Economic forecast for the 6-12 months

peilthetraveler

peilthetraveler

September 18, 2008

Peilthetraveler: This is my prediction, south america style! (except i will be right with my predictions)



Current gold price is right around 900 per ounce and yesterday we had the biggest one day gain in gold EVER. Despite this happening, i predict 500 dollar gold in the next 6 to 12 months.

Oil is 98 per barrel right now and its dropped from 147 in the last 2 months....despite this, its going to keep going down to 60 in the next 6 to 12 months(maybe sooner)

Silver will hit 7 dollars per ounce in the next 6-12 months.

Euro will touch 1.25 by years end and be down to 1.15-1.20 in 6 to 12 months.

In 12 months you will see an incredible economic recovery has happened in the U.S. and you will see a much stronger dollar against other currencies.

I dont want to put this in the 6 to 12 month range, but we will see a near collapse of the middle eastern economy in under 3 years. It will be very bad for them and they are gonna blame us for it.

These are nice and simple easy to read predictions with no explanations why I predicted this way because i know most people dont read articles if they are long winded like south americas articles.
 
I am interested in knowing how you came to these conclusions.

First post BTW. I'm not a trader, I just find the markets fascinating.
 
UPDATE!!!!!!!!


Wow...was only a little over a month ago I made that prediction and some are going a little faster than even I expected. Lets see how I did.

Euro was at 1.43 to the dollar when I made that prediction and now it touched 1.29 tonight.

Oil was 98 when I made the prediction and its been flirting with the 70 dollar mark trying to break support. (It will dont worry no matter what OPEC tries to do, it aint going back to 140 anytime soon)

Silver was 12.35 when i made the prediction and now its 9.90ish (after going up the last couple of days) This one could fluctuate wildly so if it hits 16 bucks next month, dont call me out just yet. It WILL go to 7 in the next 5 months or so and probably back to 5 in a year.

Gold was 872 when i made the prediction. Today is 766 and its on its way to 500 just like i said.


Going to add 1 more prediction that i didnt make before. Philippine peso is at 48 to the dollar right now. Its going to 52-55 before summer. If i had to make any sure bet and put my life savings on the line, this is the bet i would make, but make sure I would leave room for wild 1 to 1.5 peso swings.


So I will be proclaiming myself the prince of economics when all my currency/commodities positions come true and once the US economy comes back to life and in a few years when IRAN/saudi arabia and all those guys are on their way to hell in a handbasket, i will have my corronation and take my crown and proclaim myself King of Economics and ALL of you will tell me what a genius I am.

Or you will do like you always do and say "We all saw it coming too. You didnt see anything special"


Liars.
 
Nice call. It would have been better if you called it 2 years ago... but who can complain :)

Not to get "South America", but why do you see the US economy improving in the next 12 months? I agree with all your predictions, except that one, as a major consumer recession lies dead ahead. As consumer spending is 70% of the economy, how does the economy improve so much within 12 months (or if you're counting, 11 months). The only way I can see it improving is relative to other countries in the world....e., the dollar is a safe haven compared to others. But an improving economy, as in flourishing? Not a chance! What say you?
 
Quote from BosyBillups:

Nice call. It would have been better if you called it 2 years ago... but who can complain :)

Not to get "South America", but why do you see the US economy improving in the next 12 months? I agree with all your predictions, except that one, as a major consumer recession lies dead ahead. As consumer spending is 70% of the economy, how does the economy improve so much within 12 months (or if you're counting, 11 months). The only way I can see it improving is relative to other countries in the world....e., the dollar is a safe haven compared to others. But an improving economy, as in flourishing? Not a chance! What say you?
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Relative strength of the US dollar vs other currencies will cause a flight from gold, lower oil prices, and most importantly make those imported goods that the US consumer lives on that much cheaper and easier to consume.
 
Quote from BosyBillups:

Nice call. It would have been better if you called it 2 years ago... but who can complain :)

Not to get "South America", but why do you see the US economy improving in the next 12 months? I agree with all your predictions, except that one, as a major consumer recession lies dead ahead. As consumer spending is 70% of the economy, how does the economy improve so much within 12 months (or if you're counting, 11 months). The only way I can see it improving is relative to other countries in the world....e., the dollar is a safe haven compared to others. But an improving economy, as in flourishing? Not a chance! What say you?
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Just what broken trades said. Look at all the minor currencies. The dollar has strengthened a minimum of at least 10% on most of them in the last few months. (and this month we have seen some major strengthening.) Even the indian rupee has lost 20% of its value which means its 20% cheaper now for us to buy their crap and export jobs to them! :P If you look at the USD/CNY you will see that it just started its turnaround too, and in the next few months I believe the USD will gain about 10% there too.(so we should see WMT revenues up! haha)

Business's will start making more money again, hire back all those people they laid off who will in turn start buying all that crap they dont need again. But there will also be people flooding to the US to buy assets as they are freaked about their currency losing value. I think we will see alot of europeans coming here when they see the EURO hit 1.15-1.20 and freaking out that the euro will hit 80 cents to the dollar like it did when it first came out. Think about that. If you thought your currency was going to lose 50% of its value and real estate was still high priced in your country, wouldnt you want to rush to a country that had hit a "bottom" in real estate like the United states?

But more than that is basic psycology. When the doom and gloomers are out in full force and have got joe plumber running scared, its time to go the other way. Just like when all those people on the news were talking about booming real estate prices in 2005 and the the market would not go down it would just "level off" I was busy selling my house and rushing to rent. When all those people thought Visa was going to be the next MA with a 5 fold increase in stock price. I said "no thank you" All those jokers in SIRI that told me buying at 3 dollars was a bargin because they would "merge with XMSR" soon and the price would go to 20. I said no thank you (price is at 34 cents now and i think they still think its going up!)

Also when the next president is elected I think the stock market will go back above 10,000 and for some messed up reason, the new president will get the credit for it doesnt matter who gets elected. (which is why I hope Obama doesnt become president as his "followers" are already deluded enough....they dont need any more encouragement)
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

Just what broken trades said. Look at all the minor currencies. The dollar has strengthened a minimum of at least 10% on most of them in the last few months. (and this month we have seen some major strengthening.) Even the indian rupee has lost 20% of its value which means its 20% cheaper now for us to buy their crap and export jobs to them! :P If you look at the USD/CNY you will see that it just started its turnaround too, and in the next few months I believe the USD will gain about 10% there too.(so we should see WMT revenues up! haha)

Business's will start making more money again, hire back all those people they laid off who will in turn start buying all that crap they dont need again. But there will also be people flooding to the US to buy assets as they are freaked about their currency losing value. I think we will see alot of europeans coming here when they see the EURO hit 1.15-1.20 and freaking out that the euro will hit 80 cents to the dollar like it did when it first came out. Think about that. If you thought your currency was going to lose 50% of its value and real estate was still high priced in your country, wouldnt you want to rush to a country that had hit a "bottom" in real estate like the United states?

But more than that is basic psycology. When the doom and gloomers are out in full force and have got joe plumber running scared, its time to go the other way. Just like when all those people on the news were talking about booming real estate prices in 2005 and the the market would not go down it would just "level off" I was busy selling my house and rushing to rent. When all those people thought Visa was going to be the next MA with a 5 fold increase in stock price. I said "no thank you" All those jokers in SIRI that told me buying at 3 dollars was a bargin because they would "merge with XMSR" soon and the price would go to 20. I said no thank you (price is at 34 cents now and i think they still think its going up!)

Also when the next president is elected I think the stock market will go back above 10,000 and for some messed up reason, the new president will get the credit for it doesnt matter who gets elected. (which is why I hope Obama doesnt become president as his "followers" are already deluded enough....they dont need any more encouragement)
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Good call, but a bit simplistic.
 
Quote from nukethewhales31:

thought everyone knew siri was going to 0 about a year 1/2 ago didnt even need a crisis
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For every SIRI bear, there were 5 to 6 SIRI Bulls.

But the funny thing is now that SIRI is 25 cents per share, it almost looks like a buy if you have risk capital to spare. I'm glad half of Howards Salary went down the tubes though since he had alot of stock in SIRI.
 
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