracles.
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piezoe: Your analysis and predictions, SA, agree with my own. Now if one could only accurately predict the rate at which these events will unfold we would have something really useful. The US depends on the "kindness of strangers" to allow its consumption to outpace its productivity. How long can this go on? A very long time i would guess. But eventually the US will no longer be able to borrow and print its way to "happiness."
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SouthAmerica: Americans still are in denial, but the party is over and you can bet on that.
The rest of the world will not allow the United States to continue the international monetary game of the last 50 years. The world has changed in ways that most Americans have not realized as yet.
The rest of the world are not stupid and they will adjust accordingly â we have reached the end of the line for an international monetary system based on the US dollar â mainly now that the value of the US dollar is being turned into CONFETTI.
The game is over; the US economy and financial system that we knew no longer exists. The United States has adopted a new economic system that I am still not sure how the new system is going to work in the future.
In the 12-month period October 31, 2007 to October 31, 2008 global stock markets lost US$ 30 trillion dollars in value. People from around the world blame the United States for this massive loss in stock market wealth.
An article on January 9, 2009 on The Financial Times (UK) about South America said: âAcross the continent, the crisis has brought about a large-scale destruction of wealth. Claudio Loser, a former western hemisphere chief at the International Monetary Fund, calculates that 40 per cent of Latin America's financial wealth was wiped out in the first 11 months of 2008 through falls in stock and other asset markets and currency depreciation." (The loss in wealth is estimated to be around US$2.2 trillion dollars.)
These are severe losses for a very short period of time, and people are pissed around the world â and they are a bunch of fools if they donât have a major overreaction to this intolerable situation, and the only way to correct this mess is for the major economies from around the world to develop a new international monetary system that takes in consideration the new economic realities of the global economy of the 21st Century.
Keep in mind many emerging countries around the world including countries such as Brazil had been working very hard for many years to build a very sound economy and a very healthy government balance sheet and almost overnight everything went up in smoke because of the reckless economic and financial policies in the United States â a country that has a very special status in the global economy because of its currency and because the current international monetary system is based on this collapsing currency. (For all practical purposes the US dollar is in the process of being turned into Confetti.)
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