ebay
- Thread starter dtrader98
- Start date
Earnings? In January 2005, they had a penny shortfall to consensus. Consequently a 15 point gap down, and one of the better shorts I've had. (Doral was the best).
1. Could they have made their number had they "wanted" to? Merely a penny.
2. WHO feeds the analysts to arrive at consensus?
3. Is there a distinction between cash and accrual accounting? (Hint: Until 2005, EBAY had beat their number quarter after quarter, yet on the 10-Q they had 5 consecutive YEARS of net operatiing loss carryforwards).
I'll spare you on non-expensed options.
Attached is a chart.
Flags?
Cups & Handles?
Yes, it's broken above an apex. Not much of an accumulation base. Should hit turbulence at $40. Nice big round number. Definitely at $45. There's better trades out there.
I respect your opinion. Few points.
Firstly, 2005 jan is a long time ago, in the grand scheme of things. Not a good argument for future performance.
Second, "WHO feeds the analysts to arrive at consensus?" Irrelevant to argument. You could say this about all companies.
Same goes for non-expensed options.
1) "Until 2005, EBAY had beat their number quarter after quarter"
Not true. They were below on cons 7/03. Trivial pt..
2) I see a flag and a cup and handle, maybe I'll attach it one of these days. Of course like all patterns that is subjective, so argument there debatable.
3) Three quarters of consecutive growth, and significant eps surprises
mean surprise = 10%.
4) Stock has pretty much gone nowhere, even in light of surprises.
5) Hovering at all time P/E low.
6) Forward estimates are up significantly. Meaning P/E forward expectation even lower.
7) If nasdaq leads next leg up, ebay has plenty of room to help drive it up.
8) they just added 1billion to credit line (likely to buy back stocks).
IMO all the events are in place for a swift run up, and the relative strength in the market the last few days corroborates this. Assuming of course, the overall market continues up.
Lastly, the fundamentals and eps surprise performance is much more reliable, while comparable to stocks like amzn -- not to mention p/e.
Well, that's my 2c. Let's let the dice roll where they may.
Foremost I have NO position. Did in 2005.
Long time ago? Matter of perspective. I attached a chart in the "grand scheme" of things, suggesting there are better trades out there.
Sailient point missed. Predator/prey arena needs a lot of prey to feed the machine. One avenue is manipulation under the guise of EPS. Merely an alibi to move paper. And, in 1/05 move it did. 15 point gap (pre-split) will make a dead man cum (paraphrase the Stones). Irrelevant? No conceptual. EPS is a merchandising tool. Where do you think EPS surprises come from? There is no precision in earnings. Yet the penny was the catalyst.
But that was then, this is now. No graphic indication of accumulation, just modest support. Eh.....6 points. Maybe. Dollars from whereever, all spend the same at the grocery store.
P/E low? In 2004, moving UP on a PSR of 26x. I have no idea about 7/03. EBAY is a mature business. Forward estimates. Again, who feeds analysts?
I use EBAY all the time. Never sold anything. Made (5) small purchases just last night. Has nothing to do with the stock.
Stock buy backs are a ploy. Would make more sense at a swing bottom, wouldn't it? Distinction between announced buy backs and covert buybacks (irrespective of increments). Fanfare is a clue.
You've negelected to comment on insider transactions. What's Meg doin'?
Cup & handle. William O'Neil. Little more. Incidently, he owns a specialist firm. Said in one instance he "never" made much money shorting, yet writes a book about the topic. I can assure you his firm actively shorts each day (albeit for brief periods toward inventory posturing).
Naz leading? Nope, it follows. 1999 was an exception. Probably once in a lifetime . Different composition of players. Different market maker complexion and identity of ax less clear. Far less aggregate money involved. In fact, I can't construct a reliable A/D or H/L indicator from raw NAZ data. However, INTC and MSFT make great shills (being on all three major indices). Mask carnage now and then.
Had a pretty nice run up over the last quarter. Considering how oversea sales and lower dollar has been benefiting most of the companies so far, it looks like ebay has a lot more room to benefit on this quarters numbers.
My vote is that she'll deliver on the numbers, how the market responds is another matter. Although, as I've said before, it looks like Qs are trying to make up the slack for financials and possible energy pullback.
They already pushed up yhoo on mediocre numbers, and rimm already got the boost. Ebay's in the right spot to be here.
Not that max pain usually means much, but OE at 35 in two days certainly raises some caution on the long upside response. Might hold off on opening new positions in anticipation of news IMO.
If the results are great and they pull back, good time to open new position would be after OE. And that's assuming market uptrend is still intact.