Economic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyond
- Thread starter SouthAmerica
- Start date
Excellent Commentary
I 1000% agree with you....excellent insight ...
How would one best capitalize on your forecasts..?
I understand tips...and I understand Central Bank currency strategies...The CBs currencies plays are more difficult to implement but the rewards are more predictable than stocks...and the opportunities occur only occasionally...
What instruments would you use...and on what time frame to capitalize on your views...which I think are excellent...some of the best I have ever read...?
I 1000% agree with you....excellent insight ...
How would one best capitalize on your forecasts..?
I understand tips...and I understand Central Bank currency strategies...The CBs currencies plays are more difficult to implement but the rewards are more predictable than stocks...and the opportunities occur only occasionally...
What instruments would you use...and on what time frame to capitalize on your views...which I think are excellent...some of the best I have ever read...?
I can't believe I actually read some of this thread. Then again, I can't believe any actually believes any of the shit posted.
SouthAmerica...
Other issues are the options for investing money...
Let´s say you have $100,000,000,000 to invest...and you have 100 companies to choose from...
The 100 companies are capitalized by the world´s stock markets and are very available and have already proven that their distribution is worldwide...and they have already made use of the cheapest and best labor in the world...
Ok..so 10 of the stronger countries start a biase to another currency because the country of previous choice decided to put itself into debt two times what it normally has done in the past...
The catch22 however is that if the countries shift to the other currency ...this would be an election of lower productivity and inefficiency...In other words that would be moving from what was a increasing less certain economic value to an even more uncertain economic value...
...........................................................................................
The agreements about value are paper agreements....
Real assets are real assets...
Lets say you have a row of buildings that are worth $1 billion...The buildings became part of a bad debt picture and were liquidated at 10 cents on the dollar....The buildings are the same today as they were yesterday...
The most recent example of this was Kmart...it was brought into bankruptcy ¨failed legal agreements¨...and when the new agreements were made the value escalated dramatically in less than one year...
.......................................................................................
In other words what other country has a better true asset base than the US..and thus valuations are based on legal agreements which only temporarily represent supposed values...????
Other issues are the options for investing money...
Let´s say you have $100,000,000,000 to invest...and you have 100 companies to choose from...
The 100 companies are capitalized by the world´s stock markets and are very available and have already proven that their distribution is worldwide...and they have already made use of the cheapest and best labor in the world...
Ok..so 10 of the stronger countries start a biase to another currency because the country of previous choice decided to put itself into debt two times what it normally has done in the past...
The catch22 however is that if the countries shift to the other currency ...this would be an election of lower productivity and inefficiency...In other words that would be moving from what was a increasing less certain economic value to an even more uncertain economic value...
...........................................................................................
The agreements about value are paper agreements....
Real assets are real assets...
Lets say you have a row of buildings that are worth $1 billion...The buildings became part of a bad debt picture and were liquidated at 10 cents on the dollar....The buildings are the same today as they were yesterday...
The most recent example of this was Kmart...it was brought into bankruptcy ¨failed legal agreements¨...and when the new agreements were made the value escalated dramatically in less than one year...
.......................................................................................
In other words what other country has a better true asset base than the US..and thus valuations are based on legal agreements which only temporarily represent supposed values...????
Are you so confident that you are short the dollar & the market and long gold?
1) The 2001-2002 recession and market crash was the 2nd most severe in history after 1929. So your great depression already happened, don't wait for another one to come.
2) As the economy grows and get bigger and more diverse, it also gets more stable and recover faster. An entire part of the economy could crumble and the other part would barely feel it's effects.
3) China's explosion makes 2 things: the world is getting richer and there's a redistribution in wealth. Meaning the formerly richest country in the world feel things are going bad, but they aren't.
4) The world banking/financial system is almost perfectly integrated unlike 1929. And the world's financial ressources ain't concentrated in a single country anymore like in 1929. So forget about a global meltdown like 1929! Risk is diversified among many.
5) Almost everybody agrees that stocks are still too highly priced and that P/E are too high. Since 2004 we see strong economic growth, profits rise and stovck markets stays still. That's how too high P/E ratio correct themselves in the long-run. Look at history, we've seen decade-long stagnation in the markets, we might live another one. I don't see a meltdown to 5000-7000 pts for the DOW.
I'll be there in 2008 to laugh at your predictions!
Things are doing good. How fast will we grow once 1 billion Chinese gets to our level of technology and start puching R&D to improve it? 5 times the amount of brain power we have now in R&D, that will be something!
2) As the economy grows and get bigger and more diverse, it also gets more stable and recover faster. An entire part of the economy could crumble and the other part would barely feel it's effects.
3) China's explosion makes 2 things: the world is getting richer and there's a redistribution in wealth. Meaning the formerly richest country in the world feel things are going bad, but they aren't.
4) The world banking/financial system is almost perfectly integrated unlike 1929. And the world's financial ressources ain't concentrated in a single country anymore like in 1929. So forget about a global meltdown like 1929! Risk is diversified among many.
5) Almost everybody agrees that stocks are still too highly priced and that P/E are too high. Since 2004 we see strong economic growth, profits rise and stovck markets stays still. That's how too high P/E ratio correct themselves in the long-run. Look at history, we've seen decade-long stagnation in the markets, we might live another one. I don't see a meltdown to 5000-7000 pts for the DOW.
I'll be there in 2008 to laugh at your predictions!
Things are doing good. How fast will we grow once 1 billion Chinese gets to our level of technology and start puching R&D to improve it? 5 times the amount of brain power we have now in R&D, that will be something!.
SouthAmerica: Reply to Jayford
Here are my predictions from November 5, 2004.
Remember the US Fed Funds rate on November 5, 2004 was at 2 percent level.
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SouthAmerica: Reply to Jayford
Here are my predictions from November 5, 2004.
Remember the US Fed Funds rate on November 5, 2004 was at 2 percent level.
.
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Nazzdack: Your pessimistically-biased forecasts are boring. We'll export our "Paper Asset Mania" to your country.
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April 27, 2006
SouthAmerica: Reply to Nazzdack
I started writing an article in October of 2005 and the article was 80 percent done in a short period of time â then I got stuck on how to end the article because what I say in the article about the US economy will also affect the Brazilian economy in many similar ways.
It took me six months, but finally the final piece of the puzzle came to me and I finished that article â I am polishing it for the last time and after going thru the final proofreading the article will be ready to be published.
After you read my article then you will understand why I am so pessimistic about the US economy in the coming years â the article is very straightforward and clear.
.
Nazzdack: Your pessimistically-biased forecasts are boring. We'll export our "Paper Asset Mania" to your country.
*********
April 27, 2006
SouthAmerica: Reply to Nazzdack
I started writing an article in October of 2005 and the article was 80 percent done in a short period of time â then I got stuck on how to end the article because what I say in the article about the US economy will also affect the Brazilian economy in many similar ways.
It took me six months, but finally the final piece of the puzzle came to me and I finished that article â I am polishing it for the last time and after going thru the final proofreading the article will be ready to be published.
After you read my article then you will understand why I am so pessimistic about the US economy in the coming years â the article is very straightforward and clear.
.